New Orleans Saints-Atlanta Falcons: NFC South Clash on the Bayou

After San Francisco nearly pulled a major upset last Monday night, it is likely that more teams will use the same blueprint the 49ers employed against New Orleans in the weeks ahead—keep the ball out of Drew Brees' hands by controlling the ball on the ground against a suspect Saints run defense.

Expect those Dirty Birds from Atlanta to try the same approach this Sunday in the Superdome.

Back in the offseason, the national sports media "big feet" anointed the Atlanta Falcons as the team who would knock the New Orleans Saints off their perch in the NFC South. The "anointed ones" got off to a disheartening start with a 15-9 overtime loss to Pittsburgh in Week 1.

However, after last week's 41-7 crushing of the Arizona Cardinals, the Falcons come into New Orleans with momentum and swagger and moxie and all the rest of that stuff John Madden likes to talk about.

Atlanta has nicknamed their stingy defense the "D Block" and while no one will ever confuse them with the Monsters of the Midway or the Dome Patrol, they are fourth in the NFL in scoring defense. They forced Derek Anderson to leave the game early last weekend and limited Larry Fitzgereld to 83 receiving yards with a new secondary featuring CB Dunta Robinson.

The Falcons offensive numbers against the Cardinals had to catch the eye of Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who presides over the second worst run defense statistically in the league. Backup running back Jason Snelling rushed for 129 yards and added 57 receiving yards. Look for starting RB Michael Turner to be back in the lineup after missing significant time against Arizona last week due to a groin injury.  

The double-threat of Turner and Snelling is not good news for a Saints run defense that looked clueless last week against Frank Gore.

Atlanta racked up 444 yards and 33 first downs against the Cardinals and their rock star QB Matt Ryan passed for 225 yards on 21 completions.

It was redemption for Ryan who had a sub-par day against the Steelers and drew criticism in the Atlanta area for failing to finish drives in the season opener.

Pressure will be on Pierre Thomas to take it to the house this week after Pittsburgh's Rashard Mendenhall and the Cardinals Tim Hightower ripped off 50 and 80-yard TDs respectively against the Falcons defense in the first two games. Unfortunately, Thomas has been anything but special running the ball this year with 117 yards and a 3.2 average. His longest carry has been 11 yards and he lacks Reggie Bush's ability to make people miss.

As for the Falcons "D Block" defense, you have to wonder if their gaudy achievements have more to do with the fact that they played against Dennis Dixon and Derek Anderson instead of a Drew Brees. It is easy to look good against scrubs.

It was a short week for the Saints after a Monday night scare against the 49ers, a game the Saints won 25-22. Hartley's dying quail game-winning field goal was a microcosm of the team's performance that night—ugly but effective. 

Nevertheless, as champions do, they came up with the big play when needed, in this case a Brees to Marcus Colston 30 yard strike that set up Hartley's winning kick. 

Turnovers proved to be the Saints saving grace as they had four in keeping with Gregg Williams' bend-but-don't-break approach that won a championship in 2010. Gore was phenomenal with two TDs and 168 total yards and Alex Smith did New Orleans damage with both his arm and his feet.

While Pete Carroll and the Seahawks had little trouble shutting down the Niners, San Francisco seemed rejuvenated against the Saints defense with 24 first downs and over 400 yards of offense.

All but the most ardent "Who Dat" agree that the Saints offense looks out of sync through two games and the run defense looks just plain horrid. Tulane's Orleans Darkwa could probably gain 100 yards against this bunch. The Saints offense punted six times against a 49ers defense that surrendered 31 points to lightly-regarded Seattle.

History and the intangibles seem to favor the Falcons. 

Atlanta seems due to take one from the Saints after losing both games to New Orleans one year ago and seven of the past eight. Falcons head coach Mike Smith is 1-3 against the Saints and Atlanta has not won in the Superdome since 2002.  

Like the Saints, The Falcons have no shortage of talented targets for Matt Ryan to throw to including WR Roddy White who is tied for the NFL lead with 20 catches through two weeks. Add to the mix legendary TE  Tony Gonzalez and veteran receivers Michael Jenkins and Brian Finneran and the Falcons can damage you in a number of ways with their passing game. 

Saints defensive ends Will Smith and Alex Brown anchor a defense that has only a single sack so far this year and it doesn't figure to get any easier against Matt Ryan who is known for short drops and a quick release.

Yet, the Dirty Birds seem to bring out the best in Drew Brees as he gashed them for 604 yards passing and five touchdowns in two games in 2009. Although the points have not come easily in the first two games, Brees is still completing a mind-boggling 74 percent of his passes even if most of them have been dink-n-dunk.

LB Sean Weathersoon has been perhaps the most dangerous Atlanta defender with 17 tackles and one sack against Pittsburgh and Seattle. Look for him to be this week's version of Patrick Willis.

Sports Network sees the Saints-Falcons matchup this way: 

Strange to say about a defending Super Bowl champ that is off to a 2-0 start built off wins against a pair of division favorites, but something has been missing with the Saints so far in 2010. The offense has seemed a little more tentative, the defense a little less likely to make the huge splash play. Coming off a short week, that subtle sluggishness could cost New Orleans against what appears to be a legitimate contender in the Falcons. Atlanta is determined to prove it belongs in the NFC South and Super Bowl discussions, and there's no better way to do that than to take down the defending champs. In a game that should come down to the last drive or two, look for the Falcons to have the final word.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Falcons 23, Saints 20

I can't help but feel that Atlanta's improving defense is not as good as advertised given the fact that the first two quarterbacks they faced were Dixon and Anderson and they couldn't beat a Pittsburgh team minus Ben Roethlisberger. I say the Saints' soft run defense gets gashed again by Turner and Snelling but the offense fires on all cylinders for the first team this season...Shockey does a Saints version of the "Lambeau Leap" as he jumps in the stands after scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Randy's Prediction: Saints 34, Falcons 30