Auburn Vs. South Carolina Breakdown: Who Is The Real Favorite

Auburn plays its toughest game of the season this saturday against a very good, physical, and confident South Carolina team.  Before I say anything on the game, let me pay my respects to Kenny Mckinley, an excellent receiver and a great teammate.  He was one of the best players the Head Ball Coach had at South Carolina.  All of the current South Carolina receiver has learned and will continue to learn from the way he played.  I am counting on the Gamecocks to use that as motivation against Auburn.

Now, Auburn is formally a 3 point favorite against South Carolina.  But the general feeling from most not-Auburn fans is that South Carolina has more than one distinct advantage and should win he game.  So I am going to state my opinion and provide a breakdown.

South Carolina leads the SEC in rush defense and red zone defense, among other things.  Auburn leads the SEC in rushing yards and pass efficiency, among other things.  Now for the most important statistic of all: BOTH TEAMS ARE 3-0! (regardless of how they got there)

Right now, that is the only statistic that matters.  Its only been 3 games folks and both teams are only starting to hit the meat of the SEC schedule.

This team is on a high after beating Georgia, and all the talk of the team being a legitimate contender for the SEC championship has only made it better.  They have an experienced quarterback with some stud receivers and a very physical and gifted running back.  Auburn has shown weaknesses against screen plays.  Arkansas State, Mississippi State, and Clemson exploited it to the fullest.  Look for Spurrier to exploit it with better receivers than the ones Auburn has faced thus far.  Lattimore, while talented and very physical, is not going to get much going as a running back versus Auburn unless Auburn succumbs to their habit of poor tackling.  I honestly doubt this Auburn defensive line is gonig to have such problems.  If anything, Lattimore the receiver is going to be dangerous.  From what has been heard, he is a very good pass catcher out of the backfield as well.  I look for a lot of screen plays to Lattimore and the receivers.  What might make this worse for Auburn is that Spurrier has been practicing no-huddle offense, and I expect him to use that with the screen plays, which is going to make depth an issue for Auburn by the time 4th quarter rolls around.

Speaking of wide receivers, South Carolina's group can match along with the best.  A lot has been talked about how Auburn's comparatively undersized secondary (in terms of height) is going to deal with Alshon Jeffrey, Tori Gurley, and DJ Moore.  Coaches have emphasized proper technique, and I have yet to see that from this Auburn secondary on a consistent basis.  I doubt Auburn is going to shut down this receiving corp, but if they can contain them, Auburn's chances of winning goes considerably higher. 

Auburn on the other hand, need their offensive line to start playing to their potential.  I expect them to play at a higher level than they have so far.  South Carolina's defensive line is going to provide a stiffer test than Clemson.  But if these guys can avoid the first-half hangover like they had against Clemson, Cam Newton will have a good game.

Second, Newton needs to not lock on to a single receiver and improve on his decision making skills.  He is not going to have too much time to throw against this SC defensive line.  And if he has improved on that, Gus Malzahn is going to raise the tempo and that is going to raise the chances to putting more points on the board.  With Mario Fannin also returning, we might finally get to see the real Gus Malzahn offense,and Auburn will win.

Auburn's defensive line has been its major strong point thus far.  Garcia has not been known to perform well away.  Now for all I know, he might have matured.  But it looks like a good pass rush will still disrupt him, and this Defensive line is capable of more than just a good pass rush.  Lattimore ran all over Georgia's still-not-settled 3-4 defense.  First, in order for a base 3-4 defense to be successful, you need a nose tackle like Terrence Cody, who can eat up space and take on double teams.  Georgia did not have that.  DeAngelo Tyson is good, but not a proto-typical nose tackle. That said, it was still a good performance by a freshman running back against a good team.  I doubt he is going to replicate that against Auburn. 

In short, if this Auburn Offensive line plays to their level, and this secondary can just contain and limit the damage done by South Carolina's receivers, Auburn will win, especially with a raucous home crowd behind them.

As far as special teams go, Both these teams have great returners and a good but not great coverage.  Although I think Auburn has a better kicker in Wes Byrum

This game is a complete toss-up and no favorite.  This is not a game Auburn can fall behind by more than a touchdown and try to make a comeback.  its just not going to happen.  They have to start taking control of the game and fight for it from the get-go.  Another very physical game awaits in Jordan-Hare.  WDE!