College Football Bowl Projections for Week 7: Boise St. Vs. TCU for BCS Title?
Welcome to theย seventh installment of the weeklyย Bleacher Report Bowl Projection series.
Summary and analysis is presented for all 35 BCS bowl games.
In ย the following pages you will find specific articlesย regarding theย 20 highest-paying BCS bowls, each detailing how the teams were chosen and who will be the most likely contenders for these contests.
The remainingย 15 bowls reward participants with payoutsย of less thanย $1 million. These contests are listedย as a group on page two of this article.
The choicesย presented here are updatedย on a weekly basis. They include the outcome of past games and a team's upcoming schedule.
Reader participation is strongly encouraged each and every week. All followers should feel free to leave comments regarding their impressions of bowl matchups and how these games may develop over the course of the season.
Participants that leave comments will make a difference in what schools are selected for the bowl games. Final analysis and predictions will be a combination of the readers' suggestions and the writer's personal opinions.ย
Theย bowl presentation order reflectsย the amount ofย moneyย paid toย schools for playing in the game.
Information concerningย conference affiliations to specificย bowl gamesย is part of each analysis.
We kindly ask all readers to provide their ideas and predictions of whichย teamsย go to these contests. Only with your assistance may we gather aย consensus regardingย theย continuing developments and provide the most accurate predictions possible.
Now that we've covered the bases, let us take a look at how the events of last Saturday affected your team and its postseason destination.
The 15 Bowls Paying $1 Million Or Less To Participating Schools
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In the traditional order of bowl projections, the games would be listed in order from first-played to theย last-played.ย Unfortunately, this sort of methodย removes theย element of money paid to the schoolsย and ignores the success ofย teams during the season.
The 35ย bowl games listed here are inย order of the amount ofย money paid to the participants.
By using this system, we do notย "devalue" theย Sugarย Bowlย or increase the prestige of theย Birmingham Bowlย simply based upon what date the bowl game take place.
We begin with the followingย 15ย bowls whoย pay out $1 million or less toย the schools invited.
Bowlย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dateย ย ย ย ย Placeย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Payoutย ย ย ย ย Conf. Tie-Insย ย ย ย ย ย Projected Matchup
No.35: Birminghamย ย ย Jan. 8ย ย ย Birminghamย ย ย $900,000ย SEC, Bigย Eastย ย ย ย Kentucky vs.ย Rutgers
No.34: New Mexicoย ย Dec. 18ย ย Albuquerqueย $750,000ย MWC,ย WACย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย BYUย vs.ย Fresno State
No.33: Armed Forces ย Dec. 30ย ย Dallasย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย CUSA, MWCย ย ย ย ย ย Tulsa vs.ย Army*
No.32: Hawaiiย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 24ย ย Honoluluย ย ย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย CUSA, WACย ย ย ย ย ย Houstonย vs. Hawaii
No.31: Poinsettiaย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 23ย ย San Diegoย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย MWC, Navyย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย San Diego St.ย vs. Navy
No.30: Kraftย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Jan. 9ย ย ย ย San Fran.ย ย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย ย WAC, Pac-10ย ย ย ย Nevada vs. Washington
No.29: GMACย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Jan. 6ย ย ย ย Mobileย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย MAC, Sun Beltย ย ย Temple vs. Troy
No.28: Humanitarianย ย Dec. 18 ย Boiseย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย ย WAC, MACย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Idaho vs.ย Ohio U.
No.27: Little Caesarsย ย Dec. 26ย Detroitย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย $750,000ย ย MAC, Big Tenย ย ย ย ย N. Illinoisย vs. Indiana
No. 26: Texasย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 29ย Houstonย ย ย ย ย ย ย $612,500 ย Big Ten,ย Big 12ย ย ย Illinoisย vs.ย Texas A&M
No. 25: Newย Orleansย ย Dec. 18ย Newย Orleansย $325,000ย ย Sun Belt,ย CUSAย ย M. Tenn St. vs.ย Sou. Miss.
No. 24: MAACOย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 22ย Las Vegasย ย ย $1,000,000ย ย MWC, Pac-10ย ย ย TCUย vs. Arizona State
No. 23: St. Peteย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 21ย St. Peteย ย ย ย ย ย ย $1,000,000ย ย ย Big East, CUSA Sou. Fla.ย vs.ย Central Fla.
No. 22: Eagleย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 29ย Washingtonย $1,000,000ย ย ACC, CUSAย ย ย ย ย ย ย Marylandย vs. E. Carolina
No. 21: Meinekeย ย ย ย ย ย ย Dec. 31ย Charlotteย ย ย ย ย $1,000,000 ย ACC, Big Eastย ย ย ย ย UNC vs.ย UConnย
The choice for the MAACO is TCU based upon the analysis that Utah will defeat TCU in a battle of unbeatens for the Mountain West crown.
Void of theirย high BCS ranking, the Horned Frogs could tumble down the ladder in the manner outlined. Likewise, if Utah loses their homeย contest with TCU, the Utes will be placed in thisย spot for the MWC.ย ย
ย In either case, Arizona Stateย will make a highly desirable opponent in the MAACO.
The St. Petersburg Bowl may latch on to the most intense contest of the early bowl season with Central Florida and South Florida squaring off. It should fill the seatsย needed by thisย bowlย event.
The Kraft Hunger Bowl in San Francisco could find itself with one of the most interesting of the lesser-paying bowl games with Jake Locker and Washington going up against "The Pistol" offense of Nevada.
The Birmingham Bowl sets up another unique challenge for the SEC against a Big East opponent while the New Mexico Bowl continues to labor under the pressure that comes from being theย firstย of all postseason contests each year.
The Armed Forces Bowl may turn to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point if no viable Mountain West opponent is available forย nearby Tulsa of Conference USA.
Theย Eagle Bank, Hawaii, Poinsettia, GMAC, New Orleans, Humanitarian, The Texas,ย Little Caesars and Meineke Bowlsย are examples of choices purelyย ofย more localย interest to fill seats.
In the following pages you will find the 20 bowl games paying outย more than $1 Million to those fortunate enough to receive invitations.
No. 20: The Independence Bowl
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Date:ย December 27, 2010
Place:ย Shreveport, Louisiana
Payout: $1,100,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย Mountain West No.3 vs. ACC No.7
Projected Matchup:ย Air Forceย vs. Ga Tech
The Yellow Jackets provide the name recognitionย under the new ACC contract with the Independence Bowl.
Air Force isย recognized nationally as well, and providesย an outstanding representative under the new contract the Mountain West Conference securedย with the Independence Bowl.
If Tech can pull off the upset of Clemson, they could switch places in the ACC-bowl scenario.ย
No.19: The Dallas Football Classic
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Date:ย January 1, 2011
Place:ย Dallas, Texas
Payout: $1,200,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย Bigย 10 No.ย 7 vs. Bigย 12 No. 8
Projected Matchup:ย Penn Stateย vs. Baylor
The Bears from Waco are enjoying a fine turnaround season and should be rewarded as the host team in the new Dallas Football Classic, played at the site of the old Cotton Bowl stadium.
Penn State provides the national interest element, and coach Joe Paterno is just the man to put the stamp of approval on a new bowl game.
No.18: The Music City Bowl
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Date:ย December 30, 2010
Place:ย Nashville, Tennessee
Payout: $1,600,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย SEC No. 7 vs. ACC No.6
Projected Matchup:ย Mississippi vs. N.C. State
In the strange world of the two premier southern football conferences, the interesting location of Nashville provides a rare postseason opportunity to see how the middle-of-the-road schools compare.
Ole Miss has an exciting offensive attack that will meet an even more formidable offense in the Wolfpack of N.C. State.
Expect this game to go down to the wire.
No.17: The Liberty Bowl
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Date:ย December 31, 2010
Place:ย Memphis, Tennessee
Payout: $1,700,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย SEC No.ย 8 vs.ย Conference USA No. 1
Projected Matchup:ย Arkansas vs. SMU
In the land of Elvis, the storied Liberty Bowl usually provides a measurement for theย Conference USA champion to match strength with the SEC.
SMU has work to do before securing the CUSA title. If they can pull it off, Arkansas fansย will fill the stadium, and the Razorbacks shouldย provide a most-nasty afternoon for Coach June Jones' Mustangs.
No.16: The Sun Bowl
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Date:ย December 31, 2010
Place:ย El Paso, Texas
Payout: $1,900,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย ACC No. 4 vs.ย Pac-10 No. 4
Projected Matchup:ย Clemson vs. Arizona
In the first year of the ACC contract with the venerable Sun Bowl, the Tigers of Clemson should be chosen due to their traveling fan base and exciting brand of football.
Arizona will provide an extraordinary opponent with a regional flavor.
No.15: The Pinstripe Bowl
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Date:ย December 30, 2010
Place:ย The Bronx in New York City
Payout: $2,000,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย Big East No. 4 vs. Bigย 12 No. 7
Projected Matchup:ย Notre Dame vs. Texasย Techย
Yankee Stadium.
New Yorkย has all of the support systemsย in place for the newย Pinstripe Bowl, and the location is sure to become one of the most-popular postseasonย destinations.
The Pinstripe willย pay $2 millionย to its participants, chosen from two BCS conferences as a tie-in.
Notre Dameย is also eligibleย for Big East bowl connectionsย because of contracts in place. The Irish are also listed asย a backup team from the Big 12 in case the conference cannot produce a qualifying team.
New Yorkersย expect two big names to be responsible for entertaining residents of the Big Apple.
Notre Dame and Texasย Techย may be the teams that fill the bill for a casting call off Broadway.
No.14: The Champs Sports Bowl
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Date:ย December 28, 2010
Place: Orlando, Florida
Payout: $2,130,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย ACC No. 3 vs. Bigย East No. 2
Projected Matchup:ย Virginia Techย vs. Pittsburgh
The new Champs Sports Bowl contract brings in the No. 2 team from the Big East to face a highly-regarded ACC opponent.
Pittsburgh coach Dave Wannstedtย has the talent to overhaul any school in the Big East and should finish no lower than second.
Virginia Tech is capable of winning the ACC and going to the Orange Bowl. If they do notย qualify for the Orange Bowl, expect theย Gobblersย to head forย Orlando as a consolation prize.
No.13: The Holiday Bowl
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Date:ย Dec. 30, 2010
Place:ย San Diego, California
Payout: $2,200,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย Pac-10 No. 3 vs. Big 12 No. 5
Projected Matchup:ย Oregon State vs.ย Oklahoma State
Theย Cowboys are a dangerous opponent because ofย their powerful offense. Defense is always a point of emphasis in the rugged Big 12ย conference, but even casual followers of the sport noticeย Okie State canย attack from any point of the field, often making a shambles ofย opponents.ย
Coach Mike Riley of Oregon State has played one of the toughest schedules in the country to this point of the season.ย The Beavers presently have injury problems that may result in a three-wayย struggle with Arizona and Washington for the preferredย San Diego event.
With these two schools, the Holiday would have anย interestingย match with teams that can attract a televised audience and fill the stands.
No.12 The Alamo Bowl
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Date:ย Dec. 29, 2010
Place:ย San Antonio, Texas
Payout: $2,225,00
Conference Tie-Ins: Pac-10 No. 2 vs. Big 12 No. 3
Projected Matchup:ย Stanford vs.ย Missouriย
The Alamo Bowl has a new contract that provides theย San Antonio classic with the second-place team from the Pac-10.
Stanford looks like the most likely candidateย from the West.
Missouriย is a powerfulย team, one who can and will put points on the board. The Tiger defense has been surprisingly surly this season, leading to a newfound respect for ol' Mizzou.
Both teams are dangerous and could wreck the best laid plans of future opponents.
These twoย potentialย BCS squads shouldย make for aย very attractiveย Alamo Bowl.
No.11: The Gator Bowl
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Date: January 1, 2011
Place: Jacksonville, Florida
Payout: $2,750,000
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 6 vs. Big Ten No. 4
Projected Matchup:ย Florida vs.ย Northwestern
This is the first year of the Big Tenย and SEC tie-in Gator Bowl. A top quality matchup will be a necessity for officials, sponsors and local businesses.
Floridaย canย sell out the Jacksonville stadium as long as it can remain the obvious first choice SEC school under the new conference arrangements.ย
Northwestern can bring huge Chicago-area media exposure and still has an outstanding team that will put on a great show for the nation's viewers.
The clash between these two excellent coaches and their teams should make for one of the mostย interestingย contestsย ofย New Year's Day.
No.10 The Outback Bowl
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Date: January 1, 2011
Place: Tampa, Florida
Payout: $3,100,000
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 4 vs. Big Ten No. 3
Projected Matchup:ย South Carolina vs. Wisconsin
The Badgers can make a strong case as theย Big Tenย representative.
Ifย Wisconsin continuesย to improve from week to week they will end up in a BCS location.
Ifย the men from Madisonย fall shortย at any point duringย the rest of the season, Tampaย is a niceย reward forย the powerful team who knocked off top-ranked Ohio State.
If Florida does not defeat Steve Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks in the race for the SEC Eastern division championship,ย the Gamecocks will be an attractive choice for Outback officials.
No.9: The Chick-Fil-A Bowl
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Date: December 31, 2010
Place: Atlanta, Georgia
Payout: $3,250,000 for the ACC and $2,400,000 for the SEC
Conference Tie-Ins: ACC No. 2 vs. SEC No. 5
Projected Matchup:ย Miamiย vs.ย Georgia
If the Hurricanes fail to win the ACC, theyย should end up in Atlanta to face theย nearby Bulldogsย of Athens.
Bulldogย head coachย Mark Richt played quarterback for the Miami Hurricanes in college.
Georgia has turned their season around and looks to finish with a flourish.
The words of former Texas headman Darrell Royalย concerning this possible contestย seem appropriate to reiterate.
Royal, whenย questioned about what it was like to coach against his alma mater (Oklahoma) replied: "You like to beatย the people who don't like you, but you absolutely have to beat your friends."
No.8: The Insight Bowl
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Date: December 28, 2010
Place: Tempe, Arizona
Payout: $3,325,000
Conference Tie-Ins: Big Ten No. 5 vs. Big 12 No. 4
Projected Matchup:ย ย Michiganย vs. Texas
Since the Insight has become a big-money player in the bowl-selection process, it will not be surprising to findย teams with a national following going into the desert to reap the rewards.
When big money is mentioned, Texas is always interested.
Theย Wolverines areย an attractive choice for any postseason event.
The Longhorns put down the Nebraska Cornhuskers on the road and brought renewed respect to the Austin program.
With the big money contract in their back pocket, this battle in the desert would beย a contest as intriguing asย any postseason affair.
No.7: The Cotton Bowl
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Date: January 7, 2011
Place: Arlington, Texas
Payout: $3,575,000
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 3 vs. Big 12 No. 2
Projected Matchup:ย Nebraska vs. Mississippi State
Theย Cotton Bowl, with its storied legacy and incomparable new surroundings, is on the verge of becoming a BCS bowl.
On the first Friday night in January, the Cotton Bowlย will beย the only game on the television and sponsors should expect some of the highest ratings in the postseason.
The maroon Bulldogs from Starkville are demonstrating what can be accomplished when the right coach is in place.
Mississippi State is surprising team after team this season and should be rewarded withย a great bowl game invitation. The Cotton is just what the Doctor ordered.
Nebraska reached for the stars and came up just a bit short, resulting in a hard-to-swallow 20-13 loss to Texas in Lincoln.
The Cornhuskers, with their massive following and national fan base, are a highly desirable choice for the Cotton Bowl.ย
No.6: The Capital One Bowl
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Date: January 1, 2011
Place: Orlando, Florida
Payout: $4,250,000
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 2 vs. Big Ten No. 2
Projected Matchup:ย Alabama vs. Ohio State
It is the game everyone has wanted to see all year, so let's see it.
If the Buckeyes loseย again, they will not receive a BCS invitation. If Alabama loses another game, they will not receive a BCS invitation.
Both teams have incredibly difficult schedules remaining, which could leadย to a showdown in Orlando.
What a battle it would be.
No.5 The Fiesta Bowl
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Date: January 1, 2011
Place: Glendale, Arizona
Payout: $17,000,000
Conference Tie-In: Big 12 No. 1 (see note below)ย vs. BCS At-Large Selection
Projected Matchup:ย Michigan Stateย vs.ย West Virginia
If the Big 12 champion is plucked for the BCS title game, the Fiesta moves up in the "pecking order" and has the choice of many candidatesย as replacements.
Provided Utah defeats TCU, the Utes could be such an attractive selection the Fiesta cannot pass them by.
However, the Fiesta is known to covet Big Ten schools.
If the surprising Spartans of Michigan State can finish with at least 11 victories, they will get theย at-large invitationย from the Fiesta Bowl.
West Virginia should become Big East champion and receive an automatic-BCS bid to face the Spartans.
No.4: The Sugar Bowl
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Date:ย January 4, 2011
Place:ย New Orleans, Louisiana
Payout: $17,000,000
Conference Tie-Ins:ย SEC No. 1 vs.ย BCS At-Large
Projected Matchup:ย LSU vs. Utah
In a year where the SEC looks to be shut out of the BCS title game, the Sugar Bowl takes on a renewed position of importance among conference members.
LSU has won the BCS championship under coach Les Miles. Thatย could give the Tigers the edge they need to defeat Auburn inย the Western division of the SEC.
Utah is the oneย team whoย can defeat TCU and win the Mountain West Conference championship. If the Utes finish with an undefeated record, theyย can make the Sugar Bowl for the second time in three years.
The Sugar could have an undefeated LSU versus an undefeated Utah.
These circumstances mayย provide the Sugar Bowl with the premier matchup prior to the BCSย championship game.
No.3: The Orange Bowl
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Date: January 3, 2011
Place: Miami, Florida
Payout: $17,000,000
Conference Tie-In:ย ACC No. 1 vs. At-Large BCS Selection
Projected Matchup: Florida State vs.ย Auburn
The Florida State Seminoles appear to have the edge on Virginia Tech in terms of being theย most complete team in the ACC.
Put FSU in the Orange Bowl with theย conference tie-in invitation.
The Tigers of Auburn haveย the potential ofย going undefeated and playing for the BCS title. In addition, superstar quarterback Cam Newton (see picture) couldย stomp his way toย the Heisman Trophy.
It should not surprise anyone if Auburn and LSU switch places in the BCS bowl hierarchy, depending upon who wins the SEC West showdown this weekend.ย
No.2: The Rose Bowl
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Date:ย January 1, 2011
Place: Pasadena, California
Payout: $17,000,000
Conference Tie-Ins: Pac-10 No. 1 vs. Big Ten No. 1ย
Projected Matchup:ย Oregonย vs. Iowaย
If there is a BCS title-game participant who must vacate its automaticย invitation to the Rose Bowl, then the most qualified and highest-ranked team from a non-BCS conference is allowed to step in.
Based upon the final rankings,ย several at-large teams may qualify for the invitation to Pasadena.
Oregonย could rideย into November as an undefeated squad worthy of consideration for the BCS title game.
The Ducks have a tough schedule the rest of the seasonย andย could be marked for destruction by USC coachย Lane Kiffin, who needs a signature win to convince Trojan followers he is the man for the job.
Maybe just enough competition remainsย to keepย the Ducksย in the Rose Bowl instead of Glendale.
The Big Ten is aย conference of four squads deservingย BCS consideration at this time.
If the Hawkeyes can calm the Wisconsin Badgers,ย catch Michigan State atย just the right time and parlay their home-field advantage against Ohio State, they will be in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day.
No.1: The BCS Title Game
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The Date: January 10, 2011
The Place: Glendale, Arizona
Payout: $17,000,000
Conference Tie-Ins: None. No. 1 against No. 2 in the final regular season BCS Poll.
Projected Matchup:ย Boise State vs. Oklahoma
These two teams could end the season undefeated and ranked No. 1 and 2 in the final poll.
If that is the case,ย they will play for the BCS title regardless of whatย anyone else accomplishes during the 2010 season.
Oklahomaย has to faceย undefeated Missouri before even qualifying for the Big 12 conference championship game.
The Tigers are quite capable of bringing the dream season of the Sooners to an end.
Boise State continues to defeat everyone they play. If teams around themย begin losing, the Broncos should end the season in one of the top two positions in the final BCS regular season poll.
In a rematch of one of the greatest college football bowl games of all time, let's set the table for Oklahoma vs. Boise State in what promises to be a thrilling contest.
For this week at least.
The Cool Down Lap: The Readers Take Over
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Thanks to David Hedlind, Carl Stine, Tim Croley, Brandon Hamblen, Dan Boone, Ravenous Ute, Alex, Sparty, Zodiac and many othersย for all ofย the information they have provided concerning the Bleacher Report Bowl Projection series.
A tally of the "Big Six" bowl games is in order. From the past week we find the consensus of readers who left commentsย as follows:
BCS National Championship: Oregon vs. Ohio State (That oneย will be changed this week)ย
Rose Bowl: Michigan State vs.ย Boise State (Looks sharp at this point)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. West Virginia
Orange Bowl:ย Miami vs. Auburn
Fiesta Bowl:ย Oklahoma vs.ย TCU
Capital Bowl:ย LSU vs. Iowa
Cotton Bowl: Nebraska vs.ย Arkansasย (The readers knew best concerning the Huskers)
.jpg?w=2560 "Love Not Playing in HOF Game")
