MLB Free Agent Primer: What To Look for This Offseason

As of 12:01 Sunday morning, the free agent signing period began in baseball. Will you see players signing with teams at 12:05 like in the NFL and NBA? No, you won’t.

Like in years past, this will be a very long offseason in baseball. Just like last year, you will see some quality players still available going into the month of February. However, with the economy picking up somewhat over the last 12 months, I expect things to progress faster than normal.

With the free agent signing period just a mere 48 hours old, here is a free agent primer on this year’s batch of free agents.

Best Free Agent Starting Pitcher: Cliff Lee. A no brainer here. Lee is by far and away the best starting pitcher available this offseason. The 32-year-old lefty is entering the prime of his career and should command a five or six year contract.

Lee has two, top-five Cy Young award finishes and he won the AL award in 2008. His 2.13 career postseason ERA has only helped his stock over the years.

Crawford will be a wanted man this offseason

Best Free Agent Hitter: Carl Crawford. Like Lex Lugar, Crawford is the total package. He can hit. He can hit for some power. He can run like the wind. And he can play leftfield like no other.

Baring injury, Crawford will be good for double-digit triples and home runs, 50 plus steals, and a .300 batting average. Crawford will have his suitors, but I expect him to end up with either the Boston Red Sox or Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

The sleeper team for Crawford? The Oakland A’s.

Best Free Agent Relief Pitcher: Rafael Soriano. Now I know Mariano Rivera is a free agent, but nobody expects him to leave the New York Yankees, so while he technically is a free agent, that’s not really the case. Eliminating Rivera makes for the second year in a row, Soriano the best free agent relief pitcher on the market.

Soriano had a banner year in Tampa, posting a 1.73 ERA in 62.1 innings. He brought stability and dominance to the backend of the Rays’ bullpen. The Angels seem to be front runners with a chance the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks get into the mix.

Biggest Free Agent Hitter Bust: Paul Konerko. A 34-year-old who finds the fountain of youth, usually doesn’t find it twice. Konerko hit an absurd .312/.393/.584 with 39 HR’s in 2010. His .584 slugging percentage was a career high.

In the two years prior to 2010, Konerko averaged .260/.349/.466 with 25 HR’s. Not bad numbers, but he won’t be worth the contract he is going to get based on his 2010 numbers.

Biggest Free Agent Bust Starting Pitcher: Jorge de la Rosa. De la Rosa was a ham n’ egger for years, has one good year in Colorado (2009), and now might get $30 – $40 million over three or four years? No thanks.

Sure he throws in the upper-90′s, but he has only made 30 plus starts just once in his career and has way too many control issues for my liking.

Perfect Match Most Likely To Happen: Victor Martinez to the Detroit Tigers. A lot people are wondering how the Philadelphia Phillies are just going to let Jayson Werth walk away from them and I am wondering how the Red Sox can just let Martinez vanish like a fart in the wind.

Martinez offensively had a really good run in a Red Sox uniform. He hit .313/.383/.497 in 183 games with the Red Sox. When the next best option is John Buck (the Allard Baird connection in the Red Sox front office will land Buck in Boston), I have a hard time believing Boston is just going to let him go.

What is Boston’s loss will be Detroit’s gain.

Perfect Match Most Likely NOT To Happen: Orlando Hudson To The New York Mets: Hudson wanted to play for the Mets last year and it didn’t happen. He wants to play for them again this year and it won’t happen again.

Hudson is just what the Mets need, but since Luis Castillo and his horrific contract are holding down the fort at second base, Hudson will need to look for work somewhere else. The Mets could release Castillo and sign Hudson, but I don’t see it happening.

Biggest Free Agent Surprise: Cliff Lee will NOT sign with the Yankees. The Yankees need a starting pitcher and when the Yankees want something, they usually get it. However, I think this is Greg Maddux Part 2 for the Yankees.

The Yankees did everything they could to lure Maddux to New York in the winter of 1992, but Maddux never was in love with New York and decided to take less money to sign with Atlanta. I see the Lee situation playing out the same way.

Lee is a southern guy, whose Arkansas home is just three hours away from Arlington. The Rangers have some money to play with and I think Lee takes less money to sign with them.

Best Low-Risk, High Reward Hitter: Jorge Cantu. I know I am definitely in the minority with Cantu and I know he was poop with Texas, but there are a couple of things I like about him.

1. He is only 29. It’s not like he is 36 and toast.

2. The last time we wrote off Cantu, he responded with a 29 HR season in 2008.

He would be a nice fit with the Seattle Mariners or Kansas City Royals.

All Thome does is produce

Best Low-Risk, High-Reaward Hitter Part II: Jim Thome: Someone should tell Thome he will be 40 next year. All this guy does is produce year after year.

Thome signed a one-year, $1.5 million contract last year. For their $1.5 million, the Twins got 25 HR’s and a .412 OBP. The guy is a machine.

Best Low-Risk, High Reward Starting Pitcher: Jeremy Bonderman. It seems like Bonderman has been around forever, but he is only 28. After missing the better part of two seasons because of arm injuries, Bonderman returned last season and posted a 5.53 ERA in 171 innings.

In 2011, Bonderman will be entering his second full season since the injuries and I don’t see why he can’t be the pitcher he once was in 2005 and 2006. While that was never a great pitcher, he should be able to outperform the one-year contract he is going to get.

Pitchers Who Have To Sign In The NL In Order To Be Successful: Javier Vazquez and Jon Garland. American League teams should really stay away from these guys. Hopefully both of these guys know where their bread is buttered and won’t pull a Jeff Weaver after the 2006 season.

Worst Pitcher To Be This Offseason: Dan Wheeler. Wheeler is a Type A Free Agent and is terrible. Not the best combination in the world.

Worst Hitter To Be This Offseason: Miguel Tejada. Tejada is a Type A Free Agent and has clearly seen his best days behind him. He is an average hitter these days and is 37. I think a return to San Diego might be likely.

This Year’s Aubrey Huff: Lyle Overbay. When the San Francisco Giants signed Huff last year, I really scratched my head. I will probably do the same thing when a team signs Overbay.

However, if a team is looking for a stopgap for a year at first before Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez become free agents in 2012, Overbay would be a nice fit. Teams can do worse than find a guy who hits 20 HR’s every year with 30 plus doubles and plays a solid first base.

Relief Pitcher Who The Casual Fan Has Never Heard Of, But Will Get Plenty Of Love: Scott Downs. Downs is just solid. Over the last four years, he has posted a 2.36 ERA in the AL East. That is no joke.

Downs could find himself in a bidding war between the Yankees and Red Sox.

Non-Tender Candidate Sleeper: Conor Jackson. I nailed Kelly Johnson last year, and I have the same feeling with Jackson. Jackson will most likely be non-tendered a contract by the Oakland A’s and I think he can be a comeback player in 2011.

Before Injuries and a rare case of Valley Fever ruined Jackson’s last two years in the Major Leagues, Jackson was a guy who hit .300 with a .370 OBP and hit 12 -15 HR’s.

I think he can do that again in 2011 if healthy.

You can find a full list of this year’s free agents here.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg