NFL Week 10 Picks: Are the Lions the Buffalo Bills' Last Chance for a Win?
Week 10 of the 2010 NFL season is upon us, and it's time to make our picks.
There's some pretty interesting lines for this week's action, including several that have winning teams as underdogs. We'll drop some knowledge for those games, as well as some for the big Sunday night matchup between the Patriots and Steelers.
So grab your wallet and sharpen your mind. You're about to be hit with a list that counts down from the games to avoid to the total locks.
When it's over, I promise that your picks will be sound, and your pocketbook will be thicker come Tuesday.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
1 of 14
Line: Pittsburgh (-4.5)
Why New England Can Win: Their defense may have gotten torched by trickery and the like, but you have to figure that the loss against the Browns was an anomaly for Bill Belichick's team. They held the ball for less than 22 minutes, and that's not going to happen again.
We keep finding out every week that Pittsburgh is far from immortal on defense, and the Pats have the second-highest scoring offense in the land. It's impossible to run on the Steelers, so Brady will have to throw them to death. He's one of the few quarterbacks in the league who can do that.
Why Pittsburgh Can Win: If you can stop Tom Brady, then you can stop the Patriots. However, Pittsburgh's pass defense has been troublesome in the past weeks, giving up an average of 272.8 yards in their last four games. They need to shore that up, and then go to work picking apart New England's soft defense. A steady diet of Rashard Mendenhall should do the trick, as it usually does.
Aside from that, all Pittsburgh really needs to do is not let up in the fourth quarter, where they've allowed more than 60 points this year.
Prediction: Tricky line, as it's probably going to be a close one. But I'll take Pittsburgh by five.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
2 of 14
Line: Atlanta (-1)
Why Baltimore Can Win: This is your classic great-offense-versus-great-defense kind of game. And in those, you always have to give the defense the benefit of the doubt. The Ravens run defense is particularly great, as they have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in five games. That will obviously help them against Michael Turner.
Offensively, the Ravens need to find a way to wear down Atlanta's very tough run defense. Joe Flacco is going to have to be careful throwing the ball, as the Falcons are tied for second in the league with 13 interceptions. Good for him, then, that he hasn't thrown a pick in three games.
Why Atlanta Can Win: The biggest reason the Falcons can win this game is because it's at home, and they'll have Matt Ryan under center. He's 17-1 at home in his career, including 13 straight.
But you have to worry about Roddy White, who went down with a twisted knee on Sunday and has had only four days to heal. The Ravens allow barely more than 200 yards passing every game, so Ryan is going to need White to be his healthy self if they want to overcome the Ravens.
Prediction: The spread is basically asking me, "Do you think Atlanta will win?" I don't. Baltimore will win by three.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
3 of 14
Line: Indianapolis (-7)
Why Cincinnati Can Win: The Colts defense does not play into the hands of the Bengals offense, as the Colts are allowing only 203 passing yards per game. Thus, it might be a good idea to give Cedric Benson a few more carries.
The good news for Carson Palmer is that he's probably going to have more time to throw than he did against Pittsburgh. In addition, the Colts are still banged up on offense.
Why Indianapolis Can Win: It's a patchwork affair at both running back and wide receiver for the Colts these days. Their loss against Philadelphia had a lot to do with Peyton Manning's struggles, which is exactly why you have to like the Colts this week. Peyton had his worst game of the season against Philly, and he's not going to duplicate the effort right away against the hapless Bengals.
Prediction: It's a big spread against a team with an offense like the Bengals...but I'll take the Colts in this one by eight.
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Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
4 of 14
Line: Buffalo (-3)
Why Detroit Can Win: Some better play-calling at the end of last week's game, and Detroit is probably coming into this game on a winning high. Instead, they lost Matthew Stafford in a losing effort, and are probably doomed for the rest of the season.
With Shaun Hill and his freshly-healed arm under center, it might be a good idea for them to turn Jahvid Best loose against the league's worst rush defense.
Why Buffalo Can Win: They've come really close to getting their first win of the season three weeks in a row, so it's not as hopeless for the Bills as you might think. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Steve Johnson have a pretty good thing going, as Johnson has six touchdowns in his last five games, and 340 yards in his last three.
Detroit's pass defense is mediocre, so look for that to keep on keeping on.
Prediction: I like the Bills by three. It'll happen.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
5 of 14
Line: Arizona (-3)
Why Seattle Can Win: If Matt Hasselbeck can go, then Seattle's chances are only slightly better than null. If he can't go, their chances are still only slightly better than null. The Seahawks are a bad team, and it's finally starting to look like the league is getting around to realizing that.
Their best bet in this game is to get in on the pick-party that is Derek Anderson. But the Seahawks have only six all season. They are, however, tied for fourth in sacks at 21, and Arizona is tied for second in sacks allowed at 28. There's an edge for you.
Why Arizona Can Win: Buck up, Cardinals. You should have beaten Old Man Favre and his troupe of purple headline eaters. Your best bet against Seattle is to manhandle Hasselbeck if you get the chance. Do your best Oakland impression and sack the over-the-hill son of a gun eight times.
If not, don't worry. The Seahawks have been outscored 74-10 in their last two, and are giving up an inordinate number of big plays. Dial up Larry Fitzgerald and see if he can't add to that thread.
Prediction: Arizona by six.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
6 of 14
Line: Jacksonville (-2)
Why Houston Can Win: If that ball doesn't go off Andre Johnson's knee, we might be sitting here talking about a gutsy comeback against the Chargers. Instead, we're talking about a team whose success appears to be hanging by a thread.
The good news for the Texans is that their porous secondary doesn't face as tall of a task as it has in their last two games, as there are only a few teams in the league that total fewer passing yards every week than the Jags. Jacksonville's defense really isn't all that good, so you have to like the Texans' chances.
Why Jacksonville Can Win: Then again, maybe David Garrard can repeat the kind of effort he had against Dallas. It may have been two weeks ago, but Garrard has the hot hand. In addition, Andre Johnson's ankle was clearly bothering him against San Diego, and Schaub took a nasty shot to his ribs that might effect his performance this week as well.
Prediction: I'm not buying Houston's two-game losing streak. They'll win by three.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
7 of 14
Line: Minnesota (-2)
Why Minnesota Can Win: Minnesota's biggest advantage could come from flipping the script. Instead of throwing interceptions on offense, they should focus on getting some on defense. Jay Cutler will throw them in bunches on occasion.
On offense, Brett Favre is going to need to help out Adrian Peterson by making some plays and opening up the box. The Bears defense, after all, is third in the NFL against the run.
Why Chicago Can Win: It seems like I call for more touches for Matt Forte every week, and not just because he's on my fantasy team. Forte is probably their biggest weapon on offense, and it baffles me that he hasn't gotten 20-25 touches week in and week out.
That being said, you have to like how Chicago's defense stacks up against Peterson and Favre. The Bears are tied for third in the league with 11 interceptions, and Favre does have a tendency to throw them.
Prediction: I don't know why the Vikings are favored. Because they beat Arizona? Big deal. I'll take Chicago by three.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
8 of 14
Line: Tennessee (-1.5)
Why Tennessee Can Win: Randy Moss may not be the answer to Tennessee's surprisingly mediocre passing game (198.1 yards per game), but he will spread the field. And that's good news for Chris Johnson.
The Dolphins rush defense is solid, but it still seems like a mega-game for Johnson is long overdue. On defense, expect the Titans to welcome Chad Pennington back with a beastly pass rush (26 sacks this season).
Why Miami Can Win: Well, Chad Henne was pretty bad in the Dolphins' last five games, and they were either victorious or competitive in all of them. In addition, it's probably just a matter of time before the Fins get their first home win.
Their biggest challenge? Limiting the turnovers. They're minus-eight in losses, and plus-one in wins.
Prediction: Good spread for Tennessee. They'll win by seven.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
9 of 14
Line: New York (-14)
Why New York Can Win: The Giants have risen to the top of the NFC by beating up on bad teams, and they'll get a chance to rise even higher in this game. The Giants would do well to do exactly what they did against the Cowboys a couple weeks ago. Except this time, they need to keep their foot on the gas for all four quarters, a la Green Bay.
The one thing that's likely to be different about the 'Boys this time around is their effort level, as there's bound to be an improvement in that department over what we've seen the last couple weeks.
The Giants need to let the Cowboys beat themselves by being overly aggressive. Wouldn't that be ironic?
Why Dallas Can Win: As I just hinted, it can't possibly get any worse under Jason Garrett, who hopefully told his team that there's still plenty of time to salvage some dignity. But never mind Garrett and the offense.
The defense needs to pick it up and actually stop somebody. This will be tough without Marcus Spears for the rest of the season, but they can start by at least allowing less than 400 yards of offense in this one. If they can do that, the fact that their offense can still move the ball (359.3 yards per game) should help balance things out.
Prediction: That's a huge spread...but I'll take it. Giants by 17.
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers
10 of 14
Line: San Francisco (-6)
Why St. Louis Can Win: The Rams will open a stretch of four out of five on the road, where they have yet to win this year. While that would explain why the Niners are favored, the Rams can definitely win this game.
With every 49ers game, it's a matter of containing Frank Gore and making the rest of the team beat you. Since the Rams allow less than 100 yards rushing every game, they have the advantage there. Sam Bradford could very well have a big game against a defense that gives up more than 330 yards through the air every game.
Why San Francisco Can Win: They won't have Alex Smith, but they will have Troy Smith. They will also have a healthy Vernon Davis, as the bye week gave his ankle plenty of time to heal. But the biggest factor in this game could be Troy Smith's improvisational skills, which came out in a big way in the fourth quarter of their win over Denver.
Now that his receivers know his tendencies, the 49ers might be able to salvage more drives than they would have under the other Smith. That will help keep their defense fresh, if nothing else.
Prediction: Too big a spread for a team that has won only two games. Take St. Louis.
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
11 of 14
Line: New York (-3.5)
Why New York Can Win: The Jets were lucky to get a win this week, and they really haven't played well at all in their last two games. I wonder how much of this has to do with the fact that it looks like LT is really slowing down.
Regardless, I don't think Cleveland will be able to drop 34 on the Jets like they did against the Pats, especially since it was more of matter of the Pats being sloppy than it was of the Browns being good. And if Cleveland doesn't drop 34, then they won't be able to hang with the Jets.
Why Cleveland Can Win: Will those plays from the back of the playbook work two weeks in a row? Well, Eric Mangini might just be willing to try if it means another win against a former employer. He tends to hold those grudges, after all.
Regardless, it's hard to find any one area where the Browns stack up well against the Jets, so they need to hope for more trickiness and for even more mature play from Colt McCoy.
Prediction: Tricky spread, as I only like the Jets to win by three. Take the Browns.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
12 of 14
Line: Philadelphia (-3)
Why Philadelphia Can Win: The Redskins were the team who knocked Mike Vick out for a couple games, so he'll probably be looking for retribution here. To get it, he just needs to do what he's been doing.
We're seeing an incredible rebound from Vick, as he has had a huge game whenever he's played all four quarters of a given game. His strength is eating up yardage, and the 'Skins allow more yards per game than anyone except Houston. Advantage Vick.
Why Washington Can Win: McNabb has had a full two weeks to rest himself, which is apparently needed if you were to listen to his coach. But regardless of McNabb, the Skins need to find a way to limit Vick and pull out another scrappy win that they've specialized in this year.
That would involve taking the big catch away from DeSean Jackson as much as it does doing something like putting a spy on Vick. But that's for the defensive coordinator to decide.
Prediction: Philadelphia will win big. Eagles by 10.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
13 of 14
Line: Tampa Bay (-7)
Why Carolina Can Win: A hapless rookie at quarterback. Three running backs down with injuries. A defense that's on the field way too much.
Umm...yeah...
Why Tampa Bay Can Win: If ever there were a good time to host the Panthers, this is it. The Bucs may do nothing really well, but they are a winning team, which gives them the edge.
I wonder if they'll try giving LeGarrette Blount more carries early this time around, as it seems like Raheem Morris would rather use him to hammer opponents in the second half.
Prediction: Another awkward spread, but Carolina is bad enough for me to take it. Give me Tampa by nine.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
14 of 14
Line: Kansas City (-1)
Why Kansas City Can Win: The Chiefs came within a great catch by Jacoby Ford from escaping Oakland with a win, but they really didn't play all that well. They got a lot of help from the officials (typical Oakland game), and they simply could not run a ball worth a darn.
They definitely need to get back to the latter against Denver, who couldn't stop the run if they built a wall. Their defense is dreadful, and their offense is pretty darn one-dimensional, come to think of it.
Why Denver Can Win: Kansas City is a better story than they are a team, but the Broncos are in no position to knock them down a peg. They've had two weeks to wash away the wounds from their overseas loss to the 49ers, but the fact of the matter is Denver is quite simply a bad team.
However, Kansas City can be passed on, and Kyle Orton is having a pretty good season chucking the ball, so perhaps it's not as bad as it looks.
Prediction: Yes, Kansas City will win. And they'll win by six.
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