NFL Picks Week 8: Breaking Down the Games to Bet Against the Spread

Last week's against the spread record: 5-1

Overall against the spread record: 35-17 (67 percent)

To be completely honest with you, I originally only picked five games last week.

But I told myself five wasn't enough and that I needed to add one more.

Turns out the one I added was the Arizona-Seattle game—the only loss of the week for me.

Oh well.

This week, I am picking more games than I ever have simply because Vegas has the home team winning every single game of the week.

With 13 games this Sunday, I assure you, the home team is not going to win every single one.

In fact, I'm going with more visiting teams to win this week.

With a total of nine picks against the spread, here's what Vegas has for this weekend's game lines.

Denver vs. San Francisco (at London): San Francisco -1

Jacksonville at Dallas: Dallas -6.5

Washington at Detroit: Detroit -2.5

Green Bay at NY Jets: NY Jets -6

Carolina at St. Louis: St. Louis -3

Miami at Cincinnati: Cincinnati -2

Buffalo at Kansas City: Kansas City -7.5

Tennessee at San Diego: San Diego -3.5

Tampa Bay at Arizona: Arizona -3

Seattle at Oakland: Oakland -2.5

Minnesota at New England: New England -6.5

Pittsburgh at New Orleans: New Orleans -1

Houston at Indianapolis: Indianapolis -5.5

Denver +1 Vs. San Francisco (At London)

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

DENVER - OCTOBER 17: Quarterback Kyle Orton #8 of the Denver Broncos signals for a first down against the New York Jets at INVESCO Field at Mile High on October 17, 2010 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

San Francisco is about to start Troy Smith with Alex Smith injured.

I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing.

What I do know is the 49ers have proved they can't win on their own home field, or any American field.

So I'm not sure what makes Vegas think they can pull it off in London.

Kyle Orton is one of the top passers in the league, and despite the ugly loss the Broncos just suffered to Oakland, they are still healthier, more talented and simply the better team over these 49ers.

I honestly expect Denver to win this game straight up.

Jacksonville +6.5 at Dallas

Rick Stewart/Getty Images

ORCHARD PARK, NY - OCTOBER 10: Maurice Jones-Drew #32 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs as Dwan Edwards #98 and Marcus Stroud #99 of the Buffalo Bills try to tackle him at Ralph Wilson Stadium on October 10, 2010 in Orchard Park, New York. Jacksonville w

Tony Romo is out, which might be good news for the Cowboys.

Simply put, I am not a believer that Romo can truly lead this Cowboys team to consistent wins.

But I'm not a believer in Jon Kitna either.

Jacksonville has been streaky as of late, and with this game being in Dallas, I don't know if I can see Jacksonville actually winning.

Dallas still has a lot of good talent on its team, so I would expect them to win.

But most people also expected them to be better than 1-5, so be on the lookout for Jacksonville to at least cover this game.

Washington +2.5 at Detroit

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

CHICAGO - SEPTEMBER 12: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Detroit Lions looks for receiver against the Chicago Bears during the NFL season opening game at Soldier Field on September 12, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the Lions 19-14. (Photo by Jon

You know, I actually understand this one.

The Redskins have a bad habit of losing to teams like Detroit despite beating teams like Green Bay.

Need I remind Redskin fans of the St. Louis game?

I don't think so.

In fact, that was the one big upset of the season for the 'Skins, and I have put it in the past.

Matt Stafford is coming back this week, and the Lions have shown they can definitely put up some points, but they are still a season or two away from being where they need to be for me to pick them in this game.

I'm going with Washington to win this game straight up, but if you are a little skeptical you could still go with the Redskins to cover.

Green Bay +6 at NY Jets

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GREEN BAY, WI - OCTOBER 17: Aaron Rogers #12 of the Green Bay Packers passes against the Miami Dolphins at Lambeau Field on October 17, 2010 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Scott Boehm/Getty Images)

This should honestly be one of the best games of the weekend.

Aaron Rodgers vs. the secondary of the Jets.

I'm really looking forward to it.

This was a Super Bowl prediction for many people before the season started, and it could still end up that way.

Still, the spread on this one was just too much to pass up picking, so I've gotta take it.

New York may win this one, but Aaron Rodgers is too competitive to not keep it within six.

Green Bay to cover at least.

Miami +2 at Cincinnati

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JACKSONVILLE, FL - AUGUST 21: Brandon Marshall #19 of the Miami Dolphins prepares to run a route during the preseason game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field on August 21, 2010 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Imag

Yet again, Cincinnati is the favorite to win.

Yet again, they will probably lose.

The tandem of Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco is turning out to be not half bad.

The only problem is, that's the only thing they've got going for them.

Miami is able to play defense, run the ball successfully and take advantage of its stud receiver Brandon Marshall with a pretty good passing game.

Cincy is definitely talented enough to pull off the much-needed win at home.

But Miami is definitely capable of upsetting the Bengals on the road as well.

Tennessee +3.5 at San Diego

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SEATTLE - JANUARY 03: Kenny Britt #18 of the Tennessee Titans looks on before the game against the Seattle Seahawks on January 3, 2010 at Qwest Field in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Did anyone else see what I saw last week with the Tennessee Titans?

They came back and beat the Eagles in rather decisive fashion.

Now, I doubt Kenny Britt will have the same kind of day he had last week, but if Tennessee can beat Dallas, Philadelphia and the New York Giants, I don't see why they can't beat the Chargers in San Diego.

Remember, had Tennessee beaten San Diego last year, they might have made the playoffs after starting the season 0-6.

The Titans franchise has not had a win over the Chargers since 1992, but you can bet they want to win this one more than ever.

With San Diego struggling to find its way this season, expect Tennessee to cover this game or possibly win straight up.

Tampa Bay +3 at Arizona

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CINCINNATI, OH - OCTOBER 10: Quarterback Josh Freeman #5 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rolls out against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on October 10, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

Arizona can't figure out who its quarterback is.

As I said last week, I like Max Hall and was a huge fan of his as a college player at BYU.

Alas, no matter who is playing quarterback for Arizona, the Cardinals have more problems to worry about.

Somehow, the Buccaneers are 4-2 and are tied for the lead in the NFC South.

I'm not biting that they are actually going to win that division, but they are still better than the Cardinals right now.

If Tampa doesn't win this game, I will be surprised, but they should still definitely cover the three-point spread.

Minnesota +6.5 at New England

Jeff Gross/Getty Images

MINNEAPOLIS - SEPTEMBER 26: Running back Adrian Peterson #28 of the Minnesota Vikings celebrates a touchdown during the second half against the Detroit Lions at Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome on September 26, 2010 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Vikings def

I know Minnesota is having trouble right now.

And I agree, they are nowhere near what they were last season.

Namely Brett Favre.

The Patriots are 5-1, and I actually called their only loss back in Week 2 against the Jets.

I'm not exactly calling this as a loss though.

I'm calling this as an "against the spread" pick.

New England may still win this game, but whether Brett Favre or Tarvaris Jackson is playing quarterback, the Vikings are still capable of upsetting the Pats, or at least covering the spread.

Pittsburgh +1 at New Orleans

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MIAMI - OCTOBER 24: Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger #7 celebrates a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium on October 24, 2010 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images)

I understand the Saints are the defending Super Bowl champions.

But this Steelers team has won more Super Bowls in the last five seasons than the Saints have in their entire existence.

Big Ben Roethlisberger is back and looks as good as ever, and the Steelers defense looks outright nasty.

When Pittsburgh has gone 5-1 with their only loss to a respectable Ravens team and the Saints are 4-3 with losses to Arizona and Cleveland, I don't care if it's in New Orleans or not—Pittsburgh should be the favorite in this game.

With only a one-point line, I guess the only real way to bet against the spread is to take the Steelers to win straight up.

I'm perfectly fine with that.