NFL Picks Week 8: 5 Games Vegas Got Wrong

This version of NFL Week 8 picks challenges the so called "experts" that run the Vegas NFL game spreads.

Those experts must have their minds on Halloween or something because they weren't thinking intelligently on some of their predictions.

There are a good number of games they blew this week.

Here are the five matchups Vegas got wrong:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 25: Quarterback Jon Kitna #3 of the Dallas Cowboys drops back to pass against the New York Giants in the second quarter at Cowboys Stadium on October 25, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Numbers

Jacksonville passes for 173.3 yards a game (28th); Dallas surrenders 200 yards a game (7th)

Jacksonville rushes for 127.7 yards a game (10th); Dallas surrenders 117.3 yards a game (21st)

Dallas passes for 375.5 yards a game (5th); Jacksonville surrenders 382.1 yards a game (30th)

Dallas rushes for 86 yards a game (30th); Jacksonville surrenders 129 yards a game (25th)

Storyline

Quarterbacks are being swapped all over the depth chart in this matchup.

Tony Romo is out, Jon Kitna is in and David Garrard is back.

At first glance, the Cowboys look like they're going to have a field day with their high-powered passing attack against an abysmal Jaguars secondary.

Without Tony Romo though, the Cowboys offense obviously won't produce at the same rate.

The huge question mark surrounding this game is, Can Jon Kitna come in and make plays in his first start since Week 5 of 2008?

Spread: Dallas -6.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys

J. Meric/Getty Images

JACKSONVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 18: Quarterback David Garrard #9 of the Jacksonville Jaguars throws a pass against the Tennessee Titans during the game at EverBank Field on October 18, 2010 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

Vegas is giving Jon Kitna too much credit.  The 38-year-old won't be able to produce even close to the numbers that Tony Romo did in that offense.

Miles Austin, Roy Williams, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten may make up the best arsenal of weapons in the league, but Kitna will struggle to get them the football.

The Cowboys will have to lean on their running game much more.  They will have success and they will score, but not nearly at the same rate.

Unlike the Cowboys, the Jaguars do have their starting quarterback under center this week.  In the battle of quarterbacks—forget the people around them—David Garrard beats Kitna by a landslide.

Speaking of people around Garrard, he may be short, but Vegas is foolish for overlooking Maurice Jones-Drew.

The Jaguars' strong rushing attack faces a Cowboys team that would prefer to defend the pass.

Jones-Drew will have a big day as he will be relied on early and often.

Look for the Jaguars to upset the Cowboys Sunday at Cowboys Stadium, and listen for the firing of Wade Phillips within the hours that follow. 

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

Harry How/Getty Images

SAN DIEGO - OCTOBER 24: Antonio Gates #85 of the San Diego Chargers drags Jonathan Wilhite #24 of the New England Patriots after his catch during the fourth quarter at Qualcomm Stadium on October 24, 2010 in San Diego, California. The Patroits won 23-20

Numbers

Tennessee passes for 170.9 yards a game (29th); San Diego surrenders 158.6 yards a game (1st)

Tennessee rushes for 131.3 yards a game (8th); San Diego surrenders 85.7 yards a game (4th)

San Diego passes for 317.4 yards a game (1st); Tennessee surrenders 230.4 yards a game (23rd) 

San Diego rushes for 117.3 yards a game (17th); Tennessee surrenders 97.7 yards a game (10th)

Storyline

Since the beginning of the season, everyone has known the Chargers would be thin at receiver after losing Vincent Jackson.

It hasn't bothered Phillip Rivers: The Chargers lead the league in passing. 

This week, though, receivers Malcolm Floyd and Craig Davis have not practiced, and Legedu Naanee and Richard Goodman have been limited in their participation.  Antonio Gates hasn't practiced either.

The question for the Titans is who will start at quarterback?

Kerry Collins isn't much of a downgrade from Vince Young in the first place, but obviously they are very different types of players, and in fact, forcing the Chargers to game plan for them both gives the Titans an overlooked advantage.

Spread: San Diego -3.5

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

NASHVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 24: Chris Johnson #28 of the Tennessee Titans runs with the ball during the NFL game against the Philadelphia Eagles at LP Field on October 24, 2010 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans won 37-19. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Yardage statistics are more often than not used to label the "best passing game", the "best run defense", etc.

By that standard, the Chargers look like the best team in the league.  That obviously isn't the case, though, as they find themselves at 2-5.

Vegas may drool over the stats or make themselves more confident about their selection by looking at the Chargers past win streak, but here are some numbers Vegas forgot to look over before predicting this one.

The Titans score 28.4 points a game, second in the league compared to the Chargers 25.3,  which is seventh.

The Titans give up just 16.7 points a game, third in the league compared to the Chargers 21.3, which is just good enough for 16th.

Last time I checked, points win games, not yardage.

Back to the yards, though, how in the world can the Chargers have five losses while putting up those kinds of numbers?

They give up big plays galore.

Now take a guess who has the best play-making defense in the NFL.  The Tennessee Titans, how convenient.

The Titans have the most interceptions in the league, are tied for the most sacks and are top 10 in forced fumbles.

Don't forget that on the other side of the ball they have the greatest home run threat in the league.

Titans will pull the "upset" on Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots

Donald Miralle/Getty Images

SAN DIEGO - OCTOBER 24: Safety James Sanders #36 of the New England Patriots reacts to Kicker Kris Brown #3 of the San Diego Chargers missing a field goal to tie at the end of regulation against the New England Patriots during NFL game on October 24, 201

Numbers

Minnesota passes for 182.3 yards a game (24th); New England surrenders 282 yards a game (30th)

Minnesota rushes for 136.2 yards a game (7th); New England surrenders 97.7 yards a game (9th)

New England passes for 213.8 yards a game (17th); Minnesota surrenders 209.2 yards a game (13th)

New England rushes for 111.2 yards a game (14th); Minnesota surrenders 99.2 yards a game (11th) 

Storyline

It's all about Brett Favre.  Who else?

Favre broke his ankle last Sunday night against the Packers, but he still wants to play.

Brad Childress may give in to coach Favre even though a healthy Tavaris Jackson would almost definitely be an upgrade to a broken Brett.

Well, maybe it's not all about Favre, as Randy Moss gets to play the team he just suited up for several weeks ago.

When Moss wants revenge, i.e. tries, everyone in the league knows what is going to follow.

Spread: New England -5.5

Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots

Jim Prisching/Getty Images

GREEN BAY, WI - OCTOBER 24: Brett Favre #4 of the Minnesota Vikings reacts after throwing a final incomplete pass against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on October 24, 2010 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Vikings 28-24. (Photo

The Patriots are heavy favorites—too heavy.

They should be predicted to win this game, but by less than Vegas thinks.

Forget the whole Vikings quarterback situation for a minute.

Since when is being forced to give Adrian Peterson the ball ever a bad thing?  His only weakness in years past was holding on to the football, and he hasn't fumbled once this entire season.

Sure, having Peterson, arguably the best runner in the league, helps a little bit, but don't underestimate the power of a motivated Randy Moss.

Vegas likes those numbers, but you can't put a number on Moss's beastliness when he wants revenge.

In his 13-year career, Super Freak has never lost a game to the Dallas Cowboys, the team that passed on him in the draft when he was projected to be picked there.

Moss' tenure in New England ended on a sour note, when he reportedly got into a fight with the quarterbacks coach and maybe even Tom Brady.

Moss will be fired up this Sunday with revenge in his sights.

Personally, I wouldn't bet against the Patriots in this one because the Vikings quarterback situation is still in shambles, but don't bet on New England beating the spread either.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

SEATTLE - OCTOBER 24: Cornerback Greg Toler #28 of the Arizona Cardinals tries to intercept a pass against wide receiver Mike Williams #17 of the Seattle Seahawks at Qwest Field on October 24, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty I

Numbers

Tampa Bay passes for 210.8 yards a game (18th); Arizona surrenders 227.3 yards a game (21st)

Tampa Bay rushes for 96.7 yards a game (22nd); Arizona surrenders 141.3 yards a game (29th)

Arizona passes for 146.2 yards a game (32nd); Tampa Bay surrenders 196.2 yards a game (6th)

Arizona rushes for 91.7 yards a game (28th); Tampa Bay surrenders 157.7  yards a game (31st)

Storyline

Though the Buccaneers have only one more win than the Cardinals, the feeling of each team couldn't be more different.

The Buccaneers are on the rise with a quickly progressing young quarterback in Josh Freeman leading the pack.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, have no one on their roster that resembles a franchise quarterback and are playing some of the worst football in the league despite their .500 record.

From Derek Anderson to Max Hall back to Derek Anderson, who knows who is going to be taking snaps in the fourth quarter for the Cardinals Sunday?

Line: Arizona -3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals

J. Meric/Getty Images

TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 24: Quarterback Josh Freeman #5 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers points out the defense of the St. Louis Rams during the game at Raymond James Stadium on October 24, 2010 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

The Cardinals are near the bottom of almost every single statistical category.  I don't know what Vegas is thinking favoring them.  Really, because they're home?

This isn't even close to the same situation the San Diego Chargers are in.  With the Chargers, you can dismiss their yardage numbers because their point totals don't match up.

The Cardinals' yardage production is a joke, but so is their ability to get in the end zone and stop their opponent: They have the worst point differential in the league with a minus-62 ratio.

Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers know how to win.  Not only do they have a better record than the Cardinals, they put up better numbers in those victories as well.

Look for the Buccaneers to win a close one, but in convincing fashion.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Win McNamee/Getty Images

LANDOVER, MD - OCTOBER 17: Running back Mike Hart #32 of the Indianapolis Colts is tackled by London Fletcher #59 of the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field on October 17, 2010 in Landover, Maryland. The Colts won the game 27-24. (Photo by Win McNamee/Ge

Numbers

Houston passes for 239 yards a game (11th); Indianapolis surrenders 206.7 yards a game (12th)

Houston rushes for 140.7 yards a game (5th); Indianapolis surrenders 137.3 yards a game (26th)

Indianapolis passes for 314.2 yards a game (2nd); Houston surrenders 306.2 yards a game (32nd)

Indianapolis rushes for 94.8 yards a game (25th); Houston surrenders 104.3 yards a game (13th)

Storyline

Don't miss this game. This contest will be the definition of a shootout and could easily be the highest-scoring game of the year.

Peyton Manning vs. Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson vs. Reggie Wayne.

More offense, less defense.

The strength of each offense matches up perfectly with the opposing defense's weakness.

Can the Texans beat the Colts twice in one season?  The final outcome of the AFC South is in the balance in the Monday night showdown.

Spread: Indianapolis -5.5

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Bob Levey/Getty Images

HOUSTON - OCTOBER 17: Andre Johnson #80 of the Houston Texans has a pass broken up by cornerback Eric Berry #39 of the Kansas City Chiefs at Reliant Stadium on October 17, 2010 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

Vegas has the Colts favored by over five points.  The Colts lost by 10 to the Texans in Week 1, so that spread is a head-scratcher.

These two teams have very similar offensive firepower.

Even without Dallas Clark, Peyton Manning's weapons may just surpass Matt Schaub's in talent, but Manning doesn't have a running back like Arian Foster behind him in the backfield.

Arian Foster will have a field day against the Colts' poor rush defense.  A strong showing from Foster will open up the passing lanes for Andre Johnson to go to work.

This isn't an upset prediction, as Peyton Manning could set career highs.  Well, that would have to be one prolific day, but he will without a doubt dominate on Sunday.

Again, the Colts are another favorite that I wouldn't bet against, but I would chicken out before betting on them because the Texans offense will be too powerful to pull away from.