NFL Week 6 Spread Picks: Picking Against Vegas in Week's Biggest Matchups

Picking winners against the spread is tough. It's especially tough if you put too much time and effort into coming up with a winner. Sometimes you need to go with your gut instead of research.

Last week I had my worst week of the season going 6-8 against the spread. Why do I bring it up? I bring it up because last week I put way too much time in researching games, searching for expert opinions, and spending time discussing games with others.

It just so happened that two weeks ago I put little time and energy into my picks and came away with an 11-3 mark in Week 4.

This week I'm looking for a balance between the two to come out with a winning record in Week 6.

Instead of picking the full of slate of games—which can become tiresome—I'm going to focus on what many are deeming the biggest games of the weekend.

Enough rambling let's get started.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

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GLENDALE, AZ - OCTOBER 10: Quarterback Drew Brees #9 of the New Orleans Saints prepares to snap the ball during the NFL game against the Arizona Cardinals at the University of Phoenix Stadium on October 10, 2010 in Glendale, Arizona. The Cardinals defeat

Line: New Orleans -4.5

Pick: Tampa Bay +4.5

Why Tampa will cover: Who would have thunk that the Saints would be sitting in third place behind the Atlanta Falcons and Buccaneers? Definitely not this guy. The Saints continue to disappoint bettors who have been backing them this season. 

New Orleans has failed to cover in four of their five games and will be on the road for the second consecutive week. While Tampa Bay is coming off an impressive come-from-behind-win in Cincinnati and brimming with confidence.

The truth is the Saints were a good team last year, but they weren't great team like so many have made them out to be. They caught a good majority of breaks in a number of games last season and managed to come out on top when it mattered. A year later New Orleans doesn't seem to have the magic with them anymore.

The offense isn't producing anything close to like they were a year ago. Injuries have also played a factor especially the lost of the dynamic Reggie Bush. 

Until the Saints show that their offense is clicking they can't be trusted laying points on the road against an upstart team.

Baltimore at New England

Marc Serota/Getty Images

MIAMI - OCTOBER 04: Quarterback Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots with Reciever Wes Welker #83 during warm ups against the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium on October 4, 2010 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images)

Line: New England -3

Pick: Baltimore +3

Why Baltimore will cover: The Ravens are getting three points against a New England team that became less explosive with Randy Moss being shipped to Minnesota. Baltimore has already won in Pittsburgh and New York proving that they can get the job done on the road.

The Patriots will be looking to get revenge after last season's playoff stomping they took at the hands of the Ravens. It's not going to happen. Joe Flacco is a year older, Anquan Boldin is now in the mix, and Ray Rice finally got on track last week.

Simply put, the Ravens are more balanced on offense and have a far superior defense. Tom Brady and co. may jump out to an early lead but over the course of the game the Patriots' defense won't be able to hold up. 

Like New Orleans, the Patriots are getting too much respect based on what they've done in prior years.

Atlanta at Philadelphia

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SAN FRANCISCO - OCTOBER 10: LeSean McCoy #25 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs against the San Francisco 49ers during an NFL game at Candlestick Park on October 10, 2010 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Line: Philadelphia -3

Pick: Atlanta + 3

Why Atlanta will cover: Another case of a better team getting points on the road. The Falcons won't get to see their former franchise quarterback opposing them Sunday as Michael Vick is likely out again. That leaves things up to Kevin Kolb for a second consecutive week.

Kolb looked good against San Francisco, but now he will have to do it against a team that makes limited mistakes something the 49ers seem incapable of. 

Atlanta boasts the second-best rushing attack averaging 148.8 yards per game. Michael Turner and Jason Snelling wear on a defense over the course of a 60-minute game giving Matt Ryan opportunities to make plays down field.

The Falcons are the NFC's best team right now. They have a top-flight receiver in Roddy White, a steady QB, and a ground and pound running game that will keep them in every game. While Atlanta is far from a flashy team they are solid all around yet they continue to fly under the radar.

This should be a hard-fought close game.

Indianapolis at Washington

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PHILADELPHIA - OCTOBER 03: Donovan McNabb #5 of the Washington Redskins celebrates after throwing a first quater touchdown pass against the Philadelphia Eagles on October 3, 2010 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jim Mc

Line: Indianapolis -3

Pick: Indianapolis -3

Why Indy will cover: Both teams will go into Sunday night's contest 3-2 on the year. Peyton Manning and the Colts' offense was kept in check last week against Kansas City, but don't expect the same to happen against Washington.

One of the ways to beat the Colts is to run the ball and ugly the game up. The Chiefs were able to do that and held Indy to 19 points. Washington is going to need to run the ball to keep this game close and right now they rank 25th in the NFL in rushing yards. Clinton Portis is out leaving Ryan Torain to carry the load.

If Indy can keep the running game in check that will force Donovan McNabb to beat them through the air. McNabb's numbers haven't been great early on as he has struggled with his accuracy thus far. 

Manning will be going against a Redskin defense giving up nearly 300 yards through the air, which has to have Peyton licking his chops. With the way the Redskins have struggled defensively at points this season it's quite possible the Colts could cruise to a double-digit victory.

Dallas at Minnesota

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - OCTOBER 11: (L-R) Brett Favre #4, Randy Moss #84 and Percy Harvin #12 of the Minnesota Vikings huddle up on offense against the New York Jets at New Meadowlands Stadium on October 11, 2010 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by

Line: Minnesota -1.5

Pick: Minnesota

Why Minnesota will cover: The loser of this game will be faced with the daunting task to overcome a 1-4 start. Dallas was absolutely destroyed in the playoffs last year by the Vikings and will be looking for revenge. With both teams desperate for a win this has Game of the Week written all over it.

The Vikings will have dome-field advantage and with Randy Moss returning to the Metrodome things are going to get rowdy. If the Cowboys hope to win this game they're going to need Tony Romo to make smart decisions throughout the game.

Romo has put up great stats early on but costly interceptions have hurt Dallas. Brett Favre knows a thing or two about costly interceptions also. Brad Childress needs to get the ball to Adrian Peterson early and often.

The best cure for Favre's sore elbow and early season struggles is a heavy dose of AP. In the end the home crowd, AP, and Favre-to-Moss will bee too much for the struggling Cowboys.