NFL Week 9 Picks: 10 Underdogs Most Likely to Win Outright
NFL Week 9 picks are here, and we're putting a focus on the underdogs in this edition.
This has been one of the hardest years in terms of picking games, and underdogs have done people in throughout this year. I've gone through each game and told you what the chances of the underdogs winning are and broken down all of the matchups.
If you agree or disagree, let it be known in the comments. Which game would you put your money down on without a second of hesitation?
Dallas vs. Green Bay
1 of 13
Line
Green Bay -8
Upset Probability
1 of 10 (Lowest)
The Dallas Cowboys have given up on this season.
With Jon Kitna under center and Clay Matthews coming off the edge against a very weak offensive line, it's going to be a nightmare for Kitna under center on Sunday.
Kitna's going to turn the ball over, and the Packers are going to throw up and down the field on the Dallas secondary that got torched by the Jaguars last week. If the Cowboys quit, what's the point of even showing up?
New Orleans vs. Carolina
2 of 13
Line
New Orleans -6.5
Upset Probability
2 of 10 (Very Low)
The New Orleans Saints finally looked like a defending Super Bowl champion by beating Pittsburgh, who most people thought were the best team in football.
However, the Saints have also looked terrible at times, losing to Arizona and Cleveland.
If those Saints show up, who knows what will happen. But New Orleans will probably win this one easily.
But there is always the chance of one of those letdown games.
New England vs. Cleveland
3 of 13
Line
New England -4.5
Upset Probability
2 of 10 (Very Low)
The Patriots are the only one-loss team in football.
New England is just rolling, even without Randy Moss in the offense. New England looks a lot like those teams that won three Super Bowls years ago, and that young defense is starting to gel.
The Patriots are going to make a deep run in the playoffs this year. It just feels right.
While New England got blasted in the playoffs this year, this team just feels a bit different.
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NY Jets vs. Detroit
4 of 13
Line
New York -4
Upset Probability
3 of 10 (Low)
The Jets had an ugly loss to Green Bay last week, but will play against a scrappy Lions team that is always seeming to give their opponents some trouble.
I think Mark Sanchez will bounce back, and it will open up LaDainian Tomlinson in the running game.
The Lions are a scrappy team, but maybe next year is their year. For now, it's going to be close but no cigar for Detroit.
It was good to see Matthew Stafford come back with a strong performance after injuring his shoulder in Week 1 against Chicago.
Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
5 of 13
Line
Pittsburgh -4.5
Upset Probability
4 of 10 (Low)
The Steelers lost their first game with Ben Roethlisberger, and now they play division-rival Cincinnati on Monday Night Football.
The Bengals have struggled this year, and Carson Palmer is going to turn the ball over. It's inevitable.
Palmer has been awful this year, and the one touchdown to Terrell Owens should have been a pick. But it somehow got juggled right into Owens' hands, and he walked right into the end zone.
Garbage time stats have made him a valuable fantasy player, but this isn't fantasy.
It's going to be ugly.
NY Giants vs. Seattle
6 of 13
Line
NY Giants -6.5
Upset Possibility
5 of 10 (Could Go Either Way)
While this game doesn't seem like something that should be close, Seattle is a team that is very scrappy at home, and it's truly one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.
The Seahawks, somehow, are competitive this year when they really should be awful after a total house cleaning.
The Giants are rolling and coming off of a bye. While it seems like this should be a lock of a win for a good New York team, I'm not so sure we don't get the scrappy Seahawks who can sneak away a victory.
New York will make mistakes, and it's up to Seattle to make the most of them.
Miami vs. Baltimore
7 of 13
Line
Baltimore -5.5
Upset Possibility
6 of 10 (Decent Chance)
While Baltimore is one of the best teams in the AFC, don't sleep on Miami.
When you look at the teams the Dolphins lost to, they are all good teams. There are no bad losses on that record, and you need to remember that this game is in Baltimore.
Why is this important, you may be asking yourself. Well, the Dolphins are undefeated on the road and winless at home.
Miami will show up to play, and the Ravens needed overtime to beat Buffalo. I'm just saying that there's plenty of room for an upset here.
Minnesota vs. Arizona
8 of 13
Line
Minnesota -9
Upset Possibility
6 of 10 (Decent Chance)
Now normally, you'd think the Cardinals have no chance but a win against New Orleans this year.
A scrappy game against Tampa Bay has me thinking that a dinged-up Vikings team is ripe for another loss this week.
Minnesota needs this game, and the desperation might kick in. But with so much controversy and word that Brad Childress has lost the team, I have no faith in this Vikings team to rebound and get a win to try and keep the season alive.
Chicago vs. Buffalo
9 of 13
Line
Chicago -3
Upset Probability
7 of 10 (Good Chance)
The Bears are just awful. There's no way around it.
Chicago cannot block to protect Jay Cutler, and Matt Forte barely gets to see the ball. Mike Martz almost has no idea what he's doing, and it's gotten worse week after week.
Buffalo, on the other hand, has been in a couple of games; it's just bad luck that has doomed the Bills. I'm stunned at how hard they are competing, and it's good to see a Bills team that isn't rolling over and mailing in the season.
The Bills will break through this week, and why not now?
Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay
10 of 13
Line
Atlanta -8.5
Upset Probability
7 of 10 (Good Chance)
Josh Freeman: All he does is win football games.
I don't know how he does it, but he loves the fourth quarter like no one else. He just finds a way to get the job done, and Tampa Bay keeps rolling.
Sure, the Bucs haven't beaten anyone great, but I think Tampa can find a way.
Atlanta is coming off of a bye and playing at home where the Falcons are very good. But I just have a feeling.
This is a statement game for the Bucs, and I think they step up and give Matt Ryan and company some trouble.
San Diego vs. Houston
11 of 13
Line
San Diego -3
Upset Probability
8 of 10 (Good Chance)
San Diego gets one big win, and all of a sudden people are on the Chargers bandwagon.
I'm not sure, but I'm not trusting the Chargers just yet. San Diego finds ways to cost itself games, and the Chargers have Norv Turner as a coach.
Not a fan.
The Texans aren't a great team, despite the hype. But they have the tools to make things happen on offense; it's just a matter of stopping Philip Rivers.
If Houston can make just enough plays on defense, it's going to be a good day.
Kansas City vs. Oakland
12 of 13
Line
Oakland -2.5
Upset Possibility
9 of 10 (Excellent Chance)
Two big wins, and Oakland is evidently back.
I'm not buying it.
While Kansas City isn't exactly rolling at the moment, and I think the Chiefs are flawed team, I'm going with Kansas City in this one. We forget how bad Oakland looked at times and who the Raiders were beating.
Denver and Seattle don't impress me much, and we'll see how they do in a big divisional game. If the Raiders fall on their faces, don't say I didn't tell you so.
Indianapolis vs. Philadelphia
13 of 13
Line
Philadelphia -3
Upset Probability
10 of 10 (It's Gonna Happen)
Is this line serious?
Just put your money on the Colts now. Please.
It's easy money.
Indianapolis is rolling, even though its banged up. Just because Michael Vick is coming back, it doesn't mean that the Eagles are going to win this game.
Sure, it's in Philly and the Colts are coming off of a short week, but I'm not buying a down week. If Kerry Collins can throw on the Eagles, Peyton Manning can pick them apart as well.
This is as close to a stone-cold lock as it gets.
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