Houston Rockets: Plotting the Ideal Course of Yao Ming's 24 Minutes
The 24-minute man.
Half man, half machine, half a game.
Jack Bauer.
The stream of nicknames Yao Ming has been getting since the Rockets announced that he would be limited to 24 minutes per game has been endless. The jokes have gotten to the point that many are not even taking Yao seriously anymore—that is, they consider his almost laughable injury history to have rendered him more of a punchline than a player.
However, while the minute limit is undoubtedly an obstacle for success, if the Rockets use Yao correctly, he can have an incredible effect on the game. Simply put, there are no other highly-skilled, 7'6" big men in the entire NBA.
For those who are unaware, here are the ground rules.
Yao will play no more than 24 minutes in each game. If he plays less than the prescribed 24 minutes, he cannot "carry over" minutes to the next game (i.e. if he plays 16 minutes one night, he can't play 32 the next).
Yao cannot play significantly more than six minutes in a row.
Yao will be limited to playing one game out of a back-to-back.
Everybody seems to be in agreement on these rules so far. However, should Adelman stretch these rules in crucial spots? If there are ten seconds left and Yao has played his 24 minutes, should Adelman put Yao in?
To see exactly how Yao should be used, please read on.
1st Quarter: Start Yao On The Bench?
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In the NBA, coaches typically put their best players in the starting lineup so as to get off to good starts and to get their best players going early. However, in recent years the clever use of players like Manu Ginobili and Jamal Crawford off the bench has shown that certain players can be even more effective off the bench than in starting roles.
For the Rockets, bringing Yao off the bench for the final six minutes of the first quarter would be the best way to exploit his effectiveness. Detractors of this idea point to the fact that sitting on the bench after warming up and stretching could not possibly be ideal for such an injury-prone big man.
However, because he rides on a stationary bike instead of sitting down while not playing, Yao's most important body part, his foot, stays stretched out and relaxed.
The first reason why Yao would be so much more effective after starting on the bench and coming in midway through the first quarter is that the Rockets would be more likely to be in the bonus six minutes into the quarter.
Daryl Morey has often said that Yao is one of the league's most effective players when his team is in the bonus, because of his ability to draw fouls constantly and make his free throws.
While posting up, opposing big men often resort to certain tactics to keep Yao away from his favorite spots—tactics that often draw fouls. To start off a quarter, the Rockets inbound the ball after a foul on the floor. But in the later parts of the quarter—when they are in the bonus—the Rockets get a near-automatic two points from Yao.
The second reason why playing him later in the quarter could be a strong move for the Rockets is that the first six minutes of games are often, for all intents and purposes, useless. The teams are looking to get into a rhythm and, therefore, the teams often don't work in a good flow at all to start games. By playing Yao the last six minutes of the quarter, the Rockets could maximize the amount of time that he is on the court during the most important moments.
2nd Quarter: Yao Ming, Disruptor
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The second quarter has been the Rockets best quarter thus far this year, holding a plus-eight differential in the stretch.
However, it has also been one of Yao's worst quarters, as he only has one less turnover than field-goals made in the period. He has appeared stiff and out of sync in the second quarter, and when the Rockets have turned to Brad Miller, they have often played better.
This is not to say that the Rockets should not play Yao in the second quarters of games. But rather to recommend that they play him a bit less. Two games is not nearly enough time to judge a player's performance in one quarter. But it appears that after the adrenaline of the first quarter wears off, Yao plays the second quarter tired and weak.
Therefore, playing Yao for just 2-to-3 minutes when a matchup is favorable would be the Rockets' best choice for Yao in the second quarter. Whether it is an opposing big man on the bench, or hot-shooting offensive players, for the Rockets, playing Yao when conditions are best in the second quarter would allow Yao to establish a rhythm in a period where he has struggled.
If the other team's best defender is out of the game, he can assert himself down low and score with ease. And if the Rockets' many sweet-shooting wing players catch fire, he can take advantage of a defense's probable reluctance to double-team off of a shooter and take his time in the post.
The fact is that, by using him so little in the quarter, they can pick exactly the right time to use him. If he played eight minutes in the quarter, it would be difficult to find an ideal matchup the entire time he was on the court. However, in this short span of time, it should be no problem to exploit a potential mismatch.
3rd Quarter: Seeing Double
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In the first two games of the season, Rick Adelman has only played Yao Ming one time per quarter. However, in the third quarter of games, the quarter in which the Rockets have struggled the most, Adelman must use Yao for two stretches.
Because Yao only played 2-to-3 minutes in the second quarter, Adelman could play Yao for 9-to-10 minutes to set him up for the six minutes he would play in the fourth.
However, because the Rockets would rather not play Yao for stretches significantly longer than six minutes, these minutes should not be played consecutively.
Therefore, playing Yao for five minutes to start the quarter, and then have him play the final four minutes, would be the best use of Yao for the Rockets. Playing him early on in the quarter would allow the Rockets to establish a shooting rhythm that they have severely lacked in the second half of games.
As was mentioned earlier, his ability to draw double teams in the post opens up many avenues for the Rockets shooters to get open, and nothing is better for establishing a rhythm for a shooter than open shots. Not only would the benefits pay off when he is on the court, but when he is forced to leave, the shots would hopefully continue to fall.
The Rockets have thrown away games in the third quarter because of bad shooting—they led all three games so far at the half but only led one going into the fourth quarter—and Yao's presence early on in the quarter would hopefully aid in maintaining those leads.
Additionally, playing him the last four minutes of the quarter would help anchor the team in the time when they struggled most. As a whole, the third quarters have been bad, but the last few minutes of the quarter has been an unmitigated disaster.
In the last five minutes of the third quarter, the Nuggets turned a seven-point deficit into a three-point lead, the Warriors maintained an eight-point lead they got in the third quarter, and the Lakers set up their comeback by turning an eleven-point lead into a five-point lead.
Putting Yao in for these crucial minutes would not remedy all the problems, but it would give the Rockets a consistent offensive-option inside rather than the previous policy of shooting jumpers when things go bad.
4th Quarter: Yao Ming, Closer?
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In baseball, the closer typically comes in the game for the ninth inning of close games to shut the door on the opposing team.
If the Rockets want to win more games, they are going to have to be able to close out games just as the Yankees close out games with Mariano Rivera. With fourth quarter ghosts Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin as the featured scorers on the wings, the Rockets will have to look to the post for scoring. Yao Ming has to be that guy for the Rockets.
In fourth quarters, the Rockets need to put Yao in for the final six minutes to hopefully shut the door on their challengers. Once again, his ability to play in the bonus is a huge boon for the Rockets as they look for easy points on the offensive end. Additionally, his ability to create easy shots for others is a must as the Rockets' scorers have a propensity for taking bad shots when things go badly.
Just as a manager often brings in his closer for a longer save in crucial situations, the Rockets must be able to have the guts to put in Yao earlier in the quarter if the situations dictate that course of action.
Early in the fourth quarter against the Nuggets, the Rockets struggled offensively and defensively as the Nuggets stretched their lead to nine points. They took numerous bad shots and appeared lost offensively. If they had put in Yao to slow the Nuggets momentum, perhaps they would not have had to comeback from such a large margin later, like the one they were forced to claw back from against a tough team.
While the doctors told the Rockets that the 24 minutes should be an absolute, the Rockets should not be afraid to bend the rules in an important situation.
While his minutes in the fourth quarter are important, the way the Rockets use him is just as crucial. With him in the game, they must target him every time down court and work off of him. His ability to draw double teams or score against single coverage gives the Rockets incredible opportunities to create offense.
Many times, the difference between not feeding him the ball and going to him every time could be the difference between winning or losing games.
