College Football Bowl Projections: Alabama’s Out, So Who’s In Title Game
We're getting to the best part of the college football season and it's time for bowl projections.
The BCS rankings come out next week and we've seen enough of everyone to the point where we can get a feel for where each team is going to end up this winter. The bowl season is one of the best times of the sports calendar even if there are a ton of them.
Inside I break down a good selection of the bowls and each of the teams in each projected matchup. Any thoughts, leave them in the comments as always.
Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl: Kansas State vs. Arizona
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Why Kansas State Is Here
The Wildcats are currently third in the Big 12 North and are 4-1 on the season. A big win against UCLA to start the season has propelled Kansas State through its schedule.
Why Arizona Is Here
The Wildcats are fourth in the Pac 10 and have a big win against Iowa to their credit. Arizona's only blemish was a tough two-point loss to Oregon State.
How It Could Change
Arizona still has to play Stanford and Oregon and Kansas State has Oklahoma State, Texas, and Missouri. Not an easy slate by any means.
Final Score
Arizona 35, Kansas State 24
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Oregon State
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Why Georgia Tech Is Here
Georgia Tech is a running team, plain and simple and the Yellow Jackets have used it with great success, and are ranked third in the nation in rushing. Losses to Kansas and NC State have really hurt Georgia Tech's resume and has the Yellow Jackets down in the projections.
Why Oregon State Is Here
Losses to Boise State and TCU were tough losses and hurt the Beavers resume but a win over Arizona put Oregon State right back in the thick of things in terms of bowls. Wins against Stanford and Oregon could put the Beavers in a big time bowl game by the end of the year.
How It Could Change
Georgia Tech could continue to stumble and lose to Virginia Tech and Miami while Oregon State could surge and rise in the projections with some big time wins against ranked teams. Don't sleep on the Beavers.
Final Score
Oregon State 45, Georgia Tech 16
Insight Bowl: Northwestern vs. Texas
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Why Northwestern Is Here
Northwestern's Cinderella run finally came to an end with a close loss against Purdue, knocking the Wildcats out of the rankings. Northwestern hadn't really played anyone until then and soon the Wildcats will be taking on the top teams in the Big Ten.
Why Texas Is Here
The Longhorns are struggling without Colt McCoy and two straight losses has Texas out of the rankings. Now the Longhorns take on Nebraska and they could be looking at three straight losses and a whole world of trouble in terms of the season.
How it Could Change
Both teams are going to be tested again and there's a good chance that a few more losses could be added to those records as the teams fall down the bowl projections, something Texas fans won't be used to.
Final Score
Texas 31, Northwestern 10
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Meineke Car Care Bowl: Miami vs. Connecticut
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Why Miami Is Here
There were high hopes for the Hurricanes coming into this year, but bad losses against Ohio State and Florida State have Miami down here in the bowl projections. Jacory Harris hasn't grown as a quarterback and is still making too many dumb mistakes in the passing game.
Why Connecticut Is Here
Another team that had high hopes has fizzled out after an opening day loss against Michigan. Losses to Temple and Rutgers didn't help either but the Big East is so weak that a team like UConn is slated for a bowl. That, and there are too many bowl games.
How It Could Change
Miami doesn't face any teams ranked in the top 25 and winning out could put the Hurricanes in a spot to shoot up the projections and reach a better bowl as teams lose around them. UConn could also continue to struggle and drop out of the bowls all together.
Final Score
Miami 38, Connecticut 17
Konica Minolta Gator Bowl: Michigan vs. Florida
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Why Michigan Is Here
Michigan only has one loss and that came on Saturday against rival Michigan State. Denard Robinson has put new life into the Wolverines, who have slumped the past few seasons. Michigan still has plenty of tough games to go and we'll see how the Wolverines respond to the loss.
Why Florida Is Here
The Gators are slumping, having lost two in a row, but before then Florida was hanging in there and making due without Tim Tebow but the youth and inexperience is starting to show in the Gators' lineup. Urban Meyer has done a good job of coaching this team up and they'll be dangerous going forward.
How It Could Change
Michigan will face some tough defenses and if Denard Robinson plays like he did against the Spartans, the wheels could fall off of the Wolverines' season. Meanwhile Florida needs to recover or the Gators will find themselves in a similar spot as Michigan.
Final Score
Florida 24, Michigan 20
AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic: Oklahoma State vs. Auburn
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Why Oklahoma State Is Here
The Cowboys are firing on all cylinders but really haven't played many people yet but will be tested as they get into the thick of their Big 12 schedule. Oklahoma State has been explosive on offense and is second in the nation in points scored.
Why Auburn Is Here
The Tigers are here, but a couple bounces of the ball and Auburn's saddled with a few losses. Good teams win close games and the Tigers have done that all season long. It's been a true test of their character and Auburn has answered that call and responded.
How It Could Change
Oklahoma State will be tested and we'll see how that offense holds up to the test that they'll get from a team like Nebraska down the line. Also, Auburn's luck could very well run out and we'll find ourselves looking at another team in this spot.
Final Score
Auburn 31, Oklahoma State 27
Valero Alamo Bowl: Missouri vs. Stanford
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Why Missouri Is Here
Missouri hasn't really beaten anyone of prominence yet, but when you're undefeated, it's hard to ignore it. The Tigers have plenty of tests coming up in the Big 12 and we'll find out what Missouri is made of sooner rather than later.
Why Stanford Is Here
The Cardinal are 5-1 with a loss on the road to Oregon the only thing keeping Stanford from an undefeated record. Andrew Luck has been sensational for the Cardinal and is a Heisman Trophy contender. Stanford still has tests against Arizona and Oregon State before the season's end.
How It Could Change
As I said, Missouri hasn't been tested and could be exposed as a team playing a bit over its head early in the season, but wins could jump it up the bowl ladder. Meanwhile, Stanford is hoping and praying for two Oregon losses somewhere along the line so it can find itself lined up for the Rose Bowl.
Final Score
Stanford 51, Missouri 30
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas
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Why Virginia Tech Is Here
After two early losses, including an embarrassing loss against James Madison, the Hokies have rebounded and have won four in a row including beating NC State, who was ranked in the top 25 at the time of the meeting. It's not the year Hokies fans had hoped for, but it's not as bad as it looked early on either.
Why Arkansas Is Here
The Razorbacks only have one loss this year and that was to Alabama. Arkansas has Auburn next week and a few other tests down the line as the Razorbacks go forward and in the SEC, every game is a test so there's no cakewalks for Ryan Mallett and company.
How It Could Change
Virginia Tech has proven that it can totally lay an egg on any given Saturday and let a clearly inferior opponent beat them. Arkansas still has more tests to go and in Ryan Mallett will have to step up to keep Arkansas in position for a big bowl game.
Final Score
Arkansas 41, Virginia Tech 27
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin vs. LSU
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Why Wisconsin Is Here
The Badgers have rolled through the early part of the year with only a loss to Michigan State the only blemish on their record. Wisconsin still has to go through the meat of its schedule so nothing is set in stone for the Badgers.
Why LSU Is Here
The Tigers are here on the seat of Les Miles' pants. Miles seemingly does everything wrong during that 60 minutes on Saturday but somehow, someway, LSU walks away with a victory. You can't knock it, but you have to wonder how much longer that type of luck can last.
How It Can Change
LSU still has three games against teams currently ranked in the top 25 and Wisconsin has no cakewalk for the rest of its games. There a lot of room for this matchup to dissolve in the coming weeks.
Final Score
Wisconsin 27, LSU 24
Capital One Bowl: Iowa vs. South Carolina
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Why Iowa Is Here
The Hawkeyes are 4-1 and only have a road loss against Arizona as their only blemish this year. Iowa has a tough stretch coming up against Michigan, Wisconsin, and Michigan State and it will define the Hawkeyes' season.
Why South Carolina Is Here
The Gamecocks' stock is up after beating defending national champion Alabama on Saturday. South Carolina only has one loss and it came against Auburn in a game that South Carolina should have won. The Gamecocks still have a few big games out there that can help their stock or kill it.
How It Could Change
Iowa has a tough stretch starting next week and South Carolina still has a few big games left. A loss will shift the picture and maybe this time next week we're talking about two different teams in this spot.
Final Score
Iowa 24, South Carolina 21
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Michigan State
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Why Oregon Is Here
The Ducks are here because they are undefeated and have been rolling with a high-powered offense this year. Oregon pounded Stanford on national TV and has a bit of an easy stretch before finishing with Arizona and Oregon State, which will determine its fate.
Why Michigan State Is here
The Spartans have been a pleasant surprise this year and are undefeated and coming off of a huge road win against rival Michigan. Michigan State still has to go through Iowa and a couple other conference tests. Could Sparty run the table? It's possible.
How It Could Change
Oregon is in prime position to leap into the national title game, either through the BCS or if Boise State and Ohio State were to lose. In fact, they may already be in line for it when the BCS comes out next week.
Final Score
Oregon 48, Michigan State 24
Discover Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. TCU
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Why Florida State Is Here
The Seminoles have rolled this year outside of a blowout loss against Oklahoma. Florida State also just went into Miami and beat the Hurricanes into the dirt on national TV, which always helps your bowl credentials.
Why TCU Is Here
The other BCS buster is here because the Horned Frogs are undefeated and have a big win against Oregon State to their credit. TCU doesn't have a major test left and should run the table and be in position for a BCS bowl.
How It Could Change
It could change if Florida State were to fall in the ACC Championship game or not make it because of a loss against Florida in the last week of the season.
Final Score
TCU 38, Florida State 24
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. West Virginia
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Why Nebraska Is Here
Nebraska has run up and down the field on its opponents and the Cornhuskers keep them from scoring with a stingy defense that has been brutal for opposing offenses. Nebraska has rolled so far his year.
Why West Virginia Is Here
The Mountaineers are the best team in the Big East, whatever that counts for, and are lined up in prime position to head to a bowl game with the automatic bid for the conference champion. A tough loss to LSU is the only blemish on their record.
How This Could Change
This could change if Nebraska beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game and that is good enough to vault the Cornhuskers into the title game. A West Virginia stumble could also break this matchup apart.
Final Score
Nebraska 45, West Virginia 28
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
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Why Alabama Is Here
The Crimson Tide had impressive wins against Penn State, Arkansas, and Florida this year before falling to South Carolina this weekend. It still keeps Alabama in a position to win the SEC.
Why Oklahoma Is Here
Oklahoma is undefeated this year even without Sam Bradford and have beaten Florida State and Air Force, which has turned out to be an impressive feat. The Sooners are rolling right now.
Why This Could Change
It could change if Alabama finishing the year with one-loss or Oklahoma running the table could hop a one-loss Boise State team or if Oregon were to fall at some point.
Final Score
Alabama 31, Oklahoma 20
BCS National Championship Game: Ohio State vs. Boise State
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Why Ohio State Is Here
Ohio State is undefeated and has a big win over Miami to its credit this season. The Buckeyes have rolled through the early part of their schedule with a big test against Wisconsin looming.
Why Boise State Is Here
Two big wins against Virginia Tech and Oregon State have put Boise State in a perfect spot to run the table and finish undefeated. The win over the Beavers looks better and better each week.
How It Could Change
It could change if either team falls or if the teams below Boise State do enough to hurt the Broncos in the BCS standings. The computers could really hurt Boise State down the line.
Final Score
Ohio State 31, Boise State 28
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