Were The Crazy ESPN The Magazine Predictions So Crazy After All?

So I'm reading my ESPN the Magazine in August when I open up this page that shows all sorts of charts and graphics talking about how an ESPN Simulator was able to predict what was going to happen in this NFL season.  Obviously simulators usually are helpful in making fairly accurate predictions right?  And this was ESPN, the king of sports, using a simulator that played out the 2010 season 10,000 times!  

However after taking a look at its results, I laughed at the incompetence of the magazine, and asked myself how a magazine of their prestige would allow something that said the Buccaneers and Cowboys were on equal footing amongst other crazy prognostications.

Flash forward six weeks to week five of the season, and I have to ask myself, were they really that crazy after all?   For those of you who did not read the magazine article, here is a look at ten predictions, some of which initially looked to be borderline insane, that could inconceivably come true.

1) The Kansas City Chiefs Win The AFC West

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KANSAS CITY, MO - SEPTEMBER 26: Thomas Jones #20 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs the ball against the San Francisco 49ers at Arrowhead Stadium on September 26, 2010 in Kansas City, Missouri. The Chiefs won 31-10. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

We'll start this out with a bang.   When reading the AFC West results, the simulator said the Chiefs would win on a tie breaker over the Chargers, winning the division with a 9-7 record.  For a team that had turned into a bottom feeder with no real hope in sight, I thought this was crazy talk to print that the Chiefs of all teams would dethrone the Chargers.   

Yet here we are with the Chiefs sitting as the last unbeaten team left in the NFL, and the Chargers sitting two games back with a less than impressive 2-2 start, having lost to K.C. in week one of the season.

2) The Dallas Cowboys Finish Last in The NFC East

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HOUSTON - SEPTEMBER 26: Quarterback Tony Romo #9 of the Dallas Cowboys makes an adjustment at the line of scrimmage against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium on September 26, 2010 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

Going into the season, most people talked about how strong the Cowboys were and how they were poised to become the first team to host a Super Bowl.   After all, they looked to be the only team that was solid on both sides of the ball in their division.  However, following their bye week, the Cowboys indeed are in last place.  

The Magazine predicted that Philly would win the division, with the Redskins second and Giants third, all with 9-7 records with the Cowboys in last at 8-8.  Having watched all four teams play this year, would it be a shock to see this division come down to something this close come January? 

3) The St. Louis Rams Finish 3rd In The NFC West

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ST. LOUIS - OCTOBER 03: Sam Bradford #8 of the St. Louis Rams passes the ball in the first half against the Seattle Seahawks on October 3, 2010 at Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

The NFC West predictions are ones I took a particular double take at, and will be referenced again in this article.    The Rams, a team that has won all of three games the past two years, were predicted to finish 3rd with a 6-10 record.  Obviously that had to be silly talk with a rookie quarterback, no named receivers and a rebuilding defense.  Right?   Well so far the Rams are 2-2 and have one of the easier schedules in football.  With games still coming against teams like the Lions, Bucs and Browns, the Rams could easily exceed their six win total.

So as I took another look at their chart, the Rams were predicted to finish third.  Who then was predicted to finish last?

4) The 49'ers Finish Last In The NFC West

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OAKLAND, CA - AUGUST 28: Patrick Willis #52 of the San Francisco 49ers sacks Jason Campbell #8 of the Oakland Raiders during an NFL preseason game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on August 28, 2010 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Gett

This one about made me spit my drink out when I read it.  Surely, the magazine must have printed out its simulation incorrectly, saying the 49'ers, who were on paper the far superior team to any other in their division, to be a cellar dweller.

With players like Patrick Willis, Frank Gore and Vernon Davis, as well as the emergence of Alex Smith, this was supposed to be the time that the 49'ers got themselves back into the postseason or the first time in eight years.  Not only that, with such an easy division, a bye week wasn't out of the question.

Yet here we are 1/4 through the season, and the 49'ers stand as just one of four teams with no wins, with two heart breaking losses to the Saints and Falcons.   What happened to a team that had so much promise coming in, no one quite knows. 

But this is one case in particular, that the ESPN simulator looks like Albert Einstein thus far. 

5) The Colts Win Less Than 12 Games

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JACKSONVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 03: Quarterback Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts is sacked by Lineman Jeremy Mincey #94 of the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field on October 3, 2010 in Jacksonville, Florida. The Jaguars won 31-28. (Photo by Ma

In the history of the NFL, there has been perhaps no team that has been so consistent in the regular season as the Colts.  There is a phrase that "the only certainties in life are death and taxes."  Since Peyton Manning has come into the league, a third certainty in life has been the Colts winning 12 games.

However the Colts are in a very unfamiliar position right now, sitting in last place in the AFC South.  This is what happens though when you start with an 0-2 record against your own division.   With the roughest part of their schedule still coming, the question now isn't if the Colts can win 12 games, it's if they can still win their own division. 

The Chicago Bears Make The Playoffs

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CHICAGO - SEPTEMBER 12: Tommie Harris #91 and Julius Peppers #90 of the Chicago Bears await the start of play against the Detroit Lions during the NFL season opening game at Soldier Field on September 12, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the

Being a Bears fan, I got a chuckle seeing this one.  The Bears actually make the postseason as a Wild Card?  Ha!  Yet despite the horrid play they displayed this past Sunday against the Giants, the Bears sit atop the NFC with a 3-1 record with a slew of very winnable games coming.  (@Carolina, Seattle, Washington, @Buffalo)

While their second half schedule is the possibly the most brutal in the NFL, a nine or ten win season is all of a sudden not out of the question for a team many felt would fight with the Lions as the NFC North's worst team. 

7) The Vikings Miss The Playoffs

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MINNEAPOLIS - SEPTEMBER 19: Quarterback Brett Favre #4 of the Minnesota Vikings watches from the sidelines during the first half of the game against the Miami Dolphins on September 19, 2010 at Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Pho

Want to know how the simulator predicted the Bears to get in?  It's because they have the Vikings losing a tiebreaker to them and ultimately missing the postseason.  This also seemed like a crazy choice, given that the Vikings were on the brink of being in the Super Bowl last year.  With virtually the same team returning why wouldn't they make the postseason again?

Yet again, the simulator looks correct thus far with a Viking team that is 1-2 and an incredibly hard schedule left to play.  How desperate is this team?  They just brought back in Randy Moss, whom they couldn't wait to see leave only several years ago. 

The Buccaneers Finsh 8-8

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TAMPA, FL - AUGUST 21: Defensive back Ronde Barber #20 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks at the scoreboard against the Kansas City Chiefs during a preseason game at Raymond James Stadium on August 21, 2010 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Ima

For a team that is rebuilding, there did not seem to be much hope in Tampa Bay.   Their drafts have not been super, their quarterback is unproven, and there didn't seem to be depth at any position.  In the end, they were a trendy pre-season pick to be the worst team in the NFL.  However, after a 2-1 start, there is some hope for the Bucs.  While their 8-8 prediction might be a bit of a reach, the mere fact they are off to a solid start makes it seem at least possible. 

9) The Washington Redskins Make The Playoffs

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PHILADELPHIA - OCTOBER 03: Donovan McNabb #5 of the Washington Redskins meets with Jason Avant #81 of the Philadelphia Eagles after their game on October 3, 2010 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Redskins defeated the Eagles 1

This was another prediction I just couldn't make sense out of.  I know this one might be more of my belief and less the perceived insanity of the ESPN Simulator.  I know there were some that felt the Redskins were a playoff caliber team.  However with only the addition of Donovan McNabb to show for in the off-season, I felt his addition would only win them an additional 2-3 games from last season's 4-12 disaster. 

All bets are off now though with everyone in the NFC East 2-2 except for the 1-2 Cowboys and the NFC as a whole looking consistently inconsistent.  

With important division wins against the Cowboys and at Philadelphia under their belt, perhaps the prediction the Redskins get in isn't so irrational after all.

10) Atlanta Falcons Finish With NFC's Best Record

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NEW ORLEANS - SEPTEMBER 26: Michael Turner #33 of the Atlanta Falcons avoids a tackle by Jonathan Vilma #51 of the New Orleans Saints at the Louisiana Superdome on September 26, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

For a team coming off a 9-7 disapointing season, the Falcons were considered by many to be a playoff contender.  However, predicting that the Falcons would finish with the best record in the conference over teams like the Cowboys, Packers, Vikings and Saints?  Obviously there has to be something wrong with that picture.

However, look at how four weeks of a season can do to change a perspective.  Looking at the conference right now, you'd have to consider the Falcons as the odds on favorite to finish the conference with the first seed.   If you take all the contenders into account, (sorry to all the teams in the NFC West), the Falcons have the best path, with the easiest division and a road victory over their biggest rival and competition, the Saints.

Overal ESPN Playoff Predictions

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GREEN BAY, WI - OCTOBER 03: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers throws a pass against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field on October 3, 2010 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Lions 28-26. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

In the end, here is how the simulator predicted the postseason.

AFC:

1)  Ravens

2)  Colts

3)  Patriots

4)  Chiefs

5)  Jets

6)  Steelers

NFC:

1)  Falcons

2)  Packers

3)  Eagles

4)  Cardinals

5)  Redskins

6)  Bears

Super Bowl:  Ravens over Packers

Where Did The Simulator Go Wrong?

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

NEW ORLEANS - OCTOBER 03: Quarterback Drew Brees #9 of the New Orleans Saints passes against the Carolina Panthers at the Louisiana Superdome on October 3, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

While many of its bold predictions thus far look like they could come true, there are still some that appear to be horribly wrong.

Here are three of the best examples.

1)  The Saints miss the playoffs:  While the defending champions have hardly been impressive in their three wins, they still have a 3-1 record.  Assuming they can regain their 2009 form, the Saints will still be players in the NFC.

2)  The Houston Texans finish last in the AFC South with a 6-10 record:  Given the history of the Texans franchise, it's not a bad bet to believe they'd fall short of expectations.  However, Houston is 3-1 and it doesn't appear likely they'll go 3-9 in their final 12 games.

3)  The Buffalo Bills go 5-11:   If there is any team in the league that could join the 2008 Lions 0-16 futility, it's the Bills.  It's one thing that they have the worst roster in the league.  But when you consider the fact they still have three more AFC East games as well as contests against teams like the Vikings, Bears, Steelers, Bengals and Ravens, it doesn't seem likely they can get to five wins. 

Final Thoughts

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MIAMI - OCTOBER 04: Quarterback Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots throws against the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium on October 4, 2010 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images)

With only 1/4 of the season complete, many of these predictions could prove to be false.  However, reflecting upon the ESPN article, I found it unbelievably striking how correct their simulator was thus far.  The magazine was almost universally panned by journalists and readers like myself.   When you consider how accurate it has been thus far, I felt it was my responsibility to be objective, and write about how so many of us at this point, wrongly concluded that ESPN had lost its mind to publish such rubbish that we perceived it to be.

If we have learned one thing though in this NFL season, it's going to be a wild ride with no single dominant team this year.  Maybe the pre-season favorites will turn it around.  Or maybe we will see teams like the Texans, Chiefs, Rams and Bears playing football deep into January. 

The one unwavering fact in all of this, is that the 2010 season is going to be a thrill ride for all!