B/R Quick Pick Challenge: Texans’ Arian Foster, Other Smart Plays in Week 4
The more I play it, the more I find that the Quick Pick Challenge here on B/R is a great way for fantasy players of all types to come together and prove their fantasy prowess.
It's free to enter, and the grand prize is two tickets to this year’s Super Bowl.
Miss a week? No problem—you’re still eligible to win the weekly prize, which is a jersey of your choice.
Sounds like a no-brainer to me.
But as I’ve recommended this contest to friends and some family members, I’ve heard quite a few people saying “I don’t understand the rules,” or “I don’t know enough about fantasy football.”
I’m here to help, friends. Maybe it'll cost me a jersey one week, but I like a challenge.
Let’s start with the rules. Each week, players will choose a lineup that includes one of each of the following:
- Quarterback
- Running Back
- Wide Receiver
- Tight End
- A Team That Will Win Its Game
The catch is that players only get to choose the player once throughout the season—so picking the right matchup for each player is of significant importance.
The NFL is a somewhat of a crapshoot from week-to-week, but understanding matchups and opportunities is an area that can be used to help make informed decisions throughout the Quick Picks contest here at Bleacher Report.
One major thing to keep in mind with this contest is that the perceived top players may not be the best players to put in your lineup early in the year.
Because we only get to use them once throughout the season, players should consider that there may be better opportunities for the top players as the season goes along.
Although strictly copying my picks will likely not lead you to win this contest, these picks may be a good guideline for visitors who might be wondering what to do at a position or two.
On to the picks!...
PLAY: Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
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It’s time to take the best of the best and put him in your lineup. Peyton Manning has had an amazing start to the season, having thrown nine touchdowns and zero interceptions with an unbelievable 116.9 QB Rating.
The guy is just on fire and although we always think of Peyton Manning as being a great fantasy play, his record on the road against the Jaguars is even better than “typical Peyton Manning.”
In his last three games in Jacksonville, Manning has thrown for 931 yards, 8 touchdowns, and only two interceptions—he even ran for a touchdown.
Not only is this a typically good matchup for Manning, but the Jaguars are ranked dead last in the league so far in stopping the pass, having allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 920 yards and seven touchdowns already.
With the Colts struggling to run the ball this season and being so successful passing, matchups don’t get much better than this—get Peyton in your lineup if you still can!
Other Good Options:
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints (vs. Carolina Panthers)
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit Lions)
Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins (vs. New England Patriots)
AVOID: Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans (at Oakland Raiders)
2 of 10
We’ll be using Matt Schaub at some point this season, but this shouldn’t be the week.
With wide receiver Andre Johnson currently being called a “game-time decision,” we need to play it safe and assume that Johnson isn’t going to play. Even if he does, he’s going to be slowed by the injury.
Not only that, but Oakland’s pass defense has been surprisingly good this season. The Raiders have actually allowed the second-fewest amount of passing yardage against them so far in 2009.
The Texans have shown that they are not afraid to turn the game over to running back Arian Foster and the Raiders have struggled to stop the run this year.
PLAY: Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (at Oakland Raiders)
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Going in the opposite direction of the Matt Schaub “avoid” portion of this article, I’m going to suggest that everyone hops on the Texans’ running game and rides Arian Foster to a big week at the running back position.
Foster showed us what he can do against defenses that focus on stopping the pass in week one when he punished the Indianapolis Colts on the ground for 231 yards and three touchdowns.
He has since cooled down a bit, but Foster has been over 125 total yards in every game this season—the most recent two of which came against pretty good defenses in Washington and Dallas.
This week Foster gets a significantly better matchup against the Oakland Raiders and their 30th ranked defense against opposing running backs. The Titans, Rams, and Cardinals all had backs that had nice fantasy days against the Raiders—the Texans’ Arian Foster will be number four in a row.
Other Good Options:
Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (vs. Denver Broncos)
Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
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AVOID: Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
4 of 10
It has been a slow start to the season for the Indianapolis Colts running game and Joseph Addai. With just 165 yards on the ground in three games, Addai seems to be a likely target to get a significant amount of carries for the Colts in a game that many experts believe will be a blowout against the Jaguars.
But it was actually backup running back Donald Brown early this season that scored the Colts’ only rushing touchdown. While Addai will still see the larger share of the carries, we don’t know how many carries that will be—and we can assume that he’ll still be sharing some of them with Brown.
History has shown us that Addai has been fairly unsuccessful against Jacksonville during his career, rushing for an average of just 53 yards per game and scoring only three touchdowns in seven career games against the Jaguars.
It’s just too hard to predict this running game right now, so avoiding it is probably the best option until we learn more.
PLAY: Brandon Marshall, WR, Miami Dolphins (vs. New England Patriots)
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We learned in week 3 that Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne has finally decided to use his new toy, wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Marshall had an absolutely monster game against an excellent New York Jets defense, catching 10 passes for 166 yards.
Even though the Dolphins eventually lost the game, it was very encouraging to see Henne and Marshall connecting at such a furious rate.
The Dolphins have long been a run-first offense and now they have a passing attack that can complement it—maybe the Dolphins finally are back on the rise as an organization.
In week four, Marshall has a significantly easier matchup than the one he destroyed in week three as the 2-1 New England Patriots head to Miami.
The Patriots’ typically solid defense has been absolutely awful against the pass so far in 2010. In three games, they have allowed 46 completions to wide receivers for 568 yards and four touchdowns to opposing wide receivers—and that includes back-to-back games with the Jets and Bills, who really have no standout receivers on their rosters.
Brandon Marshall is among the very best receivers in the league and he’s on a tear right now. The Patriots could triple cover him right now and they still have very little chance of stopping him. This is a matchup that could bring huge fantasy numbers for Marshall and the Dolphins’ passing game.
Other Good Options:
Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (vs. San Francisco 49ers)
DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington Redskins)
Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins (at Philadelphia Eagles)
AVOID: Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans (at Oakland Raiders)
6 of 10
As I mentioned early in the article, Andre Johnson has missed all week of practice with an ankle injury. He has been stuck with the dreaded “game-time decision” tag and unfortunately for every fantasy player, the Texans play in a late afternoon game this Sunday, meaning that we won’t be able to update our lineups if he ends up missing the game.
Even if Johnson does play, this is not a great matchup for him. The Raiders are currently 8th in the NFL in shutting down opposing wide receivers, having allowed a total of just 240 yards to them in three games.
All-world cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha has been blanketing the opposing team’s top receiver and held a healthy Larry Fitzgerald to just one catch for 18 yards in the entire game (Fitzgerald did catch one other pass for an eight yard touchdown, but it was against a zone in the middle of the field with Asomugha not around).
While Matt Schaub is certainly better than the quarterback situation in Arizona and some would argue that Johnson is more talented than Fitzgerald, the point remains that Asomugha is perhaps the best pure cover corner in the game.
With Johnson’s injury concerns and Asomugha in his face if he does play, it’s best just to avoid putting him in your lineup.
PLAY: Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets (at Buffalo Bills)
7 of 10
What a wild last two weeks into fantasy relevance it has been for New York Jets tight end Dustin Keller.
After catching just two passes for 13 yards in the Jets’ opening week loss to the Ravens, Keller has since become Mark Sanchez’s favorite and most reliable target. In weeks two and three, Keller had 13 receptions for 213 yards and three touchdowns—numbers that put him at the very top of the league in fantasy production.
We have been told all along that this guy is a true pass catcher and a game-breaking talent, but we’re finally getting to see it on the field. Keller has been running excellent routes and catching everything that Sanchez throws his way.
The Bills have given up back-to-back 100+ yard games to opposing tight ends on the Packers and Patriots and there is little reason to believe that Keller couldn’t make it three in a row.
Other Good Options:
Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (at St. Louis Rams)
Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit Lions)
AVOID: Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington Redskins)
8 of 10
This has been one of the most disappointing fantasy situations this season. We all went into the 2010 season with the assumption that the Philadelphia Eagles quarterback would be Kevin Kolb. Not only that, but we knew that Kolb and his tight end Brent Celek were good friends off-the-field, which usually bodes well for their success on the field.
That all changed when Mike Vick took over.
Despite Vick’s success this season and his history of throwing to tight ends, Brent Celek appears to be a complete afterthought in the Eagles’ passing attack. With just nine catches for 101 yards and no touchdowns, Celek has not only failed to live up to the top-five expectations we had going into the season—he has failed to even produce numbers that warrant him being in our lineup.
Add to all of this an irritating wrist injury that has bothered him all week in practice and this is a must-avoid matchup in week four.
PLAY: New Orleans Saints (vs. Carolina Panthers)
9 of 10
As week four arrives, it seems like the Saints may still be in shock from the game they gave away at home in week three to the Atlanta Falcons.
It was a close game throughout, but the Saints put themselves in position to win with a very makeable 29 yard field goal in overtime.
But after being a hero for the Saints in the 2009 playoffs, their inexperienced kicker Garrett Hartley missed the kick, which then led to a made field goal by the Falcons and the first loss in the books for the defending Super Bowl Champions.
The Saints will be ready to avenge that loss this week, and what better way to do it than to host another division rival at home.
The Carolina Panthers head to New Orleans this week after an 0-3 start that has already seen a quarterback change from Matt Moore to Jimmy Clausen and a normally high-powered running game fade into mediocrity.
I normally recommend against inner-division games, but this one is just too good to pass up on. The Saints are hungry and the Panthers are just trying not to get blown out.
Other Good Options:
New York Jets (at Buffalo Bills)
Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit Lions)
Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
AVOID: New England Patriots (at Miami Dolphins)
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It’s rare to say this, but if there is any team in the league that seems to have Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots’ number, it is the Miami Dolphins. Under Belichick, the Patriots are just 4-6 against the Dolphins in Miami—a far cry from the 7-3 domination they have against them at home.
There’s no doubt that New England’s offense is among the very best in the league, but Miami’s pass defense is pretty good, currently ranked 9th in the league in yards-allowed, and they have allowed just four passing touchdowns.
The Patriots are currently a one-point favorite to win this game, but it is by no means a lock. Miami is one of those teams who seem to play up or down to their level of competition so it could come down to the very end.
If you’re like me, you used the Patriots last week against the Bills, but even if you haven’t used them yet, take a look at their schedule—with games upcoming against the Browns, Lions, and one more against the Bills, we still have plenty of time to get an easy win from Tom Brady and the boys.
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