NFL Picks Week 9: Steelers Lose Again and Bills Get Win No. 1
Week 8 didn't have the excitement that many of the weeks prior have had in the 2010 NFL season.
But Week 9 is shaping up to be a good one.
The Buffalo Bills lost in overtime for the second straight week. Will this be the week that they will win their first game?
There is a rivalry being renewed out West, as the Chiefs travel to the Black Hole to take on the Raiders. The NFC South has a big game between two of their leaders, Tampa Bay and Atlanta.
Who will win these games and the other 10 NFL matchups for Week 9?
Here are my picks for what promises to be one of the most entertaining weeks of the season so far.
Season—73-44
Last Week—11-2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
1 of 13
This game is a great opportunity for Bucs coach Raheem Morris to prove his comments that Tampa Bay is the best team in the NFC.
There is little doubt that the conference is up for grabs right now, and the Bucs aren't getting a lot of respect as of yet. A win at the Georgia Dome could do a lot to earn the Bucs some respect and give them a better case to the top spot in the NFC.
Tampa Bay is coming off a win in Arizona, in a game that they led 31-14 at one point in the third quarter, only to let the Cardinals rally and take 35-31 lead.
Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman was up to the task once again. He led the Bucs on a game-winning, 74-yard touchdown drive, marking the sixth time the second-year QB has led his team to a fourth quarter comeback.
Tampa Bay would be wise to not fall behind this week, though, as they are playing a much more talented team than the Cardinals. The Atlanta Falcons appear to be one of the top teams in the NFC, as they enter Week 9 with a 5-2 record.
Neither team has played great defense this season, but the Bucs have been a very opportunistic unit, intercepting 14 passes this year. Atlanta has done a good job in the turnover department as well, intercepting 11 passes.
Surprisingly, both young quarterbacks in this game have done a good job holding onto the football this season. They have combined for just eight interceptions.
Tampa Bay seems to have found a rushing game in the formerly-troubled rookie running back LeGarrette Blount, who has 192 yards rushing and two touchdowns in the Bucs' last two games.
Atlanta appears to have the edge on the offensive side of the ball, particularly at wide receiver.
Roddy White has caught 54 passes for 754 yards and five touchdowns. Tight end Tony Gonzalez continues to age, but he has yet to completely slow down and he should still be viewed as a big-time threat due to his outstanding hands and route-running ability.
He has just 292 yards this season, but he is the Falcons second-leading receiver with 29 catches. He is still a threat in the red zone with three touchdown catches.
Gonzalez is also valuable because he frees other receivers up with so much attention focused on him in the passing game from opposing defenses.
Since neither team seems to have a defensive advantage and both teams protect the ball, the better choice in this one is the home team, which also possesses the more talented offense.
Atlanta 31, Tampa Bay 17
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills
2 of 13
Let's be honest: the Bears are who we thought they were.
They were fortunate to beat the Lions at home in Week 1. Then they went on the road to Big D and beat a team that was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender in the Cowboys.
They squeaked out a win against a Packers team that is good, not great.
That's when the wheels came off the Jay Cutler bus. He was sacked a whopping 10 times in the first half against the Giants in quite possibly the ugliest display of football this entire season, as the Bears fell 17-3.
Just when you thought it couldn't get an uglier, it did. Todd Collins stepped in for an injured Cutler and put up a miraculous quarterback rating of 6.2 to BEAT the Panthers.
The Bears then found a way to lose at home to what can only be described as the worst road team in NFL history—the Seattle Seahawks.
Finally, we come to the masterpiece that was the DeAngelo Hall show. Cutler was the Redskins' most valuable player, throwing four interceptions to Hall and handing Donovan McNabb a win on a silver platter.
Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against the Bears and they aren't even a team I root against. I don't dislike Cutler and I don't dislike offensive coordinator Mike Martz, and I really don't even dislike the two of them working together.
But this is a bad football team.
Cutler could use some blocking and some receivers. It would help if he wouldn't make bad decisions and bad throws too, but he doesn't exactly have Andre Johnson catching his passes or Ryan Clady blocking for him.
The Bills, on the other hand, are a team whose record only tells half the story.
They are not a good football team, either, but they have been competitive and they play harder than many teams in the league. They just don't have the talent to pull through and win football games right now.
But they do have some players who have stepped up and played well. Wide receiver Steve Johnson has 30 catches for 409 yards and six touchdowns, while quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well after stepping in for Trent Edwards.
The Harvard grad has a quarterback rating of 91.1, and he has thrown for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns in just five games this season.
Buffalo doesn't stop the run well. But the Bears would rather pass, and they won't be able to exploit that advantage.
After losing their last two games in hard-fought overtime contests to playoff contenders, the Bills finally break through in Week 9.
Buffalo 20, Chicago 13
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
3 of 13
The Browns are better than a lot of people give them credit for.
Their 2-5 record is a little misleading considering the fact that they have played the NFL's hardest schedule so far this season.
The Patriots don't appear to be as good as in year's past, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They are ranked 28th in the league while allowing 384 yards per game.
New England's pass defense has been the problem much more than their 11th-ranked run defense. Unfortunately for the Browns, they don't have the key players to exploit that.
Browns running back Peyton Hillis is having a solid year. He is averaging 4.4 yards per carry, and he has managed to find the end zone five times this season.
The Browns will need a big game out of Hillis if they want to upset the Pats.
The Browns' pass defense has struggled this season. Even though they intercepted Saints quarterback Drew Brees four times, they also yielded 356 passing yards.
Sheldon Brown managed the only pick for the Browns' secondary in that game, while the other three came from the linebacker corps.
This game is a potential upset, and the Patriots shouldn't take the Browns lightly. I don't believe Bill Belichick will let them, so ultimately New England will get it done on the road.
Expect Hillis and the Browns to play the Pats tough, but fall just short.
New England 24, Cleveland 20
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New York Jets at Detroit Lions
4 of 13
Much like the Browns, the Lions are a team with a bad record that are capable of playing competitive football and winning football games.
They showed that last week in their 37-25 win over the Redskins.
The Jets, on the other hand, are coming off a shutout loss at home to the Packers, and they will now have to contain the Lions big play threat in wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Expect Jets corner Antonio Cromartie to match up with Megatron because of his 6'2" frame and his ability to cover larger receivers like the 6'5" Johnson.
Cromartie held his own against Randy Moss earlier this season, so don't expect a repeat three-touchdown performance this weekend for Johnson.
The Jets' pass defense, as a whole, hasn't been great this season. They are in the middle of the pack statistically, so the key will be shutting down Johnson since he is the main offensive threat for the Lions.
On offense, the Jets should be able to run the football against the 27th-ranked run defense that is allowing 130.4 yards per game. Running back LaDainian Tomlinson has had two straight less-than-stellar games against below-average run defenses, so he will need to get back on track in this one if the Jets are to win.
The wild card in this one will be the play of the Jets starting quarterback Mark Sanchez. He has been absolutely terrible the last three games after starting out the season well.
Sanchez has completed just 48.2 percent of his passes in the last three contests while throwing for just one touchdown and three interceptions.
For some reason, the Jets have decided to let Sanchez throw more lately than he did at the start of the season, and that plan has backfired. If they want to win this one, they'd better run the football.
The Jets are at their best when they play physical football. I believe they will do enough on the ground on offense, and they will stop Calvin Johnson on defense to get the win.
New York 27, Detroit 17
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
5 of 13
This matchup is quite simple.
If the Saints don't turn the ball over, they will have no problem getting the victory. Drew Brees has already thrown 11 interceptions this year, equaling his total from all of last season.
In the Saints' three losses this season, he has thrown nine of them.
The injuries to Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas have not helped matters. But when Brees has protected the football, the Saints have won.
The Panthers have really struggled this season, starting 1-6. But they did play the Saints tough in Week 4 at the Superdome, and they have the ability to do so again at home this week.
The Carolina defense has not been the problem this season. It has been the anemic offense that is averaging a league-worst 12.1 points per game.
Carolina's only chance in this game will be to force turnovers in this one, something they did last time by forcing two Saints fumbles. The Panthers have the fifth-most interceptions in the NFC with 10, but they will probably need to turn any turnovers they do get into points if they are going to beat the Saints.
Arizona and Cleveland combined for five defensive touchdowns in their upset wins over the Saints. The Panthers could use a couple too, especially with their offense, which has turned the ball over a league-leading 23 times.
Carolina's defense won't be able to overcome their offensive woes in this one, and they will drop to 1-7 on the season.
New Orleans 27, Carolina 13
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
6 of 13
This is one of the better games of the weekend, featuring two teams with playoff aspirations.
Miami will happily travel to Baltimore with their 4-0 record on the road this season. The Ravens are 3-0 at home, and they are coming off their bye week following a thrilling overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills.
The Ravens' defense showed some vulnerability in that game, yielding 34 points and over 500 yards of total offense to the win less Bills. Good teams find ways to win, though, and the Ravens escaped with the victory.
Miami beat a struggling Bengals team last week after losing a heartbreaker to the Steelers in a game that many Dolphins fans feel the team should have won.
Miami is currently third in the tough AFC East, and a win in Baltimore would be huge for this team and their fanbase. which feels as though their team isn't getting enough respect.
The Ravens' secondary, and particularly corner Fabian Washington, had a rough day against the Bills, allowing 386 yards through the air. They weren't facing anyone the caliber of Dolphins receiver Brandon Marshall.
Marshall has 47 catches for 588 yards this season, but just one touchdown. Quarterback Chad Henne needs to try to get his big target more involved in the red zone.
If he can, the Dolphins will have an excellent shot at winning this game.
Both defenses are in the top 10 in total yards, so this game should be tight throughout. Ray Lewis and the Raven defense will want to make a statement at home, plus Baltimore has run the ball with more consistency than the Dolphins this season.
So look for the home team to take this one.
Baltimore 20, Miami 17
San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans
7 of 13
The Chargers' woeful 2-5 start to the season got a little better last weekend as they beat the Titans at home.
But San Diego is in the midst of the toughest stretch of their schedule this season, as they travel to the Houston Texans.
The Texans have been very inconsistent this season after looking great in their home opener against the Colts. Houston started the year 2-0, but they have been outplayed in all but one game since—a win over the Raiders—and they are now 4-3 on the season.
San Diego has been an enigma all season, ranking first in both total offense and total defense. But they have not been able to put many wins together.
Their win over the Titans was their first quality win of the season, so they will be looking to build off of that this week in the hopes of moving to 4-5.
Houston's offense has been one of the league's best this season, but their defense has been the league's worst. This game should be a high-scoring affair.
The Chargers will need to block Texans defensive end Mario Williams if they want to win this game because Philip Rivers and the San Diego offense have had a tough time hanging onto the football this season. The Chargers have lost a league-leading 12 fumbles this season, and San Diego's offensive line hasn't exactly done a great job blocking.
Left tackle Marcus McNeill ended his holdout three games ago. But his presence didn't make an impact at first, as the Chargers surrendered seven sacks to the Rams.
The offensive line has been better the last two weeks, though, and McNeill looks to be getting back to game shape as the Chargers have allowed just three sacks total in the last two games.
San Diego's defense has been solid this season, but their special teams have been another story. They made another mistake last week when a punt gone wrong resulted in a safety for the Titans.
Another bad sign was the fact that Vince Young threw for 253 yards against the Chargers' secondary on only 10 completions.
Andre Johnson is significantly better than anyone the Titans have at receiver. Sorry, Kenny Britt (and yes, you too Randy Moss), but it's true.
If the Chargers can cover Johnson and shut down the Texans' rushing attack led by the league's third-leading rusher, Arian Foster, they should be able to win this game. Should be able to, but the reality is their special teams and turnovers could still screw it up.
I don't think they will stop the Texans in the first place, so it may not matter.
Houston 34, San Diego 27
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
8 of 13
Both of these teams are struggling.
No one should be surprised that the Cardinals have had troubles this season. But the Vikings are another story.
Everyone knows that Brett Favre has been banged up this season and that he has not played well. They also know that the Randy Moss experiment can be labeled as nothing short of a failure.
But the Vikings' defense has also regressed this season.
The Vikings have had an outstanding run defense the past four seasons, ranking in the top two each year. But this season has been a different story.
The Vikings are giving up an average of 102.4 yards per game on the ground, 13th in the league. Defensive end Jared Allen has been nowhere near the disruptive force that we are accustomed to, registering just 22 tackles and one sack this season.
The Viking defense has forced just nine turnovers, fewest in the NFC.
The Cardinals have also had problems at the quarterback position and on defense, where they are allowing 28.3 points per game.
Undrafted rookie Max Hall and veteran Derek Anderson have been taking their turns as the team's signal caller this season, and neither has done a very good job. They combined to throw four interceptions in last week's loss to the Bucs, and they have yet to get much production from either player this year.
Arizona benefited from facing Sam Bradford in his first NFL start. Then they were given the gift of three Sebastian Janikowski missed field goals in a one-point win.
Finally, they scored three defensive touchdowns to knock off the Saints at home. This all equates to a 3-4 football team, but one that is largely devoid of talent.
Favre will have to throw at least a few picks in this one to give the Cards a shot. It's quite possible given the way he played this season.
But overall, the Vikings are a much more talented team, and they should prevail.
Minnesota Vikings 24, Arizona Cardinals 10
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
9 of 13
The Seahawks have one of the best home-field advantages in football, and the Giants have fared terribly in recent trips to Seattle.
None of that will matter this time, though, because New York is playing good football and the Seahawks are not. Plus the Hawks have plenty of injuries and very little depth.
Seattle looked about as bad as a team can look last week in their loss to the Raiders. While Oakland fans rejoiced, the Seahawks tried to regroup.
Seattle lost defensive end Red Bryant for the season in that game, as he went down with a knee injury and his loss is a significant one for a defense that has been very good against the run this season.
The Seahawks also lost starting left guard Ben Hamilton for the season to a concussion. You can add him to the casualty list that already included guard Max Unger and left tackle Russell Okung.
The Seahawks' secondary was also banged up, and the team cut corner Nate Ness this week from a unit that was already thin enough.
The Giants, on the other hand, are winners of four straight.
Ahmad Bradshaw is fourth in the league in rushing with 708 yards this season. Eli Manning has played well when his passes aren't being tipped, and he has thrown for 1,785 yards and 14 touchdowns this season.
Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora has eight sacks this season and an incredible seven forced fumbles. You should expect him to add to that total this week against a patch-work Seahawks line that allowed eight sacks against the Raiders a week ago.
New York is one of only four teams in the top 10 in both total offense and total defense this season. This Qwest Field go-around should have a better outcome for the Giants despite the Seahawks' 12th man.
The Seattle fans will probably have a bigger impact on the Giants than the Seahawks' team actually will. That won't be enough to get the home team a victory, as the Hawks will drop their first home contest of the season.
New York Giants 28, Seattle Seahawks 10
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles
10 of 13
Reports of the demise of Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts were officially premature.
The Colts slopped their way through the first four games of the season with an uncharacteristic 2-2 record. But they have rebounded nicely and now sit 5-2 on the year.
Manning has been stellar once again this season, as he had thrown for an average of 312 yards per game—third best in the league—and 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
Even when the Colts were losing, it wasn't because of Manning. He threw for nearly 800 yards and five touchdowns to one interception, while completing over 70 percent of his passes.
That sounds pretty good to me. Now that the Indy defense seems to have figured it out, the rest of the league better take notice.
Philadelphia has been one of the many NFC teams who appear to be good. But at 4-3, the jury is still out.
Last week the Eagles had the Titans dead to right. Then a LeSean McCoy fumble inside the Tennessee 10-yard line late in the third quarter was the turning point of the game.
The Eagles were ahead by nine at the time and about to get more. Instead, they quit covering Kenny Britt and the Titans rallied for an eventual 37-19 lead.
Kerry Collins threw for 276 yards and three touchdowns in the win, a performance that was uncharacteristic from the Eagles secondary that had done a good job against the pass this season.
Michael Vick will be back at quarterback for the Eagles, and should provide the offense with a spark that only he can deliver. Vick is elusive, but he has also taken 11 sacks this season.
The Colts have one of the top pass rushes in the league, so it should be a good matchup.
This will be a hard-fought game between two solid teams. But regardless of who he has to throw the ball to, you should rarely bet against Manning, and this isn't one of those times.
Indianapolis Colts 31, Philadelphia Eagles 17
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
11 of 13
The rivalry has been renewed, and there is a lot at stake in the AFC West in this one.
The Chiefs can widen their division lead to 2.5 games, while Oakland can cut the lead to just a half-game.
Oakland has been impressive in their past two games, dominating their opponents to the tune of 59-14 and 33-3. But the Chiefs are a much stronger opponent than the Broncos or Seahawks were, and they boast one of the best defenses the Raiders have seen this season.
Kansas City has been great against the run this season. They will need to be again as they take on an Oakland team that is second in the league in rushing at 168.5 yards per game.
The Chiefs are seventh against the run, allowing 96.4 yards per game. This will be their toughest test yet.
Many Raiders fans are calling for a blowout in this one. But the Chiefs will have something that Oakland's past two opponents did not have: a running game.
Kansas City is tops in the league in running the football at 190.4 yards per game, and they feature the most explosive running back in the NFL in Jamaal Charles. Oakland's run defense has not been good this season, where they have allowed 127.4 yards per game this season, 26th in the league.
The turnover battle could be key in this one as well, as the Chiefs have turned the ball over just four times the entire season. If they can limit turnovers against the Raiders, they should be in great shape to get the win.
Oakland has turned the ball over 10 times this year and done a solid job of holding onto the football. Penalties also should not be overlooked in this game, as the Chiefs are one of the NFL's least penalized teams and the Raiders are tied with the Titans as the most penalized team in football.
The Chiefs are 11-for-22 in the red zone this season scoring touchdowns, while the Raiders are 14-for-31. Kansas City has been better in the red zone.
And since the Chiefs should be able to run the football very well against the Raiders, there is no reason to think that will change this weekend.
Kansas City 24, Oakland 13
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
12 of 13
How 'bout them Cowboys?
The Dallas Super Bowl dream is all but dead at this point, as the team has started the 2010 campaign 1-6. They are now without quarterback Tony Romo for possibly the rest of the season.
Jon Kitna stepped in last week as the new starting quarterback and threw for 379 yards, but also four interceptions as the Cowboys lost 35-17 to Jacksonville. Dallas has now lost four straight games, and there appears to be no light at the end of the tunnel, especially with the upcoming stretch of games against the Packers, Giants, Lions, Saints, Colts and Eagles.
It's hard to picture Dallas winning any of those games at this point; even the Detroit game should give them trouble.
The Cowboys have been lacking in the discipline department this season, and even more so in the running game, where they are averaging just 80.9 yards per game, second-worst in the league.
The Packers have had their share of injuries this season. Most notably to starting running back Ryan Grant, who was lost for the season.
But the team has been able to maintain a level of success and currently sit atop the NFC North at 5-3. In what appeared to be a promising division at the start of the season, it seems likely now that the Packers should have little problem capturing the title.
Green Bay is fresh off a shutout victory against the Jets, and you should expect them to carry that momentum over in this one as they take care of the Cowboys.
Green Bay 27, Dallas 13
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
13 of 13
The Cincinnati Bengals have not experienced the success they were hoping for this season after signing veteran wide receiver Terrell Owens and pairing him with Chad Ochocinco to form the league's most dynamic duo.
This is a must-win game for the Bengals if they are to have any shot at turning their season around. It will be by no means an easy one as the Steelers come to town.
Pittsburgh is coming off just their second loss of the season, a 20-10 defeat at the hands of the New Orleans Saints. The Steelers' defense has been one of the best in the league this season, as they are currently fifth in the league in total yards allowed.
Their pass defense is 25th in the league, however, and the Bengals have the weapons to make this game an entertaining one.
Much of the load will fall upon the shoulders of Carson Palmer, who is having an up-and-down season so far, passing for 1,855 yards and 12 touchdowns to seven interceptions.
The Bengals shouldn't be able to run the ball much, if at all, against the Steelers top-ranked rushing defense, so Palmer and the T.O.C.H.O show will have to be at the top of their games.
The Bengals, defense has been inconsistent just like their offense this season, and they rank 19th in the league in total defense. Pittsburgh should be able to run the ball against a Bengal defense that is allowing 120.7 yards per game on the ground.
Pittsburgh leads the the league in takeaways with 19, so Palmer needs to be careful with the football. But the Bengals have also done a good job forcing turnovers this season with 16.
The Steelers have turned the ball over five times (some would say six) since the return of Big Ben three games ago.
The Bengals desperately need this game, which doesn't mean they will get it. But I believe T.O.C.H.O will come ready to play in the Monday night spotlight and pull off the upset at home.
Cincinnati 24, Pittsburgh 20
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