NFL Picks Week 7: Power Ranking the Most Likeliest Upsets

It's Week 7 in the NFL, and that means it's time to place your bets.

As always, there are plenty of spreads that are no-brainers, and plenty that involve a little chin rubbing. And of course, the biggest concern is where the upsets are going to happen

But fear not. Ahead of you is a list that breaks down the likelihood of each and every upset among the various contests in this week's NFL schedule.

Note: in this case, "upset" merely refers to the unfavored team pulling out a win.

14. Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)

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FOXBORO, MA - OCTOBER 17: Ray Lewis #52 of the Baltimore Ravens reacts before a game with the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on October 17, 2010 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Hmm... a winless team going up against a team the league's third best defense and as many offensive weapons as any other team?

Take the Ravens in this one.

You should probably only take the Bills if you're a diehard fan with delusions of late season heroics, or maybe if you're a close friend of Ryan Fitzpatrick and you don't want to upset his Ivy League feelings.

13. Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-9)

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TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 17: Quarterback Drew Brees #9 of the New Orleans Saints hands the ball off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game at Raymond James Stadium on October 17, 2010 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

The Cleveland Browns have one win, a rookie quarterback, and a couple players that will probably never go over the middle again, no matter what the play is.

The Saints, on the other hand, finally showed up last week against Tampa. They may have a lot of injuries, but they still have a functioning Drew Brees. And that's good enough to give them a shot at beating any team in the NFL.

Don't take the Browns.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Miami Dolphins

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PITTSBURGH - OCTOBER 17: Ben Roethlisberger #7 of the Pittsburgh Steelers looks on while playing the Cleveland Browns on October 17, 2010 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Pittsburgh won the game 28-10. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

The Steelers allow fewer points than anybody in the league, and Miami has one of the lower scoring offenses in football at 17.8 points per game.

In addition, the Dolphins just can't win at home. All three of their wins have come on the road.

Also, the Steelers have Big Ben back. And Rashard Mendenhall should be able to have his way with a defense that is allowing over 100 yards rushing a game.

Only take the Dolphins if you have a serious hunch.

11. Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-8)

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DENVER - OCTOBER 17: Head coach Josh McDaniels of the Denver Broncos celebrates a touchdown by quarterback Tim Tebow #15 in the first half against the New York Jets at INVESCO Field at Mile High on October 17, 2010 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin

The Raiders are losing quarterbacks like Al Davis is losing lawsuits. Hey-Oh!

But seriously, the Raiders are expected to start former Cal standout Kyle Boller, who hasn't started a game in two years. Also, he has lost the last ten games he's started.

The Broncos may be struggling along at 2-4, but they're coming off a strong effort against the Jets. They even got Tim Tebow into the action. He scored his first career touchdown.

Only pick the Raiders if you think they can run their Invesco Stadium win streak to three.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9)

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HOUSTON - OCTOBER 17: Quarterback Matt Cassel #7 of the Kasnas City Chiefs talks with quarterback coach Nick Sirianni during a game against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium on October 17, 2010 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

The Chiefs may have lost two in a row after getting out to an unbeaten start, but they're still good. Each of their losses were close affairs, one of which got out of reach late (against the Colts), and the other was in their hands until the final seconds (against the Texans).

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are coming off a king-hell stomping at the hands of the Titans on Monday Night Football. And worse, David Garrard's concussion is going to keep him out against Kansas City, putting the ball into the hands of Trent Edwards, who was good enough to get released by the Bills.

The Jaguars are hurting, and they're probably still going to be hurting after this weekend.

9. Cincinatti Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

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PHILADELPHIA - OCTOBER 17: Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons passes against the Philadelphia Eagles during their game at Lincoln Financial Field on October 17, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

In the Bengals favor is the fact that they're coming off a bye. Not in their favor is the fact that they had lost two in a row before their week of respite, and now they have to play one of the NFC's best teams.

There are only four teams in the NFC who rack up more yards than the Falcons, and they've scored a combined 57 points on their home turf. You also have to like Michael Turner going up against Cincinnati's defense, which has struggled against the run.

Picking the Bengals obviously isn't the worst idea, but it's not the best idea either.

8. Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

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CHICAGO - OCTOBER 17: Marshawn Lynch #24 of the Seattle Seahawks runs against Charles Tillman #33 and Brian Iwuh #52 of the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on October 17, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Seahawks defeated the Bears 23-20. (Photo by Jonathan

At last we come to a game that features an intriguing underdog. Where's the love for the division leader?

Well, it belongs with the Seahawks at home apparently. And for good reason. The Seahawks have won both of their home games, both of which were upsets over favored opponents, and are coming off yet another upset win at Chicago.

The Cardinals are coming off their bye, which they greeted with that ridiculous win against the Saints. They didn't deserve that one, especially since Max Hall's 65.0 rating was barely better than Derek Anderson's overall rating of 59.5.

Also, the Cardinals would be 2-3 if Sebastian Janikowski could make a field goal. Seattle's not the best team, but at least they're earned their wins.

7. San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Carolina Panthers

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SAN FRANCISCO - OCTOBER 10: Alex Smith #11 of the San Francisco 49ers looks on against the Philadelphia Eagles during an NFL game at Candlestick Park on October 10, 2010 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Last week may have been the first time in NFL history that an 0-5 team was favored by seven points. Lo and behold, the Niners pulled it off.

But they did it against a franchise that may be even more dysfunctional than their own.

And then there's the Panthers. They can't pass the ball (last in the NFL), they can't really run the ball (a mere 99.6 rush yards per game), and they can't score the ball (last in the NFL). The fact that you can say that stuff about a team that has DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Steve Smith is downright depressing.

But hey. They're at home. They're 0-5. Why aren't they favored by seven points?

Ballsy pick, but certainly not stupid.

6. Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears (-3)

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CHICAGO - OCTOBER 17: Jay Cutler #6 of the Chicago Bears talks with offensive coordinator Mike Martz during a time-out as Caleb Hanie #12 listens in against the Seattle Seahawks at Soldier Field on October 17, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Seahawks defea

The Redskins have been one of the better stories so far this year. Big wins over Dallas, Philly, and Green Bay, and a near win against Indianapolis. You have to feel good for Donovan McNabb.

But even despite the Bears baffling loss to Seattle, they still deserve to be favored in this game. They allow fewer points than anybody in the NFC (16.2), and they should be able to win if Jay Cutler can complete more than 43 percent of his passes like he did last week.

Nevertheless, nobody will blame you if you take the Skins. They seem to specialize in surprises.

5. St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

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DETROIT - OCTOBER 10: Sam Bradford #8 of the St. Louis Rams drops back to pass during the fourth quarter during the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on October 10, 2010 in Detroit, Michigan. The Lions defeated the Rams 44-6. (Photo by Leon H

Where's the love for Sam Bradford and the Rams? They've won three of their last four, and have already tripled their 2009 win total. Do you think that might just have something to do with Sam Bradford? He hasn't been great, but he's certainly an upgrade over... wait, who was the Rams quarterback last year?

As for the Bucs, there's no denying that they are also a surprise at 3-2. That being said, there's just nothing that the Bucs do particularly well, on offense or defense.

Thus, this has a potential to be a sloppy game. In games like those, it's a good idea to take the team with the better quarterback.

4. Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans (-3)

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JACKSONVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 18: Quarterback Vince Young #10 of the Tennessee Titans is helped from the field during the first quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the game at EverBank Field on October 18, 2010 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo

This one is the biggest no-brainer to this point in the list. To be sure, the underdog Eagles are not exactly a slam dunk pick, but it certainly seems like the odds should be in their favor.

The Titans and their fans should be very relieved that Vince Young's injury didn't turn out to be serious, but the general consensus is that he won't play against Philadelphia. Kerry Collins isn't chopped liver, but you have to believe that Kevin Kolb is the better backup-but-not-a-backup quarterback.

Also, and this may be neither here nor there, Chris Johnson has only one 100-yard game at home. Probably an anomaly, but you never know.

Take the Eagles.

3. Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

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MINNEAPOLIS - OCTOBER 17: Quarterback Brett Favre #4 of the Minnesota Vikings drops back to pass during the fourth quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Mall of America Field on October 17, 2010 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Vikings defeated the Cowboys

Why does it seem like these are two teams going in opposite directions?

Maybe it has something to do with the way the Packers are epicly failing to live up to the hype.

Brett Favre does seem to be figuring himself out again, and it's in his favor that he is once again returning to the place where he has won 91 games. He also had a four touchdown game in Lambeau Field last year.

Besides, you always have to like Adrian Peterson going up against a mediocre rush defense.

Take the Vikes.

2. New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

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EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - OCTOBER 17: Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants against the Detroit Lions at New Meadowlands Stadium on October 17, 2010 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

What have the Cowboys done exactly to be favored in this game? Come to think of it, the Cowboys have as many losses as the Giants have wins.

Maybe it's the fact that the Cowboys are unbeatable at home... but that's not right. The Cowboys have only one win in the three games they've played at their humble abode so far. And let's not forget that the Giants claimed the first game every played in the Monstrosity in Arlington.

The Cowboys are also going to have to overcome the NFC's best all-around defense (264.8 yards allowed per game). Tall task for a one win team.

Take the Giants.

1. New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (-2.5)

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FOXBORO, MA - OCTOBER 17: Coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots talks to his quarterback Tom Brady during a game against the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium on October 17, 2010 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

The Chargers have the number one defense and the number one offense in the league. Surely, they must be 6-0.

But they're not. They're 2-4, and have lost some pretty ugly games.The main culprit: special teams. Just go watch the film from the Raiders game.

True, you have to respect the fact that nobody has beaten the Chargers at home yet. But you should probably respect the fact that the Patriots just pulled out a gutsy win against the Ravens, and that Tom Brady had absolutely no trouble getting Deion Branch involved in the offense.

Take the Pats.