NFL Predictions Week 6: Which Teams Are Really As Good or Bad As They Appear?
For years now, people have spoken about how much parity there was in the NFL. While you could use statistics to argue the point in either direction, there is no debate that no sports league offers teams a chance to turn around their fortunes so fast. While that is great in the regular season though, ultimately,a small elite group of teams always seem to be around in mid-January, especially in the AFC.
However, no one dare argue that it's the good 'ole boys dominating the league again this year. Not when you see that after five weeks Washington, Chicago, Arizona, and Kansas City are leading their divisions while others like San Diego, Dallas, San Francisco are all at or tied for last place.
Everywhere you look, you see surprises one way or another, such as the Buccaneers starting out 3-1 while the Vikings are 1-3.
I did a column last week that I encourage you look at that talked about how brilliant ESPN is looking with their simulated projections of the NFL season. While many, including myself panned it and called it asinine, it appears whatever simulator they used, they saw this would not be an ordinary season.
For example, it predicted teams like the Chiefs, Redskins, Bears and Cardinals to make the playoffs and Vikings, Cowboys, Saints and Chargers to all miss.
The question is, which teams are fooling us into believing they're something they really are not? What disappointment can turn it around, and which current contender might yet end up in the basement by Week 17?
Let's take a look.
Teams Playing Up To Their Preseason Expectations
1 of 22
Let's take a brief look at teams that are playing to their expectations.
AFC:
1) Buffalo: I believe most people saw this coming for the Bills. Perhaps no one thought they would be this bad, but there weren't many fans that had Buffalo finishing anywhere but last. The sad thing for this franchise, that desperately needs some good news, is with their roster and rough schedule, an 0-16 record may not be out of the question.
2) New York Jets: They were everyone's sexy pick to go to the Super Bowl this year and after five games, you have to believe they're worthy of the consideration as a true contender. With wins over the Pats, Dolphins and Vikings, and a near miss against the Ravens, the Jets look to be in great shape in fighting for a bye.
3) Miami Dolphins: The question isn't so much is it a surprise the Dolphins are 2-2, it's how they arrived to that point. Many people thought the Dolphins would start around .500, but after starting 2-0 with two road wins, there was talk about them being a contender. Then they get man handled at home against their two AFC East rivals. Most people predicted this team to toil between 8-8 and 10-6 and it appears they're heading down that path.
4) Baltimore: The other trendy AFC Super Bowl pick also has not disappointed. A loss to the Bengals was more than made up for by a crucial road win at Pittsburgh two weeks later. While it will be a dog fight to see who wins the AFC North, the Ravens should make the playoffs comfortably.
5) Cleavland: They're playing right around the level most people envisioned. There are some good signs for the team, as they've been competitive in almost every game despite numerous quarterback injuries. Still, they're on pace for a 3-13 or 4-12 season which would shock no one.
6) Tennessee: In a very competitive AFC South, it's no real surprise that the Titans are in the thick of things with a 3-2 record. No one believed they were as bad as their 0-6 start from a year ago. Yet many didn't believe they were as talented as their 8-2 finish. So it's no shock to see them right in the middle at this point.
7) Oakland: Most felt the team might be able to get out of their five win funk, and starting out at 2-3, it appears they could be meddling around the 6-10 or 7-9 range by the end of the season. Sadly enough, six wins would be their best season since their Super Bowl appearance.
8) Denver: With the departures of so many weapons over the past few years, and the season ending injury to Elvis Dumerville, not many people saw this team as a contender. At 2-3, they're playing right around the .500 level most predicted.
NFC:
9) New York Giants: The Giants this year were predicted to finish right in the middle of the Wild Card race ranging from a 7-9 to 10-6 record. Starting the year 3-2 and playing inconsistent is really surprising no one. A positive for Giants fans though is their defensive woes may be getting solved finally.
10) Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles were a team some saw falling apart after the departure of Donovan McNabb whereas others saw Kevin Kolb succeeding and the Eagles winning the division. After five weeks, that type of debate continues except with much more drama at quarterback. Despite the roller coaster of Vick and Kolb and losing to McNabb at home, there aren't many surprised to see them start 3-2. A crucial test against the Falcons this week shoudl tell us more about this team.
11) Detroit Lions: After a 41-6 rousing victory, it was tough to say the Lions were meeting expectations, however most people saw this team starting 1-4. With that said, they look like the "best" 1-4 team in a long time as they have scored the most points in the NFC, have a positive point differential, and should have beaten the Bears. However, they're still 1-4 and with a hard schedule, they'll most likely end up around 4-12, which was predicted.
12) Seattle Seahawks: The 'Hawks are 2-2 right now which shouldn't shock anyone. Their journey has been a bit unconventional however beating teams like the Chargers, but then laying an egg against the Rams. Being inconsistent like this throughout the season is expected for a team in transition on and off the field.
To Tell The Truth: Which Teams Are Fooling Us? We Start With The Patriots
2 of 22
I don't think it should surprise anyone the Patriots started off this season 3-1. They've been a consistent force in this league for a decade now, yet it could be argued that after the departure of Randy Moss, this is one of the weaker Patriot rosters during that span. With a defense that is weak against the pass, and a receiving corps that now consists of Wes Welker, Brandon Tate and the returning Deion Branch, it could be hard for this team to make the postseason.
They have a very hard schedule this season and in an AFC where a 10-6 record could quite possibly miss the postseason, the Patriots may in fact not be quite as good as their early start indicates.
Cincinnati Bengals
3 of 22
The struggle of the Bengals is by no means the biggest shock of this NFL season. Between a tough division, the uncertainty of how T.O. would fit, and the fact that they are well...the Bengals, made many question if they could have repeated their 2009 success.
After a loss to the Cleavland Browns and the awful play of their once great franchise quarterback Carson Palmer, I don't believe their struggles are going to be temporary. For these reasons, I expect the Bengals to go around 7-9.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Pittsburgh Steelers
4 of 22
The Pittsburgh Steelers and their quarterback Ben Roethlisberger were often the talk of the off-season this past summer. With their start quarterback out the first four games, most were fearful that Dennis Dixon and later Charlie Batch would not succeed. But at 3-1, with only a last minute loss to the Ravens as their blemish, most fans could not have asked for more, seeing as most would have been giddy for a 2-2 start.
I also believe the return of Troy Polamalu, who missed much of last season was perhaps even more important to this teams resurgence
With Big Ben coming back this week, the Steelers not only are going to remain in contention, they could very well be looking for a ring for a seventh finger.
Jacksonville Jaguars
5 of 22
The AFC south presents itself with a peculiar situation, where every team is in first place, or for those glass half empty people, they're all in last. One of those teams no one can figure out is the Jaguars, who have been embarrassed by the Eagles, yet beat the Colts. With a stacked AFC South, the Jags have to be pleased to be at this position after five games. However, when the dust settles, I still believe this team will end up looking up at their division rivals and show this start to be a mirage.
Houston Texans
6 of 22
This team probably should have fit into the "meeting expectations" category, since many felt they'd play around a 10-6 level. But after the beat down they delivered to the Colts in Week 1, and their comeback "franchise defining" win over the Redskins the following week, many had put the Texans on a new pedestal as a Super Bowl contender.
Flash forward three weeks and two beatings at home to the hands of the Cowboys and Giants, the Texans are now 3-2 and stuck in the thick of things in the AFC South.
With Andre Johnson recovering and a team full of talent, I believe the Texans are different from their past where they'd meddle around an 8-8 record. This is a team that should be able to fight its way to a playoff spot.
Indianapolis Colts
7 of 22
You have to wonder if not even Peyton Manning and the Colts are immune to the recent history that Super Bowl losing teams struggle. This has just been a very odd season for the Colts in which they look like world beaters against the Giants, look like the lesser team in a win against the Broncos, and look very human in a loss to the Jaguars. With a rushing offense that is one of the NFL's worst, the struggles of Pierre Garcon and a defense not playing to its usual capability, there has to be some concern with the Colts right now, who at this moment sit third in their division.
While they're probably better than their record indicates, perhaps this is finally the season we see Manning and the Colts watching the playoffs instead of succeeding in them.
San Diego Chargers
8 of 22
To me, there is no team that best exemplifies this article of who is as good or bad as they appear right now. The Chargers have limped out of the gates with a 2-3 record, two of those losses on the road to division foes Kansas City and Oakland.
By all account's this a team that is struggling mightily, unable to make up for the loss of Vincent Jackson who is still off the team due to a nasty contract holdout.
However, this is not unfamiliar territory for the Chargers, who have a tendency to start slow, only to rip through the second half of their schedule. Assuming they get themselves in gear, the Bolts have one of the NFL"s easier schedules and should be back to contending for the AFC West crown.
Kansas City Chiefs
9 of 22
Talk about a team that shocked the NFL world.
Most people would have laughed in your face a month ago if you said the Chiefs would win the AFC West. However, four games into their season, they're 3-1, have beaten the Chargers, and proved to the NFL world they can compete with the best despite their close defeat at Indianapolis last week. With a two game lead on the entire division, a young hungry roster and a manageable schedule, it appears this team could compete for the division all season long.
Dallas Cowboys
10 of 22
As much of a surprise the Chiefs have been, so to have the Cowboys, but for all the wrong reasons. The talk for months was if the Cowboys would be the first team to host a Super Bowl. Now, after starting 1-3, the question is if they can merely get out of last place. The Cowboys have the talent to be a Super Bowl contender, but seem to find a way to lose every week. With a game coming up against the equally disappointing Vikings, they must win or their season may be over before November.
Washington Redskins
11 of 22
With all of the pre-season controversy with Albert Haynesworth, many people feared the worst for this franchise. After all, in addition to his antics, there was a new coach, a new quarterback and a football team that was 4-12 a year ago. However, after a 2-0 start in their division and a solid win over the Green Bay Packers, it's no longer inconceivable this team could fight for a playoff spot. Not bad for a team many thought would flop.
Green Bay Packers
12 of 22
Is it a shock the Packers are 3-2? Perhaps it's not the biggest surprise of the NFL season. But with nearly one-third of their most skilled players injured, there is all of a sudden a lot of concern in Green Bay for a team that just three weeks ago, most considered the NFC favorite.
While their talent is that of a 12-4 team, the injuries sustained to players like Ryan Grant, JerMichael Finley, Nick Barnett and Clay Matthews Jr and now the concussion to Aaron Rodgers all of a sudden make their playoff future a bit more murky.
If this team can get healthy and keep its head above water by the time we hit Thanksgiving, then we should see this team is much better than their current record indicates.
Chicago Bears
13 of 22
After watching this team struggle and look lost en route to an 0-4 preseason record, there were absolutely no expectations for this club. Having missed the postseason the past three years and no one sure of the chemistry between Jay Cutler and Mike Martz, most people believed this team was more likely to finish last than first.
While the Bears haven't looked all that impressive and have benefited from NFL rules that are now due to change (Week One against the Lions), the fact is the team is 4-1. Their schedule also makes it look more than possible they could start 7-1. However, before fans start to make plans for the playoffs, the Bears will have one of the harder eight game stretches I've ever seen.
The Bears will have to play Miami, New York Jets, New England, Green Bay, Detroit, Philadelphia and two games against Minnesota to close out their schedule. Because of this, the Bears probably are not as good as their current record indicates.
Minnesota Vikings
14 of 22
Is there any team more surprisingly bad as the 1-3 Minnesota Vikings? Despite having an offense many fantasy team owners would die to have, the Vikings have limped out of the gates to a 1-3 record and sit two games out of first with a 29th ranked offense. While they did trade for Randy Moss, the offense is still struggling due in part to the inconsistency of Brett Favre, who already has thrown as many interceptions as he did in all of 2009. Are they really as bad as their 1-3 record? Probably not.
But when you see how difficult their schedule is, you begin to realize they're digging themselves into a hole they may not be able to get out of. A game between them and the Cowboys looks like it could essentially be a playoff game in just Week Six.
Atlanta Falcons
15 of 22
When the season started, many people believed the Falcons would compete for a playoff spot. However, few could have believed that after five weeks, they'd be the odds on favorite to be the first seed come playoff time.
At 4-1, the Falcons have already defeated their biggest rival the Saints on the road, and came very close to starting this season 5-0, narrowly losing to Pittsburgh at Week One. The team is on a roll right now as it travels to Philadelphia in a potential playoff preview.
It's hard to doubt that this team is for real as they've had a good mix of strong defense, timely offense and some good fortune. With arguably their hardest two games already out of the way, the Falcons could very well be inviting opponents to their home come January.
Tampa Bay Bucaneers
16 of 22
Thus far, there may be no bigger surprise than the Bucs, who many believed could "compete" for the first overall pick in the draft. Despite getting hammered by the Steelers, the Bucs got a great road win last week at Cincinnati and are in the playoff picture at 3-1. Will the Bucs stay there?
Considering their wins have all come against teams under. 500, including two of the worst in the Browns and Panthers, one has to believe the bubble will burst for the young Bucs, probably starting this week with a game against an very angry Saints squad.
New Orleans Saints
17 of 22
When it comes to the Saints, they must feel a bit fortunate that no one is talking about them as the leagues most disappointing team thus far, since others like the Cowboys and Vikings and 49'ers are taking that claim. However, the Saints have looked like a shell of their former selves, even before the injury to versatile running back Reggie Bush.
Their offense has merely been middle of the road, and their defense which so often relies on turnovers has not been getting the job done in recent weeks. A loss to the Falcons was understandable, considering they were a 29-yard field goal away from victory. But losing to a Cardinals team featuring the first start of an undrafted rookie sounded off some alarms in New Orleans.
While they have struggled mightily, this is a team that should it find its bearings, could still very well win an NFC that thus far has no dominant teams.
Carolina Panthers
18 of 22
Most people anticipated the Panthers would struggle this year with uncertainties at quarterback as well as the departure of Julius Peppers. But did people expect this sort of epic collapse? In the defense of the franchise, last week's game against the Bears featured a rookie quarterback in Jimmy Clausen and two rookie receivers with the injury to Steve Smith. But at 0-5, the Panthers are making the claim as the worst team in football. That's not good news for John Fox, who has a seat getting hotter by the minute.
Arizona Cardinals
19 of 22
When a team loses a Hall of Fame quarterback, a pro bowl receiver, the captain of its defense, and a starting safety, you usually would anticipate that team to collapse. For two games, that is exactly what appeared to be the fate of the Cardinals. However, despite the fact they have one of the worst point differentials in the league, the Cards are 3-2, having just beaten the defending champions with Max Hall, the undrafted rookie making his first start.
While the Cardinals may very well be the worst team in a host of other divisions (NFC East, North: AFC North, South, West), they have the good fortune of playing in quite possibly the worst division in NFL history. For that reason, there's reason to believe their surprising start could somehow translate into a division win.
St. Louis Rams
20 of 22
Another one of the pleasant surprises in the league this year, though they were just humbled against the previously winless Lions last week, and just lost a receiver in Mark Clayton who was having a breakout season.
Still, at 2-3, the Rams have already bested their win total of last year, and Sam Bradford looks like the real deal. Like other teams in this division, you cannot count them out. However, with another season ending injury to a No.1 wideout, it will be tough to see the Rams being able to win more than five or six games this year when all is said and done.
San Francisco 49'ers
21 of 22
Welcome to perhaps the most perplexing team in the NFL. With a team that had gone 13-12 under coach Mike Singletary, a weak division, and several years of strong drafts, 2010 looked like the perfect time for this franchise to break out of its eight year playoff drought. But this is why you play the games as they say. Despite competing tooth and nail with some of the better teams in the NFC (New Orleans, Atlanta, Philadelphia), the Niners have started this season 0-5.
When you see the team play on all cylinders, you ask yourself how this could possibly happen. But far too many times, the team has thrown the game away and thus, stands as one of only three winless teams left.
Sitting three games out of first, it usually would be a death sentence to start so dreadfully. However, with the NFC West being so weak, the 49'ers could win this coming week and only be two games out of first with five divisional games left. With a soft schedule the rest of the way, there is still hope the 49'ers could turn their season around.
After all, if there were ever a division where 7-9, or even 6-10 could be the "winner" this years NFC West could be it.
NFL Playoff Projections
22 of 22
After five weeks, this is how I would see the playoffs ultimately breaking down.
AFC
1) Ravens
2) Jets
3) Colts
4) Chargers
5) Steelers
6) Texans
Near misses: Chiefs, Pats, Titans.
NFC
1) Falcons
2) Packers
3) Eagles
4) Cardinals
5) Saints
6) Giants
Near misses: Bears, Redskins, Vikings
As always, your feedback is more than welcome!
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")