NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread: Patriots Ready For Revenge Against Ravens
This edition of the NFL Picks Against the Spread should be called, “What Goes Up, Must Come Down.”
All year long I had picked .500 against the spread, and then in Week 4, I broke the streak and finished with a winning record. Sure enough I followed that up with my first losing week of the season.
My record in week 5 was an abysmal 5-9 with a crushing last-minute loss on a pick-six, but I digress.
On the year, that brings my seasonal record to 36-38 ATS.
Well, now on to Week 6, and I went back to the basics, did my homework early, and I am ready to go.
Here are the picks for every game against the spread in Week 6 in the NFL.
(Byes: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona and Carolina)
Baltimore at New England
1 of 14
1:00 PM CBS Gillette Stadium
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game, and they have the Patriots listed as three-point home favorites.
The Patriots had a bye week, but they made plenty of noise during their off week when they traded away All-Pro wide receiver Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings for a third-round draft pick. Now they will have to prove they can win without him when they try and get revenge against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Pats have had this game circled and even the usually reserved head coach Bill Belichick has mentioned getting some revenge. The Patriots also have to prove to the fanbase that life will be all right without Randy Moss in the offense.
The Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in New England and 2-5 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Pats are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games following a win of more than 14 points and had the bye week to fully prepare for this meeting. The Pats get revenge and a big win against Baltimore.
Pats -3
San Diego at St. Louis
2 of 14
1:00 PM CBS Edward Jones Dome
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game, and they have the Chargers as 8.5-point favorites.
I am sure no one would have guessed at this point in the season that the Chargers and the Rams would have the same number of wins. However, here we are in Week 6, and both the Rams and the Chargers have two wins on the season. Good news for the Rams, not so much for the Bolts.
This becomes a very important game for the Chargers as they take on the Rams. The Chargers offense played very well last week, but the special teams let them down. This week they fix that and win by double digits. The Chargers perform well after a loss.
The Bolts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. They use the carpet to their advantage and are 22-7 ATS in dome games, while the Rams are 3-11 ATS off a road loss.
Get this line before it hits 10 points.
Chargers -9
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
3 of 14
1:00 PM FOX Raymond James Stadium
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game, and they have the Saints listed as five-point favorites.
The New Orleans Saints head to Tampa Bay off one of the worst losses of the season. They were outplayed in every facet of the game in a shocking loss to the Cardinals. They now have to regroup in time to take on a Tampa Bay team that is off an upset win over the Bengals and only has one loss on the season.
The Buccaneers are for real, and this week they make the cut as a divisional dog. The Saints are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 against the NFC and 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Buccaneers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Buccaneers are for real, people, and the Saints are having some major troubles. Take the points and the home dog Bucs.
Bucs +5
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Detroit at NY Giants
4 of 14
1:00 PM FOX New Meadowlands Stadium
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game, and they have the Giants as 10-point chalk at home.
The Lions are off their first win of the season and have played admirably against some tough opponents, losing close games to the Packers, Eagles and Bears.
With the exception of an embarrassing loss to the Colts, the Giants have looked like they have all the making of a Super Bowl contender. The only concern heading into this game is the look ahead for the big game against the Cowboys, but the Giants look surprisingly focused at the moment.
The Lions have been lousy dogs to bet on as they are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Giants are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a win and 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games in October. I am dropping the double digits one more time.
Giants -10
Atlanta at Philadelphia
5 of 14
1:00 PM FOX Lincoln Financial Field
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game, and they have the Eagles as three-point favorites.
The Eagles are off a very strong road win in San Francisco, and at least one member will be eager to face the Falcons.
Michael Vick may not start at quarterback, but he will definitely see some playing time against his former team.
The Falcons finished off the Browns for a road victory and this year have played tough on the road. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog. The Eagles will have to travel back to the East Coast, and it will be tough to recover from that trip.
The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite, 1-5 ATS in their last six against the NFC and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. This game will be close in the early going, but the Falcons will pull away with another impressive win on the road.
Falcons +3
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
6 of 14
1:00 PM CBS Heinz Field
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game, and they have the Steelers as 14-point favorites.
This number is going to rise over the coming days with the announcement of a rookie quarterback getting his first start. Colt McCoy will get the nod for the Browns, and you have to feel sorry for this kid. He takes on one of the best defenses in the league, and Ben Roethlisberger will be making his first start for the Steelers.
I am going to stay very far away from this game, but since I post picks on every game I will take the points and the Browns.
The way I look at it, the Browns will go with a simple offense and run the ball (or try to) and Ben will need some time to readjust to the football field. The Browns are 8-1 ATS in their last nine against the AFC and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The Steelers are 1-6 ATS against a team with a losing record and will win, but won’t cover the big number.
Browns +14 (wait for 15)
Kansas City at Houston
7 of 14
1:00 PM CBS Reliant Stadium
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game, and they have the Texans as 4.5-point favorites. This is a battle of two teams that have started off well, but the jury is still out on the possible success they could have during the season.
The Chiefs were undefeated before losing to the Colts in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated.
The Texans were dismantled by the Giants and embarrassed at home. The once-potent offense was anemic, and they own possibly the worst defense in the NFL.
The Chiefs are the better team in this game, and I will gladly take the points. They are 19-6 ATS away off a loss by 10 or more points and 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. The Texans are 1-3-2 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite and have a very good chance of losing this game outright.
Chiefs +4.5
Oakland at San Francisco
8 of 14
4:05 PM CBS Candlestick Park
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game and they have the 49ers as 6.5-point favorites against the Raiders.
San Francisco lost a close match at home against Philly in a game that they should have won, and Alex Smith was almost pulled from. Since then, Mike Singletary has come out in defense of his quarterback and said he would start one more week and the ownership has said they would win the division. While that is yet to be seen, they will win this game.
The Raiders are off a very big divisional win and are primed for some letdown. This has been a problem in the past as they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.
Alex Smith responded very well after being pounded by boos and drove his team to two late touchdown drives, and that will carry over to this game. The 49ers are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.
49ers -6.5
Seattle at Chicago
9 of 14
1:00 PM FOX Soldier Field
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game, and the Bears are 7-point favorites.
The Bears won easily on the road against the Carolina Panthers without quarterback Jay Cutler. Cutler was sitting out with a concussion after getting beat around by the Giants.
The Seattle Seahawks will have a new player in uniform this week as they traded for running back Marshawn Lynch from the Buffalo Bills.
This is a big game for the Seahawks because they have to prove they can play on the road as well as they play at home. The bad news is they will have to face quarterback Jay Cutler, who was cleared to play in this game. It is still undecided if he is 100 percent, and one hit could change this game. With that being said, Seattle deserves a look.
They filled a need with a solid running back and that will completely change this offense. The Seahawks may not win, but it will be close so I am taking the points.
The Bears are 9-20-2 ATS in their last 31 games following a win and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. I’ll take the points.
Seattle +7
Miami at Green Bay
10 of 14
1:00 PM CBS Lambeau Field
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game, and they have the yet to release a line on the game.
The Miami Dolphins resume play after a bye week, but don’t have an easy start as they travel to Lambeau Field to play the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers received some bad news on the injury front, as it was announced that tight end Jermichael Finley will get surgery on his knee this week,and quarterback Aaron Rodgers may sit out with a concussion.
Until I am certain on the status of Rodgers, I won’t make a pick. Once that is announced, I will be back with my pick.
NY Jets at Denver
11 of 14
4:05 PM CBS Invesco Field at Mile High
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game, and they have the Jets as 3-point favorites on the road.
The Jets are off a sloppy win over the Vikings, but they need to work on their execution. The weather didn’t help, and now they have to get ready for the Broncos on a short week.
The Broncos were beat up by the Ravens, but they are a better team than they showed in that game. Quarterback Kyle Orton is having a career year and will put some points up against the Jets.
The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in October. The Broncos will take advantage of the short week of rest and pull off the upset victory at home.
Broncos +3
Dallas at Minnesota
12 of 14
4:15 PM FOX Metrodome
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game, and they have the Vikings as slim 2-point home favorites.
It’s amazing to think that the loser of the game could potentially be out of the playoffs with such a bad start to the season.
The Cowboys seem to be just as bad off as the Vikings, but I think they are a better-rounded team. They execute on offense and are the fourth-best offensive unit in the league.
The Vikings had trouble executing on offense, and the defense had to endure a lot of playing time on the field on Monday night. They won’t be able to rebound on a short week, and the Cowboys will get the upset win.
The Cowboys are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game and the Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Cowboys +2
Indianapolis at Washington
13 of 14
8:20 PM NBC FedEx Field
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game, and they have the Colts as 3-point favorites over the Redskins.
Is anyone ready to believe in the Redskins yet? They beat the Eagles, then followed that up with an impressive come-from-behind win against the Green Bay Packers.
The schedule doesn’t get any easier when they host Peyton Manning and the Colts. The Colts are a Super Bowl contender, but their weakness has been exposed. They rank 29th in the NFL in run-defense, and the opposition has hit the ground to rack up yards and keep the ball away from Manning.
The Skins are playing with confidence and believe they can beat anyone. The Redskins are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and will keep paying off for bettors that back them in 2010. Washington has been a solid bet for more this year, and I will try it one more time.
Redskins +3
Tennessee at Jacksonville
14 of 14
8:30 PM EverBank Field
BetPhoenix has posted the NFL odds for this game, and they have the Titans as 2-point road favorites for this prime-time battle.
The Titans are a very confusing team. They blow a lead at home to the Denver Broncos, then take to the road and beat down the Dallas Cowboys. They hit the road again for Monday night and will take on the suddenly surging Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jags stomped Buffalo and have now strung back-to-back wins together. They are doing it by running the ball, as they are fourth in the league in gaining yards on the ground with 146 yards per game.
The home underdog is always deadly on Monday night and even deadlier when it’s in division. The Titans are 1-10 ATS against a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
The home team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings, and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. The Jaguars are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0 and they win this game on Monday Night Football.
Jags +2
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Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews, and predictions. Feel Free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com
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