NFL Week 9 Predictions: Cleveland Browns Will Upset New England Patriots
As Cleveland prepares for its game against the New England Patriots, media experts and various pundits have all but put this game into the "W" column for New England.
The "experts" said the same thing about the New Orleans game, and we all know how that turned out right?
Over the last three years, Cleveland has defeated the last three defending Super Bowl Champions: New York Giants in 2008 on Monday Night Football, Pittsburgh in 2009 in a memorable eight-sack clinic on Ben Roethlisberger and most recently the David Bowens-led four interception clinic courtesy of Drew Brees.
So the Cleveland Browns have a Notre Dame-like flair for pulling upsets recently, and I can see another upset coming today.
While Cleveland is a 4.5 point underdog at home to 6-1 New England, don't sleep on the Browns, who look primed for another NFL shocker.
No. 1: The Browns Are Well Rested and Coming Off a Big Win
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Fresh from a big win over the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints, the Browns are fully healed up over the bye and will have running back Peyton Hillis ready to run hard and tough at New England, who scratched out a hard-fought 28-18 win over the Minnesota Vikings last week.
Wide receivers Mohammed Massaqoui and Joshua Cribbs have recovered from concussions and should help rookie starting QB Colt McCoy in the passing game.
No. 2: Statistics Can Sometimes Lie
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There is a old Mark Twain saying that goes, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." Twain also said that, facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable."
In the case of the New England Patriots, their NFL-best 6-1 record is a fact, but their body of work and quality of opponent may be a little white lie.
Of the seven teams that they have played, four of them (Cincinnati, Buffalo, San Diego and Minnesota) have losing records and they needed overtime to defeat Baltimore, 23-20.
The Pats are 2-1 vs teams with winning records, with their only loss coming in Week 3, a 28-14 defeat against the New York Jets.
What is really interesting is that the Patriots lead the NFL in scoring at almost 29.3 points per game, but they also have the 31st ranked pass defense (282.4 yards a game), and have the 28th ranked overall defense (384.0 yards a game).
The Patriots defense can't stop anyone, and needs Tom Brady to bail them out. I think Cleveland will pick up on this and get pressure on Brady, making his day a little less pleasant.
No. 3: Cleveland's Defense Is Better Thank Most "Experts" Think
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Cleveland's defense doesn't get nearly enough credit for keeping the Browns in a lot of close games this year. Of Cleveland's five losses, four have been by 10 points or less, with the exception of an 18-point loss to Pittsburgh.
Cleveland's defense is the 12th best in the league, giving up 20.3 points a game. It is a lot more improved from last year, and with the addition of Scott Fujita, Joe Haden and T.J Ward, the Browns have a more bend-don't-break mentality, but have a bad tendency of giving up big plays.
It is a very good chance that Eric Wright will get the assignment of covering Pats slot receiver Wes Welker, and Joe Haden could get either Brandon Tate or Aaron Hernandez.
Look for the Browns secondary to get tested early and often by Brady, and hope that Ward will provide help over the top, as Brady loves to go deep. If the Browns can get in Brady's face and make him uncomfortable, then they have a chance.
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No. 4: Colt McCoy Has a Chance To Solidfy Himself As the Browns Starting QB
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With Eric Mangini confirming the obvious that McCoy will once again start against the Patriots, this is the smartest decision that Mangini can make with two veteran quarterbacks recovering from high ankle sprains. It is also the most logical.
McCoy is 1-1 so far. A win over the Patriots would not only finally clarify the Cleveland Browns starting quarterback dilemma, but will be one less headache for Holmgren, Heckert and Mangini to worry about going forward.
Please also consider that McCoy hasn't just started his NFL career against any Big 12 cupcakes, as Pittsburgh, New Orleans and New England have a combined 16-6 record.
No. 5: Joshua Cribbs Will Be More Featured in the Offense
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Cleveland Browns All-Pro PR/KR Joshua Cribbs will be fully recovered from his concussion, and although he did play a vital role in the Browns' upset over New Orleans, look for him to be featured more against the Pats porous pass defense.
Obviously, the Patriots will not kick directly to Cribbs on kickoffs or punt returns, so look for Cleveland to try to get the ball into his hands from the slot, Wildcat and other various formations.
New England's defense is nowhere near the great defenses in the early '00's, and I expect Mangini and Daboll to take advantage of this young and inexperienced defense.
If anything, look for Cribbs to be used as a decoy in a attempt to loosen up the Pats defense and give McCoy some areas in the field to exploit.
No. 6: Look For Benjamin Watson To Have a Big Game
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Currently the Cleveland Browns' leading receiver in receptions, targets, yards and receiving touchdowns, look for Watson to have a big game against his former team, who let him go via free agency.
The New England defense is one of the most vulnerable against the pass, especially to tight ends, as the Patriots give up the fifth-most receiving yards in the NFL.
Watson has averaged about 60 yards receiving in three home games and would love to make the Patriots regret letting him walk.
If you have Watson in your fantasy football league, he is worth a start.
No. 7: Peyton Hillis Is Fully Healed
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The Cleveland Browns could not be in a better position to win against New England with Hillis being fully healed over the bye. He will give the Cleveland the tough inside bruising and physical weapon it needs to use against New England.
A serious Pro Bowl candidate, Hillis can solidify a spot in the Hawaii with another Hillis-like game. Look for McCoy to get the ball to him on screen passes and delayed handoffs. With Hillis' versatility out of the backfield, he will be a tough matchup for the New England.
Look for fellow running backs Mike Bell and recent waiver-wire pickup and former New England Patriot Thomas Clayton to also be featured as New England will try to load the box and stop Hillis.
No. 8: Pats Are Thin in the Secondary
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The New England Patriots will be missing their starting strong safety Patrick Chung according to ESPNBoston.com, and with him out the Patriots will be down to three active safeties (Brandon Meriweather, James Sanders and rookie Sergio Brown). Their 29th ranked pass defense cannot afford any more losses.
Look for Daboll to exploit this huge hole in the Pats defense with Watson, which is why he will have a big game.
No. 9: The Pats Are "Expected" To Win
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The Patriots are 6-1 and have Tom Brady. New England is 4-0 against Cleveland since 2001, Belichick is 6-2 vs. Mangini, the Browns are starting a rookie QB against Bill Belichick, Cleveland has no wide receivers, etc.
The Browns have nothing to lose if they play loose and aggressive, because they are already 2-5. With Tom Brady and the Patriots coming to town, they are supposed to be an "easy" win.
Snow is in the forecast, a loud and very vocal Dawg Pound will be cheering and the Browns are coming off its third upset over the defending Super Bowl champion in the last three years.
This sure looks like a easy seventh win for New England right?
No. 10: Mangini Really Wants To Beat Belichick
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Bill Belichick-Eric Mangini.
Make no mistake, there is no love lost between these two. Their icy feelings towards each other are so frigid that either man would have to go to the North Pole just to defrost.
Chilly indeed.
Belichick is 6-2 vs Mangini from their days as rival coaches with the Jets and Patriots respectfully, and there is that whole "Spygate" thing that Belichick hasn't quite gotten over.
Mangini used to look up to and admire Belichick like a father, kind of like the Luke Skywalker-Darth Vader dynamic. But the evil Sith Lord is a true master of football inside and out, offensively skilled and a defensive genius.
This is a classic protege-mentor grudge match if there ever was one.
In this game, Mangini has nothing to lose and Belichick everything to gain. A loss to his one-time protege, now outcast as a rat and pariah, will be shocking to say the least.
Which is why I smell blood in the water.
Prediction: Browns 24, New England 23
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Make no mistake, this is a bold prediction, and I will admit to going out on a major limb.
Considering my reasons as to why and what will actually occur are two different things. I sense that the Browns, with having two weeks to prepare for the NFL's first-half MVP in Tom Brady and a future Hall-of-Fame coach in Bill Belichick, are not to be overlooked.
Also consider that the game is in Cleveland, and the Pats just played a tough and physical Vikings team.
The Patriots must also travel to a snowy North without Patrick Chung, which will leave a huge hole in their defense that Daboll and McCoy will attack.
The Patriots are a good 6-1 football team, but not a great 6-1 team. If the Jets can beat them with a second-year QB in Mark Sanchez, then there is a remote possibility that Cleveland can summon that old magic and pull off another upset.
The Browns have the rest coming off the bye, confidence from upsetting the defending Super Bowl champions on the road and a very vulnerable defense against the pass that can be attacked.
Look for RB Peyton Hillis and TE Benjamin Watson to score touchdowns and for QB Colt McCoy to throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns in a 24-23 upset over the 6-1 New England Patriots.
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