NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread: Ranking the Best Plays and Games to Avoid
Week 7 Picks are ready to be made as the NFL closes in on the halfway point so let's take a look at the point spreads for every game of the weekend.
There are some interesting numbers out there, with some games closer than you'd think, and others that you'd expect to be closer than they are.
We're breaking down every game of the weekend, and telling you who to pick, what could go wrong, and how much of a lock the pick is. The higher it's lock score, the more of a lock the game is.
Remember, we're not picking winners, we're playing the spread here.
Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints
1 of 14
What's the Line: Saints are 13 point favorites, a high line for this late in a season.
Who You Should Take: The Saints. Sure, the Browns have only lost by 10 or more points twice this season, but New Orleans still has one of the best offenses in all of football. The Superdome is one of the most formidable venues in football, and New Orleans' blitz/secondary combo will harass rookie Colt McCoy all game long.
What Could Go Wrong: Peyton Hillis could light the Saints' lackluster run defense up all day, and the Browns' defense could remember how to play defense. All it takes is a couple of late touchdowns from Hillis, and this bet is ruined. After all, 13 points is a lot.
Lock Rating: 5/10. The Saints will win this game, but there's no guarantee they can do it by 13 points or more. Buyer beware.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
2 of 14
What's the Line: The Chiefs are 9 point favorites.
Who to Pick: Kansas City. They've looked excellent at home this season, and Jacksonville has Todd Bouman starting. What else needs to be said?
What Could Go Wrong: Jacksonville still has Maurice Jones-Drew, who could run wild in this one.
Lock Rating: 8/10. Ladies and gentlemen, you could put this in the books now: Kansas City will win going away.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
3 of 14
What’s the Line: Tennessee by 3.
Who’s the Pick: Tennessee. Chris Johnson can't be stopped, and Philly's offense can't win every game for them. The Titans' defense is much improved over last season, and Philly's can't stop anything.
What Could Go Wrong: Chris Johnson gets hurt, or Jeff Fisher lets Vince Young throw 30 times in this one, because Andy Reid is doing it.
Lock Rating: 7.5/10. As long as Johnson gets his carries, Tennessee will beat the spread.
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Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons
4 of 14
What’s the Line: Atlanta are currently 3.5 point favorites over the Bengals.
Who’s the Pick: Atlanta. Their defense has looked great, and Cincy's offense is just a half beat off. Plus, Atlanta's offense can throw the ball well, with multiple weapons.
What Could Go Wrong: If Bengals' quarterback Carson Palmer can figure himself out, Atlanta's in serious trouble.
Lock Rating: 4/10. Atlanta should cover this spread at home, but the Bengals should make this one extremely close.
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears
5 of 14
What’s the Line: Chicago find themselves 2.5 point favorites this week against Washington.
Who’s the Pick: The Bears. With a pass defense like Washington's, you don't think Jay Cutler's going to have a field day? Plus Chicago's defense should close down Washington's offense with ease.
What Could Go Wrong: The Redskins' pesky blitz plus Chicago's shoddy offensive line could spell danger.
Lock Rating: 6/10. The spread is low enough that you're basically picking a winner, but Washington could pull this one out.
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
6 of 14
What’s the Line: Pittsburgh by 3 at home.
Who’s the Pick: Pittsburgh. Miami's defense can't handle the Steelers with Big Ben at the helm, and Pittsburgh's defense is going to have a field day with Miami's offense.
What Could Go Wrong: If Big Ben gets hurt and Charlie Batch comes in, this is a whole new ballgame.
Lock Rating: 10/10. This one's a virtual guarantee. Barring injury, Pittsburgh will win this one handily. Fantastic defense plus clicking offense equals win.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
7 of 14
What’s the Line: Baltimore are 13 point favorites at home against the hapless Bills.
Who’s the Pick: I'm taking the Ravens. Unlike Cleveland, the Bills have not played opponents close, and Baltimore is far superior offensively and defensively. They should roll.
What Could Go Wrong: If the Ravens' team bus gets lost on the way to the stadium, and the refs declare it a forefeit on Baltimore's part, the Ravens won't beat the spread.
Lock Rating: 9/10. When Ryan Fitzpatrick is your quarterback, even a 13 point line isn't enough for me to bet on you.
St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8 of 14
What’s the Line: Tampa Bay are three point favorites in this one.
Who’s the Pick: St. Louis by a hair. Their defensive superiority gives them the edge in this one, but not by much.
What Could Go Wrong: Just about anything. Tampa Bay's the home team, St. Louis has struggled on the road, Josh Freeman could go bananas, you name it, it could happen.
Lock Rating: 1/10. Probably best to stay far away from this one, in a safe house or something.
San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers
9 of 14
What’s the Line: San Francisco are three point favorites on the road here.
Who’s the Pick: San Francisco. The 49ers seem to have righted the ship after that disasterous start, while Carolina just seems to be taking on more and more water.
What Could Go Wrong: San Francisco could turn back into the wonky offensive team they were for the first four games of the year, and Carolina could figure everything out.
Lock Rating: 5/10. This one's solid, but not without doubts. If Matt Moore figures things out, I could be dead wrong here.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
10 of 14
What’s the Line: Seattle are 4.5 point favorites at home against the Cardinals.
Who’s the Pick: Seattle. The Seahawks have looked great at home, terrible on the road. This week's game is at home, which means...
What Could Go Wrong: Arizona's offense could continue to grow with Max Hall at quarterback, and Beanie Wells could remember that the goal isn't to run for 2 yards and get tackled, it's to avoid the guys trying to tackle you and gain as many yards as possible.
Lock Rating: 7/10. This one's pretty safe, outside of the Max Hall/ Larry Fitzgerald connection.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
11 of 14
What’s the Line: Denver are 8.5 point favorites in this one.
Who’s the Pick: The Broncos. Partly because of Kyle Orton's awesome face in this picture, and partly because Nnamdi Asomugha can't cover everyone.
What Could Go Wrong: Oakland's two headed backfield of Michael Bush and Darren McFadden blow up the Denver defense, racking up 300 yards between them. That seems more plausible than Jason Campbell being a functional quarterback in the NFL.
Lock Rating: 6.5/10. This one should be a no brainer, but the high line scares me a bit. Bet it if you must, be be warned it's no lock.
New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers
12 of 14
What’s the Line: San Diego gets the benefit of home field advantage, as 3 point favorites over the Patriots.
Who’s the Pick: New England. The Patriots offense looked good last week, and should have success against the Chargers. Plus, it looks as though San Diego could be without both top wideout Malcom Floyd and star tight end Antonio Gates, increasing the likelihood New England's defense can stop them.
What Could Go Wrong: If San Diego's offense clicks, this one could go their way quite easily. Also, if the Pats' offense sputters this week, they could fall on the road.
Lock Rating: 5/10. New England can beat the Chargers, whether they will is another matter entirely.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
13 of 14
What’s the Line: The Packers are three point favorites.
Who’s the Pick: Green Bay. They're the better team, even with all of the injuries across the board. Minnesota's been shaky all season long.
What Could Go Wrong: Crazy things happen whenever Favre returns to Lambeau. I've got the feeling this week won't be any different.
Lock Rating: 3/10. Stay away from this one if you can.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
14 of 14
What’s the Line: Despite their 1-4 record, Dallas finds themselves 3 point favorites.
Who’s the Pick: New York. The Giants have looked better all season long, and have you seen the Cowboys' offensive line? Talk about a mess.
What Could Go Wrong: The Cowboys are playing at home, and the passing game hasn't been awful this year. The defense is average, and with Eli Manning throwing the ball, there's always the chance for one of those three interception games.
Lock Rating: 6/10. Unless Romo goes crazy and Manning goes in the tank, this should be a strong pick. Although, both of those are very real possibilities.
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