College Football Week 10 Picks: Power Ranking Best Big-Game Locks
College Football Week 10 Picks: The title pretty much says it all.
It's Week 10 of the college football season, and as always, there are some pivotal matchups on this Saturday's slate of games.
With some teams potentially having their seasons go up in smoke and others looking to make a last run at the BCS, picking the winners of this weekend's biggest games can be difficult.
But I'm here to offer my picks for some huge showdowns, complete with my "confidence meter" and analysis of both sides in each game.
Let's get to it.
10. Baylor at Oklahoma State
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Why It's So Important
Baylor's in a place it hasn't been in God knows how long: fighting for a Big 12 Championship. Oklahoma State needs to win this game and head to their season-ending showdown against Oklahoma in the best position possible.
Why Baylor Will Win
Oklahoma State's defense ranks 81st in the nation in points allowed, and Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin's Bears rank 10th in the nation in passing yards and 23rd in scoring.
Why Oklahoma State Will Win
The Cowboys have the No. 3 passing and scoring offense, so they'll put up points no matter who they're playing.
Who's the Pick?
Baylor.
Confidence Meter
2/10. Baylor lost by 35 to TCU and gave up 45 points in a loss to Texas Tech, so you never know which Baylor team will show up.
9. Arkansas at South Carolina
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Why It's So Important
Both teams are likely out of the BCS unless they pull off a few upsets the rest of the season, but this game is huge for bowl seeding at the very least.
Why Arkansas Will Win
Ryan Mallett. This guy can throw the ball all over the field—Arkansas ranks second in the nation in passing. Even without the injured Greg Childs, this guy is still one of the nation's best gunslingers.
Why South Carolina Will Win
They're playing at home and their defense has been stingy all season, giving up just 19.5 points per game.
Who's the Pick?
South Carolina.
Confidence Meter
3/10. I like that Arkansas will be without Childs, but you just never know with Mallett behind center.
8. Oklahoma at Texas A&M
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Why It's So Important
Oklahoma rebounded from the Missouri loss last week, but that came against lowly Colorado, and Texas A&M is a much better team. The Aggies are looking for their third straight win after three straight losses to the best teams they've faced this season.
Why Oklahoma Will Win
Oklahoma is one of the nation's most balanced teams, ranking 17th in scoring offense and 28th in scoring defense. And the Aggies are working in a new quarterback.
Why Texas A&M Will Win
The Aggies are pretty balanced themselves on both sides of the ball and are battle-tested, having already played games against Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma State this year.
Who's the Pick?
Oklahoma.
Confidence Meter
3/10. Oklahoma's clearly the better team, but Texas A&M is tough at home.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
7. TCU at Utah
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Why It's So Important
It's pretty obvious why this is a big game. The winner here will in all likelihood be the No. 3 team in the BCS standings and have a shot at playing for the national championship.
Why TCU Will Win
TCU's offense puts up nearly 41 points a game, but it's defense that wins championships. And the Horned Frogs give up an astonishingly low 8.7 points per game, which is tops in the nation.
Why Utah Will Win
Utah and TCU almost mirror each other, as Utah's No. 6 scoring defense and No. 3 scoring offense make the Utes the only squad that stacks up to the Horned Frogs in both categories.
Who's the Pick?
TCU.
Confidence Meter
4/10. It's a shaky pick at best considering TCU is on the road, but this will be each team's toughest challenge by a country mile.
6. Missouri at Texas Tech
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Why It's So Important
Missouri's BCS chances are looking slim following the loss to Nebraska, so they need every win they can get while Texas Tech is one loss away from falling under .500.
Why Missouri Will Win
Missouri's defense is ranked ninth in the nation in scoring at 15.4 points per game, and the Tigers have had two incredibly tough games the last two weeks against Oklahoma and Nebraska that should prepare them for any opponent.
Why Texas Tech Will Win
We all know how Texas Tech wins: by throwing the ball. If the Red Raiders can air it out, it could be a long day for the Tigers.
Who's the Pick?
Missouri.
Confidence Meter
4/10. I know Missouri lost last week to Nebraska because they couldn't stop the run, but that defense still makes me a little nervous.
5. Arizona at Stanford
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Why It's So Important
I'm not sure that any Pac-10 team other than Oregon will crack the BCS this year, but if any team is going to do it, it's either Arizona or Stanford.
Why Arizona Will Win
Arizona's defense ranks seventh in the nation in scoring at 14.4 points per game and has held its opponents to less than 10 points four times this season.
Why Stanford Will Win
Stanford's fifth-ranked scoring offense gets a lot of publicity because of Andrew Luck, but it's the Cardinal's 12th-ranked rushing attack that should have the Wildcats worried.
Who's the Pick?
Stanford.
Confidence Meter
5/10. Stanford is coming off a 41-0 win over Washington, but the Cardinal played USC and Washington State too close for comfort the two prior weeks.
4. Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
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Why It's So Important
No team seems to want to take hold of the ACC's BCS berth. While Georgia Tech is fighting for bowl positioning more than anything else, Virginia Tech could still make a run at the BCS.
Why Georgia Tech Will Win
The Yellow Jackets lead the nation in rushing at 317.4 yards per game. I don't care what defense they're playing against, it's hard to get off the field when a team runs the ball that much.
Why Virginia Tech Will Win
The Hokies have rebounded magnificently from that horrible start, scoring at least 40 points in five of their last six games.
Who's the Pick?
Virginia Tech.
Confidence Meter
6/10. The Hokies are on a roll and thinking BCS, so I don't see an average Georgia Tech team slowing them down.
3. Alabama at LSU
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Why It's So Important
National title hopes for both teams are still very much alive, especially for Alabama, which is the highest ranked one-loss team at No. 6.
Why Alabama Will Win
Alabama has the nation's No. 2 scoring defense, a team filled with guys who've won a national title and an incredible backfield that features Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram.
Why LSU Will Win
Playing at home in one of the loudest stadiums in all of college football is always a plus, and the Tigers' defense only allows 15.6 points per game.
Who's the Pick?
Alabama.
Confidence Meter
7.5/10. LSU's quarterback situation is a mess, and the Tigers can't win if they continue to score 25.5 points per game.
2. Wisconsin at Purdue
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Why It's So Important
If Wisconsin wins this game and runs the table (which is very possible), you never know how big of a game the Badgers could wind up playing in. As for Purdue, they're looking to stay above .500 and keep their bowl hopes alive.
Why Wisconsin Will Win
The Badgers control the clock by rushing for more than 221 yards per game, and they also drop 35.6 points per game. They'll be playing a Purdue team that only scores 18 points per game.
Why Purdue Will Win
I'm not sure to be honest. I guess they have a shot since they're playing at home, and they have a quality win over Northwestern.
Who's the Pick?
Wisconsin.
Confidence Meter
9/10. The Boilermakers have lost their last two games by a combined score of 93-10.
1. Hawaii at Boise State:
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Why It's So Important
Hawaii's sealed a bowl berth, but they're looking to improve their resume and get to as big of a bowl as possible. As for Boise State, you know the deal—if they lose a game, their national title hopes go down the drain.
Why Hawaii Will Win
The Warriors lead the nation with nearly 400 passing yards per game and also rank 11th in scoring with 39.2 points per game, so they're one of very few teams that can hang with the Broncos in the WAC.
Why Boise State Will Win
Like TCU and Utah, the Broncos are good on both sides of the ball, ranking second in the nation in scoring offense and third in scoring defense. Plus, it doesn't hurt to have Kellen Moore as your quarterback.
Who's the Pick?
Boise State.
Confidence Meter
9.5/10. The Broncos do not lose on the Smurf Turf. Plain and simple.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
