NFL Week 5: Steele Ranking System Has Baltimore at No. 1 After Pittsburgh Win

Just what we need, another blowhard who thinks he can give us accurate rankings using some sort of crude rationale and probably a lot of bias, just to make himself feel cool.  I know that’s what I’d say if I saw this.  I’m not even sure I could convince you otherwise.  However, I’ll do my best. 

First, the easy one, the whole point of me starting a ranking system 15 years ago was to remove any and all bias for college football (that’s what they all say).  My favorite team is the St. Louis Rams, so I doubt you're going to see them on this list anytime soon.

I’ve tried to come up with the rationale that every sports announcer I’ve ever heard brings up.  Conference rankings (check), Road vs. Away (check), and who did you play (double-check).  As I said before, I’ve been doing this privately for over 15 years, and every year there have been slight changes to it.  Usually by the end of the season, I see more improvements I can make, and I do that for the following season.  By no stretch is it perfect, but I think it’s getting there.

So what are the specifics?  It starts by generating a ranking for each division.  This is done by generating a win-loss record for each division against the other divisions.  This is modified by determining who those wins are against.  This is mostly because of college football's big time teams tending to play cream puffs to build up their record, so I'm going to use a college football example:  The Big Ten loses some of its power by scheduling lots of MAC Teams.  I then take a ranking of that value.  As of 10/5/10, the divisional rankings are as follows:

1.  AFC North

2.  AFC South

3.  NFC South

4.  AFC East (tied)

4.  AFC West

6.  NFC East

7.  NFC North

8.  NFC West

After determining the division rankings, I generate values that a team would receive for playing another team.  Values are generated for a Home Win, a Home Loss, a Road Win, and a Road Loss.  Each of the values are derived from the Home Win, which is formed by taking the teams place in the division (1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, etc.), inverting it so more points are awarded for beating the better team, and multiplying it by the inversed conference ranking.  For example, currently, the 1^st place team in the 1^st place division is tied between Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  If Denver loses to Baltimore this week, they will earn earned 64 points.  This is because Baltimore is in 1^st place (inversed = 4 multiplied by inversed conference ranking = 8, and multiplied by 2 because it would be on the road, 8 * 4 * 2 = 64). 

Losses are similar though there is no inverting.  So if Denver loses, it will only cause them to lose 1 point (Place in Conference = 1, Conference Rank = 1, 1 * 1 = 1).  A Home win is the same as a road win, except the value is not multiplied by 2, and a Home Loss takes the Road Loss and multiplies it by 2.  

Did you follow all of that?  If not, don’t worry about it, just know that it is under constant improvement, .  I’ll go in reverse order, like a Top Ten list:

10. Kansas City (3-0): BYE; Best Win = @Cleveland; Worst Loss = N/A

9.  Denver (2-2):  Win AT Tennessee; Best Win = @Tennessee; Worst Loss = Indianapolis

6 (Three Way Tie). Dallas (1-2):  BYE; Best Win = @Houston; Worst Loss = Chicago

6. Cincinnati (2-2):  Loss AT Cleveland; Best Win = Baltimore; Worst Loss = @Cleveland

6.  Indianapolis (2-2):  Loss AT Jacksonville; Best Win = @Denver; Worst Loss = Jacksonville

5.  New England (3-1):  Win AT Miami; Best Win = @Miami; Worst Loss = @New York Jets

4.  New York Jets (3-1):  Win AT Buffalo; Best Win = New England; Worst Loss = Baltimore

3.  Atlanta (3-1):  Win vs. San Francisco; Best Win = @New Orleans; Worst Loss = @Pittsburgh

2.  Pittsburgh (3-1):  Loss vs. Baltimore; Best Win = @Tennessee; Worst Loss = Baltimore

1.  Baltimore (3-1):  Win AT Pittsburgh; Best Win = @Pittsburgh; Worst Loss = @Cincinnati

After this week’s round of games, I’ll add some more details such as what they were ranked last week, how far they are behind the team ahead of them, and how many points they got for defeating (or losing) to the team they played against.