College Football Week 7 Mayhem: Cheering Non-AQ Elite into BCS and Maybe NCG
Want to see a college football playoff? Want to see the BCS powers that be squirm?
Welcome to Chaos Theory—that a non-automatic qualifying team in the National Championship Game and/or another year with two non-AQ teams in the BCS will crumble the system, or at least add some excitement and drama.
Week 7 had some great games and upsets that helped Chaos Theory along. Ironically, none of them involved the three still undefeated non-AQ teams, which each quietly took care of business.
Let's look at those games here, and then we'll look at the results of the other games that helped shape the BCS race. (All poll references are for the AP for that week unless otherwise specified.)
No. 3 Boise State (6-0) 48 @ San Jose State (1-6) 0
The first team offense was basically done at the half, and the win actually hurt the strength of schedule. But what happens when a team is shut out with minus-12 yards rushing? Stats!
Boise State is No. 1 in the country in passing efficiency at 188.1 (also, Kellen Moore is the individual passing efficiency leader at 190.3), rushing defense at 59.3 and total yards allowed at 210.2—pretty awesome. Also of note: third in points per game, third in points allowed per game, fourth in total yards per game and sixth in passing defense per game.
No. 4 TCU (7-0) 31 vs. BYU (2-5) 3
What is notable here is the whisper of resistance BYU is offering as it plans to go independent. Oh, and that by not allowing a touchdown in the last three games, TCU leads the country in defense where it counts—the scoreboard! TCU has allowed a paltry 9.3 points per game.
No. 11 Utah (6-0) 30 @ Wyoming (2-5) 6
What is notable here is not the score, but the fact that Utah won by that margin despite the fact that QB Jordan Wynn threw three interceptions. His quotes say a lot: "I was just careless with the ball," "You can't force it into coverage. It won't happen again. I won't throw three interceptions again," and, "For me to turn the ball over three times and we still win by 24 points shows how good a team we have."
Obviously that needs to get fixed before the Utes travel to Air Force in two weeks and then face TCU at home.
ACC and Big East Slide: BCS Runner-Up Would Have at Least Two Losses
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There are no undefeated teams in either the ACC or the Big East. It seems unlikely that a one-loss team from either conference would make the National Championship Game over an undefeated Boise State, TCU or Utah.
Likewise, it seems unlikely that a two-loss team from either of these conferences would get a BCS bowl selection over an undefeated or even one-loss elite non-AQ team this year, given how poorly these conferences have done this year.
Big East
Pittsburgh (3-3) 45 @ Syracuse (4-2) 14
I doubt anyone believed in Syracuse anyway, but the Pittsburgh win helped Utah's strength of schedule and also left West Virginia as the only one-loss team in the Big East. The odds of the Big East getting a second team into the BCS as an "at-large" team seem remote at best.
ACC
These two under-the-radar games also eroded any chance of the ACC getting a second team into the BCS as an "at-large" team. Florida State (6-1) is the only remaining one-loss ACC team.
Clemson (3-3) 31 vs. Maryland (4-2) 7
East Carolina (4-2) 33 vs. North Carolina State (5-2) 27
Another ACC embarrassment, as the once-ranked Wolfpack drop a game to a Conference USA team.
For Boise State fans, Virginia Tech's continued rise back to respectability is a big plus. Virginia Tech's (now 5-2) offense exploded on Wake Forest (2-5) as they won 52-21 at home, and they reentered the rankings at No. 23. Since Virginia Tech is undefeated in conference play, they could make a BCS run that would help Boise State tremendously in terms of public perception and strength of schedule.
Pac-10: Beaver Letdown and USC Rebound
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The biggest Pac-10 winner was Oregon, who presumably sat around on their couches cheering on Wisconsin, which conveniently toppled No. 1 Ohio State for them.
Since USC (4-2) can't go bowling due to sanctions, they are safe to root for from a BCS point of view. The way USC took out Cal (3-3) 48-14 at home provides some hope that they might just beat Oregon at home in two weeks.
On the downside, you could hear the groans from Boise State and TCU fans across the country as No. 24 Oregon State (3-3) lost at Washington (3-3) 35-34. The loss counted for a lot in terms of both public perception and computer SOS for both teams, as Oregon State fell far out of the AP rankings.
Boise State Opponents
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For strength of schedule, generally how conference teams do against each other means very little, as they tend to cancel each other out. The exception comes when one of those opponents is highly noticeable, undefeated or ranked.
Thus Nevada's 27-21 loss in Hawaii (5-2) definitely hurt Boise State because it cost them the chance to beat a notable opponent.
There is a big difference between an undefeated, No. 19-ranked 6-0 Nevada with a dark horse Heisman candidate in Colin Kaepernick and a 6-1 unranked Nevada with a QB that threw two interceptions and fumbled twice last week.
As for Boise State's out of conference opponents:
Virginia Tech (5-2) won at home against Wake Forest (2-5), as noted previously.
Wyoming (2-5) lost at home to No. 11 Utah (6-0) 30-6. For comparison's sake, Boise State beat Wyoming 51-6, and TCU beat Wyoming 45-0. I think it is a mistake to draw too many conclusions from the number of style points earned though.
Also noted previously, Boise State took a big hit with Oregon State's loss to Washington.
The final out of conference opponent is Toledo, which improved to 4-3 with a 34-21 home victory over Kent State. For what it is worth, Toledo is 3-0 is MAC conference play, and it certainly would not hurt Boise State's reputation if Toledo made a MAC championship run.
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Utah and TCU Opponents
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For strength of schedule, generally how conference teams do against each other means very little, as they tend to cancel each other out. The exception comes when one of those opponents is highly noticeable, undefeated or ranked.
Air Force's 27-25 loss at San Diego State (4-2) definitely hurt both Utah and TCU because it cost them the chance to beat a notable opponent.
Nothing against San Diego State, which is showing remarkable improvement, but a strong Air Force would definitely have helped both TCU and Utah, who lack any currently ranked opponents other than each other.
Before the loss No. 23-ranked Air Force was 5-1, and the lone loss was a 27-24 game at Oklahoma (currently AP No. 3, BCS No. 1), so the loss was almost a cause for respect.
TCU's out of conference opponents
As noted previously, Oregon State's (3-3) 35-34 OT loss at Washington hurt public perception of the SOS for both Boise State and TCU.
TCU really should not be scheduling FCS teams. The fact that Tennessee Tech beat Eastern Illinois 34-20 is irrelevant in the greater SOS argument.
What is relevant is the way Baylor's season is developing. TCU drubbed Baylor 45-10 back in the third week. But Baylor is now 5-2 after beating 3-3 Colorado this week 31-25, including a 2-1 Big 12 record. Baylor could be a bowl-bound team.
SMU (4-3) dropped a game 21-28 to Navy (4-2) but still could be a Conference USA factor.
Utah's out of conference opponents
As previously noted, Pittsburgh (3-3) beat Syracuse (4-2) on the road, 45-14.
San Jose State (1-6) lost to No. 3 Boise State (6-0) by a score of 48-0. Since the Broncos pulled the starting offense at the half, there is little to compare to Utah's 56-3 victory in Week 4.
Iowa State dropped to 3-4 by losing 52-0 to then-No. 6 Oklahoma (6-0).
Future opponent Notre Dame (4-3) beat Western Michigan (2-4) at home 44-20.
Big 12: Thank You Texas!
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Texas provided the elite non-AQ teams a huge favor by winning on the road at No. 5 Nebraska 20-13.
Oklahoma (6-0) pounded Iowa State (3-4) 52-0, which does not help Utah's SOS...
Surprising Baylor (5-2) did TCU a SOS favor though by taking down Colorado (3-3) 31-25.
Next week more undefeated and one-loss Big 12 teams should fall, as No. 3 Oklahoma (6-0) goes to No. 18 Missouri (6-0) and Nebraska (5-1) travels to No. 17 Oklahoma State (6-0). Guaranteed Chaos!
Big Ten: Thanks Wisconsin!
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John Clay and James White exposed No. 1 Ohio State as being overrated (again) with a sweet 31-18 beatdown, including a no-touchdown, one-interception performance by Terrelle Pryor.
For the second week in a row, the perfect form of Chaos has reigned—No. 1 being soundly beaten.
Also notable was No. 15 Iowa's (5-1) 38-28 defeat of Michigan (5-2). For Chaos lovers, one-loss marquee teams with Heisman candidates like Michigan are worth cheering when they go down, and for the second week in a row former Heisman front runner Denard Robinson had a rough time.
Next week current No. 10 Wisconsin (5-1) travels to No. 13 Iowa (5-1), so one of them has to fall further back...
In another great game for dropping an undefeated or one-loss team, No. 8 Michigan State (7-0) goes to Northwestern (5-1).
SEC Mayhem Continues!
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It's hard to imagine a National Championship Game without the SEC—but imagine this scenario for a moment...
Every single team in the SEC East already has two or three conference losses, and two to four losses overall. What happens if one of those teams wins the SEC championship? Wouldn't it be hard to send even a one-loss loser of that game to the National Championship Game over the team that won?
That is the kind of chaos to really root for! In the meantime, let them lose...
Hurrahs for Week 7 in the SEC:
No. 12 Arkansas (4-2) took a second loss, 65-43. Okay, it would have been better if they knocked off No. 7 Auburn (7-0), but Alabama and LSU still have a shot at that. It's worth cheering for any SEC team's second loss... Also, can Auburn stay undefeated with that kind of defense?
Even better—if you watched South Carolina take down then-No. 1 Alabama, you might have been impressed. So it's definitely worth a cheer to have Kentucky (4-3) defeat No. 10 South Carolina (4-2) 31-28. Now every team in the SEC East now has at least two losses.
It takes a lot to drop a team with recent national championships out of the rankings altogether. But Mississippi State (5-2) beat No. 23 Florida (4-3) by a low-scoring 10-7 final. Yep, that did it. But Florida is in such a weak division this year that at 2-3 in SEC play they can still win the division by winning their remaining SEC games.
Next week an undefeated team must fall, as No. 6 LSU goes to No. 5 Auburn...let Chaos rule...
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
