Detroit Lions-Washington Redskins Prediction: Week 8 Analysis

Quarterback

This Sunday is the day that the Detroit Lions will finally get franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford back.  Shaun Hill performed admirably in Stafford’s absence, but make no mistake that the Lions are Stafford’s team. 

Stafford’s ability to stretch the field will have to be put on display early to set up a struggling rushing attack.

Statistically, Donovan McNabb is having one of his worst seasons.  His QB rating, 76, is the lowest since his rookie season.  But McNabb is more than statistics.  He knows the game, and at 33 years old, he can still be a top-flight quarterback.  He is throwing more picks this year, but I think it is more of a result of him forcing the ball downfield instead of just dinking and dunking like he used to do in Philadelphia. 

Edge: Redskins—Stafford is going to be good, but I simply can’t give him the edge over an accomplished QB like McNabb.  If Stafford had not been hurt all year and was putting up big numbers, it would have been a different story.

Wide Receivers

The return of Nate Burleson has drastically improved the Lions receiving core.  His impact has been felt as Calvin Johnson is starting to get less coverage his way.  Johnson is still double teamed on nearly every play, but that is better than a triple team.

Santana Moss torched the Lions last year to the tune of 178 yards.  Anthony Armstrong has only 19 catches this year, but he is averaging nearly 20 yards a catch. 

Edge: Lions—Both teams have a very good No. 1 receivers and a nice complimentary No. 2, but only the Lions have Calvin Johnson.

Running Backs

Jahvid Best may have benefited more than anybody else from the bye week.  After suffering turf toe injuries to both feet, he needed the rest.   Kevin Smith is starting to get back to the runner he was before injuring his knee.  They make for a good one, two punch.

Ryan Torain has been all the Redskins could have asked for and more at running back.  Since taking over at RB, he has outperformed the injured Clinton Portis. 

Edge: Redskins—The Lions need to start running the ball better, or they are not going to win many games.

Tight Ends

Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler continue to perform at a high level.  They are not yet getting the recognition they deserve nationally, but in Detroit, people are starting to realize just how well they are playing.

Chris Cooley has been a top-flight tight end since he came into the league, and this year is not any different.

Edge: Lions—Cooley and Pettigrew have very similar stats, the presence of Scheffler gives the Lions the edge here.  It is important to note, however, that Cooley is the best player of the bunch.

Offensive Line

The Lions offensive line does not have a very good reputation.  Everyone assumes they are allowing sacks left and right because of the quarterback injuries.  While the O-line has not been very good at run blocking, they have only allowed 11 sacks so far, which is good enough for eighth in the NFL. 

Conversely, the Redskins O-line is 25th in sacks allowed, but they are better at run blocking.

Edge: Even—If only these two lines can be combined, you would have a top flight offensive line. 

Defensive Line

The Lions defensive line has been getting well deserved accolades all year.  I would like to see Cliff Avril do a better job against the run, but that is like saying the Mona Lisa needs a nicer smile; it's nitpicking.

The soap opera revolving around Albert Haynesworth has taken yet another turn.  He finally showed up last week against the Chicago Bears.  One has to wonder though, if his better play is a result of playing against the Bears weak offensive line. 

Edge: Lions—Very few teams have a line as dominant as the Lions revamped line.

Linebackers

The Lions finally get middle linebacker DeAndre Levy back.  He needs to show up in a big way against a big back like Torain. 

The Lions signed former first-round draft pick Bobby Carpenter to replace Zack Follett.  Follett was not playing well when he got injured, so he won’t be missed too much.

Brain Orakpo was one of the better picks in the 2009 draft, making the Pro Bowl in his rookie year.  Jeff Backus, who did a good job against Green Bay’s Clay Matthews, will have to repeat that effort in order to give Matthew Stafford the time he needs.

Edge: Redskins—No explanation needed, this isn’t even close.

Secondary

The secondary that was supposed to be the Achilles heel of the Detroit Lions is playing significantly better than anyone anticipated.  Nothing is more dangerous than a young, hungry football player, and the Lions have four of them starting now.

DeAngelo Hall is already in the Hall of Fame; well, at least his jersey from last week is as a result of his four interceptions.  Hall has a back injury and has been limited in practice this week.  If he can’t go, it will be a big boost for the Lions passing game.

Edge: Redskins—This used to be the easiest category to pick in terms of which team has the edge, but now it required some thought, and that is saying a lot about how much better the Lions secondary has been.

Special Teams

Stefan Logan nearly broke another kickoff return for a touchdown last week; he has been yet another late-season pickup by Martin Mayhew that is paying dividends.  The Lions are now fourth in the league in kickoff return average at 28.5 yards.

Nine of Redskins punter Hunter Smith’s 21 punts have been downed inside the 20. 

Edge: Lions—Graham Gano was five years old when Jason Hanson was a rookie.  Gano has a career long field goal of 49 yards; Hanson has made 45 field goals from 50+.

Prediction

The Redskins are ranked 31st in total defense, but don’t let that fool you.  They are a top five team in limiting opponent third-down conversions.  They are also very good at forcing turnovers.

Conversely the Redskins are one of the worst teams at converting third downs, which is surprising because they have a potent rushing attack.

This game will hinge on the Lions getting to McNabb before he has a chance to carve them up.  The Lions linebackers will have to do a good job against Chris Cooley.

If this game was last week, I would have picked the 'Skins to win, but coming off a bye, coupled with the return of Matthew Stafford, the Lions look primed for their second win of the year.

Pick: Lions 34, Redskins 24

2010 pick record, 5-1