Will the Chicago Bears Start the Season 9-0?
The Chicago Bears own a surprising 3-0 record to start the season. Say what you will about any of those wins—it's all water under the bridge.
Our starting point is Week 4 to analyze whether or not the Bears can win their first nine games of the year.
Through Week 9, the Bears' next six opponents own a combined 5-13 record, and the Bears have a stifling run defense, a bend-but-don't-break passing defense, the third-rated quarterback in the league in Jay Cutler, and have already defeated two widely selected preseason favorites for the Super Bowl.
This slideshow takes a look at the Bears' next six opponents and concludes with reasons why they will or won't start 9-0. Enjoy the show.
Week 4: New York Giants (1-2)
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The Bears play the New York Giants at New Meadowlands Stadium on Sunday night.
The Giants are a team in disarray, having been outscored by 43 points in their last two games, while only scoring 14 and 10 points respectively.
In addition, the Giants are ranked No. 26 against the run. The Bears have had limited success running the ball thus far, but they're a pass-first team under Mike Martz anyway.
The Bears' rushing attack should have its best day to date, and Cutler will throw for close to 300 yards and two TDs.
The Bears defense should be able to shut down an uncertain Giants offense. These are not the Dallas Cowboys or the Green Bay Packers.
Vegas has the Giants by three. This is the game to bet against the line. The Bears should win by two TDs.
Week 5: Carolina Panthers (0-3)
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The Panthers are looking like basement dwellers this year. They've already dumped a mediocre quarterback for a rookie and are struggling on both sides of the ball.
They've only managed seven points in each of their last two games.
Carolina is no match for the Bears' offense or defense, even at home.
Week 6: Seattle Seahawks (2-1)
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The Seahawks are the lone team currently boasting a winning record facing the Bears in the next six weeks.
Are the Seahawks a surprise team and a decent test this year?
Seattle's defense broke the Chargers in Week 3. The Seahawks face the St. Louis Rams in Week 4 and then have their bye week just before the showdown in Soldier Field. They can pad their wins versus the Rams and then have two weeks to rest and prepare for Chicago.
A 3-1 start and a victory against the Bears would probably not only put them in control of the NFC West, but also give them the confidence to win it.
Through Week 3, the Seahawks are only averaging 84.7 yards rushing, while the Bears are giving up a ridiculously low 39.7 yards rushing. The only way for the Seahawks to win is through the air and the resurgent arm of Matt Hasselbeck.
Hasselbeck lacks premier receivers, though one could also say that about the Bears. The difference, however, is that that no-name Bear receiving corps has caught 870 yards of passes to Seattle's 598, while making their quarterback, Jay Cutler, the third-rated passer in the league at 109.7.
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Week 7: Washington Redskins (1-2)
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The Washington Redskins come to Soldier Field in Week 7, giving the Bears back-to-back home games.
By then, the NFL landscape will probably look very different in terms of how teams are performing, but currently, here are the Redskins' strengths and weaknesses:
Strengths: Their Donovan McNabb-led passing offense is ranked seventh in the league, and their run defense is solid enough.
Weaknesses: The Redskins are only gaining 74.3 yards on the ground per game, again, versus a Bears defense that is giving up 39.7 yards. Here's the biggie though: Washington is ranked 31st against the pass.
Big day for Jay Cutler, anyone? Like the Seahawks, the Redskins are going to have to beat the Bears through the air, and the Bears are, quite frankly, better than them at that.
Week 9: Buffalo Bills (0-3)
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It's easy to dismiss Buffalo as one of the league's whipping boys, and the game's in Toronto, no less.
However, the Bills played both Miami and New England in close games, losing 15-10 and 38-30 respectively.
That being said, they rank 26th in points scored (15.7), dead last in yardage (242.0), and 31st in passing yardage with a pathetic 139.3 ypg. That's not the offense you want to bring against a defense that's starting to feel a little bit like a throwback to its 2006 heyday.
On the defensive side of the ball, they're a bit better but still give up the second-most points in the league at 29 points.
I would expect Buffalo's woes to continue after a Bear visit, especially if the Bears dropped either one of their last two home contests.
Week 10: Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
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This is the big one. Second only to the Bears-Packers rivalry is the Bears-Vikings rivalry.
Minnesota is an enigma this year. They were picked by many to win the division outright, and they've struggled out of the gate.
Brett Favre's receiving corps has been uncertain and banged up, and Favre has yet to look anything like last season, but any team with "All Day" Adrian Peterson always has a chance. Plus, Favre always gives his team a puncher's chance.
The Minnesota defense is, well, a bear, giving up only 12.7 points per game, and it would not be surprising if the Vikings are surging back into divisional contention by Week 9.
The NFL schedule gods blessed the Bears with their first three divisional games at home, and they've already beaten Detroit and Green Bay. Beating Minnesota ensures no worse than a 3-3 split record in the division, which may make all the difference in winning it and qualifying for an automatic playoff spot.
Conclusions: Will the Bears Go 9-0 or Won't They?
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Why They Will
This is a team that's beginning to come together. The Mike Martz offense is clicking much earlier than many of us anticipated.
Since Week 16 of last season, Jay Cutler has thrown 14 touchdown passes, the most of any quarterback, and over that span has a passer rating of 112.1. So far this season, he is third in quarterback rating at 109.7.
The Bears have an underdog mentality, and they like it that way. Almost every prognosticator picked the Bears to finish third in the division, and few picked the Bears to have a winning record.
The Bears have already defeated two preseason NFC Champion favorites in the Cowboys and the Packers, and the defense is starting to feel like a throwback to 2006. It's not quite there in the sack department, but they're a ball-hawking, turnover-creating unit that's giving up a league-best 39.7 yards rushing per game. They follow Lovie Smith's bend-but-don't-break philosophy and are one of only five teams not to give up a 40-yard reception.
The Mike Martz offense is pass-first and has shown that it can put up huge yards and score without a dominant running attack.
The schedule is very favorable to the Bears. The next six opponents have a combined 5-13 record. Seattle, Washington, and the Vikings are the biggest tests, and each one of those is a home game.
Why They Won't
Injuries: So far the injury bug has not bitten the Bears like last year. Still, very few NFL teams get through a season without key injuries. Injuries to the offensive line, Cutler, or the secondary would expose the Bears' lack of depth in those areas and quite possibly cost them games.
Weaknesses: The offensive line looked shaky in the preseason but has been able to let Cutler operate effectively, though he takes hits and sacks each game. The defensive line, despite one of the best front sevens in football, has only recorded two sacks to date, allowing opposing quarterbacks plenty of time to operate. The Bears are also only averaging 3.2 yards per rush and have been unable to punch the ball in from the 1-yard line in two separate games.
The Bears have played some close games and escaped. If the above weaknesses are not addressed, they could bite them in the ass and throw the next close game for a loss.
Conclusion
The Bears are still a team coming together offensively and defensively, and barring injuries, I expect them to improve over this span. Each of their next six opponents is very beatable. Going 3-3 over this period would be considered a failure, despite leaving the Bears with a 6-3 record, which, preseason, would have been considered a great start.
If Bears players and coaches keep the proper perspective and stay focused on the divisional title, they may go 7-2, 8-1, or yes, even 9-0.
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