College Football Picks and Predictions: Week 5

Each Monday morning, Whatifsports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including the home team's chances of winning (home win percentage) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2010 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Locks and Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts, and statistically-based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Stanford (12) vs Oregon (7)

If you have the chance to procure a ticket to this Saturday's showdown in the Pac-10, you are one Lucky Duck.

Thanks, try the veal.

That may be a tired one-liner, but the Stanford Cardinal and Oregon Ducks are ready for the first of the month to wake up themselves and the rest of the country. With the SEC "down" this year, the Cardinal versus Ducks on national television hands the left coast a platform to prove that they do belong in the power-conference discussion, and that all of this is attainable without USC assistance.

Sometimes fresh blood can be good for the game.

As I pointed out in last week's Heisman Trophy piece with Whatifsports.com's college football insider Chris Rix, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck may be the best college football player you don't know much about. Trying to stay up for the 11:15pm EST kickoffs are part of the reason he flies below the radar.

Luck did throw his first two interceptions of the season last Saturday at Notre Dame, but these two aerial errors pale in comparison to his full body of work.

Through four games this year, he has tallied 11 touchdowns and thrown for 912 yards with a 62.7 completion percentage. Whatifsports.com staff writer Joel Beall had the privilege of watching Luck in person against the Irish, and says he's the real deal—and this analysis is coming from a Notre Dame fan.

Stanford, ranked ninth in the AP, is starting the season 4-0 for the first time since Ronald Reagan was in office, and is averaging the fourth-most points per game in the country (48.0 ppg) while holding opponents to just 13.8 points per game (12th/country).

Oregon proved it could handle the heat and stayed in Arizona State's kitchen, scoring a big road win with a 100-degree game-time temperature announced in Tempe Saturday night.

The ball-hawking Ducks defense, ranked third in the country in points allowed (11.0/gm), forced the Sun Devils to turn the ball over seven times.

ASU's Steven Threet threw four interceptions and the team lost three fumbles. Two of the turnovers were returned for six points.

The unusual part of the Ducks' offensive attack, first in points scored (57.8/gm), was they went to the air instead of the ground against Arizona State. Oregon ranks third in the country in rushing yards (321.8/gm), yet in this contest, Darron Thomas (Jeremiah who?) threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns, with the air game outgaining the ground by over 100 yards.

The main question in Saturday's game will be whether or not these two teams break the scoreboard as the first-ranked offense hosts the fourth-ranked offense. It could also become a defensive battle, with the third-ranked defense taking on the 12th, although this is less likely.

The Whatifsports.com college simulation engine "played" this game 101 times, and the computer likes the Oregon Ducks 62.4 percent of the time by an average score of 37-28.

NOTABLE GAMES

Saturday's football buffet includes two other premiere matchups that are worth highlighting: the Texas Longhorns versus the Oklahoma Sooners and the Alabama Crimson Tide versus the Florida Gators.

The Red River Rivalry takes a back seat this season, as Texas and Oklahoma did not help their hype with underachieving performances against UCLA (Longhorns loss) and Cincinnati (Sooners gave up 305 passing yards) on Saturday. Still, this game always invokes a lot of interest, and Mack Brown's team will have the chance to save face only one week after being exposed.

In 101 simulations, the college football simulation engine likes Texas upsetting Oklahoma at home 69.3 percent of the time.

Alabama survived their own scare by rallying back to beat Arkansas in their toughest test this season. Mark Ingram showcased his skills as he pursues a second Heisman Trophy, while the Tide washed away Ryan Mallett's chances of winning the trophy by picking off the QB three times.

Some thought the Florida Gators were ripe for the picking at Kentucky, but Urban Meyer begged to differ. Freshman quarterback/running back Trey Burton accounted for six of Florida's seven touchdowns against the Wildcats.

In 101 simulations, the college football simulation engine likes the Crimson Tide over the Florida Gators 76.2 percent of the time.

College Football Week 5
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
East Carolina Pirates	6.9	11	Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	93.1	34
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	49.5	25	Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers	50.5	26
Duke Blue Devils	57.4	29	Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins	42.6	28
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	64.4	27	Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles	35.6	24
Virginia Tech Hokies	73.3	36	Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	26.7	31
Florida State Seminoles	75.2	31	Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers	24.8	24
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	84.2	36	Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	15.8	20
Vanderbilt Commodores	5.0	12	Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies	95.0	37
Florida International Golden Panthers	5.0	6	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	95.0	50
Tulane Green Wave	9.9	16	Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	90.1	34
Florida Atlantic Owls	13.9	24	Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls	86.1	39
Penn State Nittany Lions	49.5	20	Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	50.5	22
Wisconsin Badgers	62.4	38	Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans	37.6	37
Michigan Wolverines	70.3	33	Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers	29.7	27
Northwestern Wildcats	92.1	31	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	7.9	16
Ohio State Buckeyes	95.0	39	Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	5.0	12
Ball State Cardinals	5.0	10	Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	95.0	34
Wyoming Cowboys	60.4	26	Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets	39.6	25
Buffalo Bulls	71.3	24	Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons	28.7	19
Kent State Golden Flashes	78.2	23	Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	21.8	13
Northern Illinois Huskies	82.2	27	Boxscore
@ Akron Zips	17.8	17
Idaho Vandals	92.1	40	Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos	7.9	22
Ohio Bobcats	95.0	35	Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles	5.0	10
Washington State Cougars	5.0	8	Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins	95.0	41
Washington Huskies	13.9	22	Boxscore
@ USC Trojans	86.1	38
Arizona State Sun Devils	14.9	19	Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers	85.1	33
Stanford Cardinal	37.6	28	Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks	62.4	37
Alcorn State Braves	5.0	9	Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	95.0	54
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	5.0	15	Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers	95.0	43
Tennessee Volunteers	13.9	14	Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers	86.1	29
Florida Gators	23.8	19	Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	76.2	29
Kentucky Wildcats	35.6	22	Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels	64.4	30
Cal Poly Mustangs	5.0	7	Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs	95.0	57
California-Davis Aggies	5.0	6	Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans	95.0	33
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	41.6	27	Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors	58.4	34
Brigham Young Cougars	64.4	28	Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies	35.6	27
Boise State Broncos	95.0	60	Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies	5.0	8
Temple Owls	88.1	31	Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights	11.9	16
Kansas Jayhawks	33.7	25	Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears	66.3	35
Texas A&M Aggies	52.5	32	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	47.5	31
Texas Longhorns	69.3	28	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners	30.7	22
Georgia Bulldogs	77.2	32	Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes	22.8	24
Texas Tech Red Raiders	85.1	34	Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones	14.9	21
Marshall Thundering Herd	25.7	26	Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	74.3	35
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	58.4	29	Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers	41.6	27
Southern Methodist Mustangs	95.0	37	Boxscore
@ Rice Owls	5.0	22
Navy Midshipmen	23.8	18	Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons	76.2	31
UTEP Miners	58.4	26	Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos	41.6	24
Nevada Wolf Pack	92.1	43	Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels	7.9	25
TCU Horned Frogs	95.0	47	Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams	5.0	11
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	34.7	17	Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green	65.3	26
Louisville Cardinals	68.3	29	Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves	31.7	25