NFL Week Six Picks: Breaking Down the Lines For Every Game
For all the bluster in the media about the lack of "excellence" in today's NFL, Sunday and Monday did not disappoint.
Week Six of the NFL season features a couple of great divisional matchups, a few intriguing inter-conference games and huge games in Minnesota, Denver, Houston, Washington and New England.
Inside this slideshow, we break down the lines set for each game and offer a prediction on the schedule.
San Diego (2-3) at St. Louis (2-3)
1 of 14
Line: Rams +8.5
Over-Under: 45
The Chargers are 0-3 on the road this year, so it is surprising that they would be such considerable favorites against a much-improved Rams team. Still, each of those losses are by a touchdown, so Vegas must have taken that into consideration.
The Rams really struggled to put points up last week against Detroit. Without Mark Clayton for the rest of the season, that should continue.
San Diego's offense will build a big lead early; it's up to the defense to keep it a big lead.
Prediction
Take the over, but don't expect the Rams to close this one out by more than a touchdown.
Houston (3-2) at Kansas City (3-1)
2 of 14
Line: Texans -5
Over-Under: 44
The Chiefs defense did a great job limiting Peyton Manning's options last week. He was under pressure and didn't have that many windows through which to throw the ball. The injuries to Joseph Addai and Donald Brown only made the Colts even more one-dimensional.
The Texans will roll out an entirely different approach for Kansas City this week. They will pound Arian Foster as much as possible and remain patient in trying to push the ball down field with Andre Johnson.
That will lead to a much different outcome than the Chiefs defense experienced last week. And since the Texans defense faces a far less potent passing attack than they did last week against the Giants, the Chiefs will be luck to score nine points this week.
Prediction
Houston will look a lot better this week at home than they have in their last two NFC East matchups at Reliant Stadium. Give the points to KC and go with the over.
Baltimore (4-1) at New England (3-1)
3 of 14
Line: New England -3
Over-Under: 44.5
The Patriots were smart to trade away Randy Moss during the bye week. Brandon Tate has another week to ease into his bigger role, and with the addition of Deion Branch, New England should not concern Bill Belichick and Tom Brady too much.
A visit from the Ravens defense, however, is a concern. The Pats have been very good at protecting Brady (just five sacks allowed), so they should hold the pass rush at bay. It's the Ravens secondary that could lead to turnovers-turned-touchdown.
Even without Ed Reed, who'll miss one more week, the pass defense ranks second in the NFL. If they start creating more turnovers, they might be unstoppable.
Prediction
With the road team getting the standard three points, this one should be very close. The Pats will cover, but they'll both fall way short of the over.
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New Orleans (3-2) at Tampa Bay (3-1)
4 of 14
Line: Tampa Bay +5
Over-Under: 44.5
The Saints aren't looking like the defending Super Bowl champs; or maybe they are, considering the fact that, historically, Super Bowl winners struggle the following season.
And although New Orleans has not played particularly great on the road this season, a trip to Tampa Bay might be the right cure. The Bucs run defense has been atrocious this season and ranks third worst in the league.
They may be down to their third and fourth option at running back with Ladell Betts and Chris Ivory, but against Tampa they should find holes to run. That will open the door for Drew Brees to complete a ton of passes to his many receivers.
Prediction
The Bucs fall back down to earth after their surprising win and more surprising 3-1 start. The Saints cruise by more than two touchdowns and blow past the over.
Atlanta (4-1) at Philadelphia (3-2)
5 of 14
Line: Philadelphia -1
Over-Under: 44
The Falcons, winners of four in a row, are currently the steadiest team in the NFC. After starting slow against Cleveland, they made just enough plays to safely put the Browns away.
This week, they face another road game at a tough venue.
For both teams, Michael Turner's running will be the key factor. The Falcons are a much more efficient team when Matt Ryan doesn't have to throw the ball more than 25 times a game.
And since the Eagles defense is allowing 125 yards per game on the ground, that should be Philadelphia's biggest concern this week. With Kevin Kolb settling in and LeSean McCoy ignoring his injured ribs, the Eagles can hang in a shootout.
Prediction
Lots of points in this close one so take the over. The Eagles pull out a win by by a field goal and remain tied atop the NFC East.
New York Giants (3-2) at Detroit (1-4)
6 of 14
Line: Detroit +10
Over-Under: 44.5
Following a string of near-victories, the winless Lions finally proved they can win last week, defeating the Rams 44-6. This week, they host a much better team in the Giants.
Via the pass rush, New York's front four will make Sam Bradford's day miserable. And because they won't have to blitz that much, the Giants zone coverage will really confuse the rookie.
Eli Manning now has a pair of excellent receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith, but Ahmad Bradshaw will carry the load against the Rams marginal defense.
Prediction
Giants cover but don't score enough on their end to go over the 45 points.
Seattle (2-2) at Chicago (4-1)
7 of 14
Line: Chicago -6.5
Over-Under: 40
The up-and-down Bears rediscovered their offense last week against Carolina. On the surface, that isn't much to be excited about. But considering they did it without Jay Cutler, they deserve to be near-touchdown favorites. Should Cutler return this week, expect that to rise.
Seattle's run defense is second best in the league, but that number is terribly misleading. Because they are giving up more than 300 yards per game in the air, why would anyone bother running on them? If Todd Collins is under center for Chicago we'll have our answer.
Marshawn Lynch was a nice pick up for the Seahawks; their pitiful running game should do slightly better this week.
Prediction
The Bears can't cover in a low-scoring effort but gain the win. Take the under.
Miami (2-2) at Green Bay (3-2)
8 of 14
Line: Green Bay -6.5
Over-Under: Off
Miami catches a huge break this week. When the schedule came out in the spring, a loss in their trip to Lambeau Field was a safe bet for the Fins.
The Packers' rash of injuries levels the playing field quite a bit. If Clay Matthews can't go for the Packers, Chad Henne will have more time to hook up with Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess.
And should Aaron Rodgers miss this week's game, the limited options for Matt Flynn will greatly reduce Green Bay's scoring opportunities. Jermichael Finley was a key part of that offense.
Prediction
Injuries make this one hard to guess, but the Dolphins already have a big-time road win against a tough NFC North opponent. Miami pulls out a close win.
Cleveland (1-3) at Pittsburgh (3-1)
9 of 14
Line: Pittsburgh -14
Over-Under: 37.5
Ben Roethlisberger's return (obviously) will completely redefine the Steeler offense. If Rashard Mendenhall managed to average better than 100 yards per game with Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon under center, he should be even better with the Big Ben at the helm.
The Browns offensive woes will only get worse this week if Colt McCoy has to see significant action against Pittsburgh. The Steelers will blitz repeatedly against either the rookie McCoy or the immobile Jake Delhomme, so the Browns will suffer multiple turnovers.
Prediction
The Steelers cover, but don't take the over.
New York Jets (4-1) at Denver (2-3)
10 of 14
Line: Broncos +3.5
Over-Under: 40
Kyle Orton and the Denver passing game stood up fairly well on the road last week against the Ravens. With the Jets coming to town, it doesn't really matter that the Broncos cannot run the ball effectively: They wouldn't be able to do so against New York anyway.
The big plays that the Jets defense surrendered to Minnesota in the Monday night win were mostly the product of great individual plays and not really defensive breakdowns. Still, they cannot afford another three-touchdown final 17 minutes to the game like they did against the Vikings.
Prediction
The Broncos pass-happy approach yields a surprising win. Go with the over.
Oakland (2-3) at San Francisco (0-5)
11 of 14
Line: Oakland +6.5
Over-Under: 40.5
The most stunning line of all the games in Week Six. The Raiders, who defeated San Diego last week, are touchdown underdogs to the winless 49ers?
San Francisco showed some life last week late against Philadelphia, but Alex Smith made some too early mistakes to overcome.
Although the Raiders pass defense let Philip Rivers throw for over 400 yards last week, if they find a way to contain tight end Vernon Davis, the 49ers won't total half that much.
Prediction
The Raiders hammer another nail in Mike Singletary's coffin. Together, the offenses are poor enough to keep the score under 41.
Dallas (1-3) at Minnesota (1-3)
12 of 14
Line: Vikings +2.5
Over-Under: 46
Just because these two teams' playoff hopes are on life support doesn't mean that it won't be an exciting and intriguing matchup.
Brett Favre came to life against the Jets, which let Adrian Peterson sneak in a few long runs. As we saw last night, Randy Moss's addition suggests that Percy Harvin will break out of his mini-slump. And considering how well the Vikings defense has played all year, the should match up well with the Cowboys.
Once again, for Dallas it all falls on Tony Romo's shoulders. With the running game under-producing, Romo will need to continue to get the ball to Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Roy Williams and Jason Witten. Although the Cowboys are far behind in the division, he has proven he can do that.
Prediction
In this desperate "whose season is essentially over with a loss bowl," the Vikings pull out a win via an overtime field goal, pushing far beyond the over.
Indianapolis (3-2) at Washington (3-2)
13 of 14
Line: Washington +3
Over-Under: 43.5
Having to turn to your third-string running back is never good, but Michael Hart is a nice replacement should the injuries to Joseph Addai and Donald Brown keep them out this week. Peyton Manning's sub-par performance against Kansas City was a total anomaly, so the Colts will be able to score touchdowns this week.
For the Redskins a similar running back health issue--Clinton Portis' injury--is also cause for concern. But Donovan McNabb has been clutch in the fourth quarter of close games. Sunday night will be another nail-biter.
And if the Redskins defense puts the type of pressure on Manning that they put late in last week's game against the Packers and Aaron Rodgers, they should force turnovers.
Prediction
Together, the two grizzly veteran quarterbacks easily break 44 points but McNabb's Redskins grab another surprising win.
Tennesse (3-2) at Jacksonville (3-2)
14 of 14
Line: Jaguars +3.5
Over-Under: 44.5
There is a very good chance that the winner of this game will grab sole possession of the lead in the AFC South.
David Garrard has been unbelievably accurate this season and that has sparked the Jaguars surprising start. With his speed, Maurice Jones-Drew and a blossoming Marcedes Lewis, they might feature the best three-headed red zone/goalline threat in the entire NFL.
The format for the Titans is fairly similar. With Vince Young showing steady improvement in the past three weeks, Chris Johnson being Chris Johnson and the wide receivers starting to step up, Tennessee has been in contention in the fourth quarter each week.
Whichever team forces more turnovers out of these two methodical offense will win this one.
Prediction
The Jaguars win a great defensive battle as the two teams fall well short of 45 combined points.
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