MLB Free Agents: Who Do You Take, Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford?

Perhaps the two biggest position player free agents this winter are outfielders Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford. Many teams are expected to be bidding for their services, but the Boston Red Sox in particular seem to be desperate to land one of them.

Although Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, who both missed considerable time in the 2010 campaign, will be healthy to start the season, Theo Epstein and the Red Sox organization want to bring in an outfielder that they can slot into the middle of their line-up and count on for defense.

Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford are the two most logical free agent choices for the Red Sox, and many writers expect one of them to sign with Boston; but who is the best fit? Putting money aside, which player is better suited to help the Red Sox get back to the playoffs in the 2011 season?

When trying to decide which player is right for his team, the first thing a general manager has to do is look at the stats of the players in question. Below I created a table to allow us to easily compare the important statistics between Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth.

(Note: Crawford is 29-years-old with nine seasons in MLB; Werth is 31 with eight season in MLB). Pay close attention to the numbers/categories I embolded, as those are key bits of information that require special attention.

Stat Category	Carl Crawford in 2010	Jayson Werth 2010	Carl Crawford Career	Jayson Werth Career
Games	154	156	1235	775
Batting Average	.307	.296	.296	.272
On-Base Percentage	.356	.388	.337	.367
Stolen Bases	47	13	409	77
Home runs	19	27	104	120
Doubles	30	46	215	138
Triples	13	2	105	15
Grounded Into Double Plays	2	11	56	39
Home/Away BA	.300/.313	.320/.270	.305/.289	.280/.263
2 out, RISP BA	.339	.139	.298	.239
Vs. Power/Finesse Pitcher, BA	.315/.325	.262/.342	.266/.319	.232/.299
BA of Hits pulled	.469	.546	.442	.476
BA of Hits to Opp Field	.303	.256	.330	.306
Flyball BA	.241	.299	.202	.292
Ground Ball/Fly Ball/Line Drive Hits	76/42/63	49/50/65	595/257/605	187/211/284
Wins Above Replacement	4.8	5.2	26.1	18.7
Runs Above Replacement	47	52	260	184
Errors	2	4	25	21
Ranger Factor Per Game	2.13	1.97	2.27	2.06

There is a lot of information in this table, so to be thorough, let's run through each category and analyze what the numbers tell us and find out who has the edge in each.

• Games: Crawford has played in over 450 more games than Werth, while he has been in MLB for only one more season. Two schools of thought here: A) Werth's durability will be more reliable because his body hasn't taken as much abuse or B) Crawford's durability is more reliable because he is younger and has proven he can handle playing consistently, Werth has not. I subscribed to the latter school of thought. (Edge-Crawford)
• Batting Average: Although Werth improved his BA this year, he simply is not a .300 hitter. Even in the hitter friendly park of Citizen's Bank, Werth was not able to get the BA above .300.  (Edge-Crawford)
• On-Base Percentage: Crawford's OBP has been on the rise the last few years; his discipline at the plate has improved and thus he is drawing more walks. While Werth still drew almost double the amount of walks to Crawford, part of that is because no pitcher would want to walk Crawford and put his speed on base and also Longoria and Pena were behind him so pitchers have great incentive to throw strikes to Crawford. Werth, however, doesn't have the same speed and was usually followed by Ibanez and Rollins, so walking him wasn't always a bad option. For those reasons, although Werth's OBP is higher and he probably has a bit more discipline at the plate, I give this a tie. (Edge-Neither) 
• Stolen Bases: Werth has speed, but Crawford is a road-runner. Crawford's ability to steal or take a base is unprecedented in baseball. If he can stay healthy (he's played in at least 140 games 7/8 of his full seasons) his speed will be a big asset. Remember, speed never slumps.    (Edge-Crawford)
• Home runs: This can be another deceptive category because Crawford has more pop than he is given credit for. He hit 19 home runs this year, 11 of which were in pitcher friendly Tropicana Field. Given the right ballpark, and the right guys behind him in the line-up, I think Crawford can hit 25 plus home runs in a season. That said, while Crawford has pop, Werth has power. I fully expect Werth to be able to produce more long-balls deeper into his career than Crawford will. For that reason, Werth has to have the edge. (Edge-Werth)
• Doubles: Werth hit 46 doubles in 2010 (that led MLB). Almost 1/3 of Werth's career doubles came in 2010; to me that screams caution. How many players have had exceptional years in their contract year season only to never match that production again? Too many, and that is something a GM needs to be VERY careful about (especially in contracts involving the money and years these guys will get). Werth, except for 2010, has never hit more than 26 doubles in a season; Crawford, on the other hand, has broken the 25 doubles mark in five of his eight full seasons.(Edge-Crawford)
• Triples: Doesn't get easier to call than this one. (Edge-Crawford)
• Grounded Into Double Plays: The career numbers are a bit deceptive here. As it would suggest, Werth is better at avoiding hitting into double plays than Crawford is; however, when we look at the number of games played, we see why Werth's number is lower. The 2010 stats tell the tale: Crawford's great speed equals less grounded into double plays. Also, the reason I embolded this category was because nothing kills a team more than hitting into a double play; avoiding a double plays means the team has more chances to create a rally/runs. (Edge-Crawford)
• Home vs. Away Batting Average: Werth's 2010 stats, in this category, got embolded because I always worry about what happens to a hitter when he leaves a hitter-friendly ballpark. In Werth's case, I think his 2010 stats really show what happens in that scenario. Now the Red Sox have a hitter-friendly park, but if Crawford put up a .300 average in a pitcher's park then I can assume his numbers will only go up playing 81 games in a hitter-friendly park. (Edge-Crawford)
• Two Outs, Running In Scoring Position Batting Average: This one surprised me a little bit, especially the career stat for Werth. For all the great hitting the Phillies have done, this says Werth wasn't getting it done when it counted the most. For a team looking to compete in the toughest division in baseball, Werth's stat here has to scare you. Two out RBIs are usually what separates good from great teams (look at the SF Giants—they didn't have the best hitting, but they had timely hitting and that's the only hitting that matters). (Edge-Crawford) 
• Batting Average vs. Power and Finesse Pitcher: Crawford has a great year this year, hitting both types of pitchers, but his career stats suggest we should chalk that up to a contact-year high. Werth isn't nearly as good, but he was closer to his career stats in 2010 than Crawford was. Although Crawford may have a slight edge since Werth was more consistent I'll call it even as I expect a big drop in Crawford's 2011 numbers—especially against a power pitcher.           (Edge-Neither)
• Batting Average When Pulling the Ball: This stat's trend is showing that Werth is becoming more of a pull hitter as he matures. For the Red Sox that may not be a bad thing given the short distance to their LF wall. For that reason, I give Werth a slight edge. (Edge-Werth)
• Batting Average When Hitting the Ball to the Opposite Field: A really important category, because opposite-field hits are how to define great hitters. When a scout looks at a hitter the first thing they want to know is can he go they other way. While Werth's career numbers are good, his 2010 season goes with the trend that he is pulling more batted balls each year. If I am a GM I need to be afraid of this because if you can't go the other way you have a hole in your swing; and that hole only gets bigger the older you get and the more pitchers figure you out.       (Edge-Crawford)
• Batting Average on Fly Balls Hit: This category is similar to home runs as it shows Werth's power; although a Texas-Leaguer fly ball can drop in the shallow outfield for a hit, this stat mostly shows Werth has a far greater ability to hit the ball over outfielders heads.                    (Edge-Werth)
• Number of Hits Via GB, FB, LD: As expected, both players get a lot of hits off of line drives. Also, as I expected, Crawford has a lot of ground ball hits. However, a surprise to me was Werth's balance between ground ball and fly ball hits. I thought he would have a far greater number of fly ball hits than ground ball hits. For that, I give this a tie; Werth shows a balanced swing, while Crawford does what he should be doing: hitting line drives and ground balls.            (Edge-Neither)
• Wins Above Replacement: A useful sabermetrics category telling us how many wins the player alone is worth. The 2010 stats are similar but the careers are not; this is because Werth hasn't played in as many games. Thus we can throw out the career stats and call this a tie. (Edge-Neither)
• Runs Above Replacement: Same situation as Wins Above Replacement, both players seem equal in this category. (Edge-Neither)
• Errors: While the numbers are pretty even, in reality Crawford has the advantage here; this is because Crawford covers more ground in the outfield and thus is able to make more plays. So while Werth is a good defender for the balls in his range, Crawford is a good defender for an even bigger range. (Edge-Crawford)
• Range Factor Per Game: This stat category is a bit deceptive because the numbers would show Crawford as the clear favorite when, in reality it isn't that simple. To calculate this number you add put outs and assists and divide it by the games played. What is dragging Werth's number down is assists; this is not because he doesn't make any but because his strong arm is so well known in the league that runners don't challenge him anymore, and thus he does not have the opportunity to get assists. Crawford has a good arm but his range (ability to make put outs) is what drives his number up. So with Crawford having more put outs and Werth having the stronger arm, I call this a tie. Also, a nice advantage both players have is that they have experience playing all three outfield positions. While this doesn't break our tie, it does add to the value of both players. (Edge-Neither)

Ultimately, both players have a lot of talent and would be a good addition to most teams; that said, however, I think Crawford would be the better choice for the Red Sox. In my opinion he is the better player who has more to offer, in all aspects of the game.

The Red Sox do have a bit of comfort in knowing they can have a DH, so should Werth's defense ever become an issue they can make him a DH and still have a power bat in the line-up and thus he can still have considerable value to the team. 

With Crawford, when his legs go, his value will go; everything will drop: BA, steals, doubles, triples, his range, etc. and unfortunately being a DH will only delay the problem (by giving him rest), it won't solve it.

Nonetheless, even with that, if the Red Sox want to add a piece to help them win now, Crawford is there guy. His legs should be fine for at least three to four more seasons and his wide range of abilities makes him an excellent addition.

Can you imagine Ellsbury and Crawford at the top of the order? RBI hitters won't be needed as they could both just steal all the bases.

Plus Crawford has the added bonus of not having Scott Boras as his agent; he's a tough negotiator and Werth, who is a Boras client, could come at too high of a cost.

Even disregarding the money, I think the Red Sox should go with Crawford; he's younger and his stats suggest he is the better all-around player.  But when you add Boras into the mix for Werth, I think the choice to go with Crawford becomes that more clear.