NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 5: Kansas City Chiefs Over Indianapolis Colts

Still too early in the season to locate the teams that have truly changed their fortunes, the NFL lines haven't really adjusted to this year's new pecking order.

With teams like the Chiefs (3-0) and Bucs (2-1) jumping to surprising starts, there are opportunities to pick hot starters plus a load of points against some potential bad teams (Bengals, maybe?)

So here are some games with lines that maybe aren't where they should be, in which you should definitely pick the so-called "underdog."

Also, I made picks for all of this week's games and will for the remainder of the season.

So I'll keep track of my record and you can see if I can put my money where my mouth is.

Kansas City Chiefs (+7.5) over Indianapolis Colts

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ATLANTA - AUGUST 13: Jamaal Charles #25 of the Kansas City Chiefs against the Atlanta Falcons at Georgia Dome on August 13, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Kansas City Chiefs (+7.5) over Indianapolis Colts

A 3-0 team plus more than a touchdown at a 2-2 team?

Who did you think I was going to pick?

Obviously, this doesn’t tell the whole story, that the undefeated team is the Chiefs, and they are visiting a team coming off a Super Bowl appearance, but this is a great matchup for the Chiefs.

The Colts’ porous run defense will be lit up by the Chiefs’ two-headed monster of Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, allowing the Chiefs to keep Manning and Co. off the field as long as possible.

They might not be able to stop Manning, but they can control the ball on offense and if their much-improved defense can contain Peyton just a little bit, they should do enough to at least cover, if not win outright.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) over Cincinnati Bengals

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CHARLOTTE, NC - SEPTEMBER 19: Josh Freeman #5 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throws a pass against the Carolina Panthers during their game at Bank of America Stadium on September 19, 2010 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) over Cincinnati Bengals

Carson Palmer has looked absolutely awful this year despite lofty passing totals in garbage time against New England and in another loss against the Browns, and he won’t fare any better against the NFL’s 10th ranked pass defense.

The Bucs might not have enough success on the ground to beat the Bengals outright, but they should have mild success passing with the ball with the now-confident and poised Josh Freeman.

Look for this to be a close game, with the Bucs certainly covering the seven points.

New York Giants (+3) over Houston Texans

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EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - OCTOBER 03: Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants passes the ball against the Chicago Bears at New Meadowlands Stadium on October 3, 2010 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images)

New York Giants (+3) over Houston Texans

The Giants have great yardage numbers across the board (except for a mediocre run defense), but sit at 2-2 because of a wild case of the turnovers.

Look for them to buck their turnover trend this week against the Texans and do just enough to beat a pretty good team.

Keep an eye on the injuries of Ahmad Bradshaw and Andre Johnson, though, because if one or both are out, it will impact the game tremendously.

Washington Redskins (+3) over Green Bay Packers

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PHILADELPHIA - OCTOBER 03: Ryan Torain #46 of the Washington Redskins runs the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles on October 3, 2010 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Redskins defeated the Eagles 17-12. (Photo by Jim McIsaa

Washington Redskins (+3) over Green Bay Packers

The Redskins have been an enigma this season, losing to the Rams but beating the Eagles and Cowboys.

But they found their long-lost rushing attack last week, and despite the loss of the overrated Clinton Portis, they should have success against the Packers on the ground.

Look for the powerful, slashing  Ryan Torain to wear down a Packers defense that was already vulnerable against the run before losing starting MLB Nick Barnett.

Redskins cover, but Rodgers does enough against their porous secondary to eke out the win.

The Rest of the Picks

Rick Stewart/Getty Images

ORCHARD PARK, NY - OCTOBER 03: Mark Sanchez #6 of the New York Jets lines up behind center Nick Mangold #74 against the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium on October 3, 2010 in Orchard Park, New York. The Jets won 38-14. (Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty I

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) over Buffalo Bills

Detroit Lions (-3) over St. Louis Rams

Atlanta Falcons (-3) over Cleveland Browns

 Dallas Cowboys (-7) over Tennessee Titans

New Orleans Saints (-7) over Arizona Cardinals

San Diego Chargers (-6.5) over Oakland Raiders

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

New York Jets (-4) over Minnesota Vikings

Matt Rudnitsky is a student at the University of Michigan and a writing intern at Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter at https://twitter.com/Mattrud