College Football's Undefeated: Predicting When All the Unbeaten Teams Will Lose
Heading into Week 4 of the 2010 college football season, there are 34 undefeated teams. Of these teams, 21 of them are ranked within the AP Top-25.
Very few programs are able to achieve the wondrous fully undefeated season, although it is not fully impossible.
The following is a list composed of all 34 undefeated FBS teams, predicting each one's first loss of the season.
*All rankings are in reference to the AP Poll
No. 25 Michigan State
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The AP ranked No. 25 Michigan State Spartans are off to a surprising start with wins over Western Michigan, Florida Atlantic, and an amazing overtime win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish—but the honeymoon has got to stop somewhere.
The Spartans earned their first 3-0 start since 2007 first, and will likely go 4-0 after a contest against Northern Colorado in Week 4.
The team's first loss will likely come on October 2nd against the visiting Wisconsin Badgers.
The No. 11 Badgers might be too much for the Michigan State team to handle with an offense led by veteran quarterback Scott Tolzien and 2009 Big Ten Freshman of the Year, John Clay.
First Loss: Wisconsin, October 2
No. 22 West Virginia
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West Virginia might be one of the few teams that has been vastly overrated in the AP Top-25.
The Mountaineers had easy wins against Coastal Carolina and Maryland, but struggled in their overtime win against Marshall—a game that the Thundering Herd deserved to win.
West Virginia's first loss will likely be against the LSU Tigers in Week 4.
The Mountaineers are traveling to Baton Rouge to take on the No. 15 LSU team. This is where one would say this is their "first true test," but this West Virginia team already received that from an un-ranked team in Marshall.
LSU has been rolling after their opening win against then No. 18 North Carolina, and has been limiting their opponents to an average of 11 points a game.
First Loss: LSU, September 25
No. 21 Michigan
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The Michigan Wolverines are yet another team that has shocked the country—or would it be better said that their quarterback is shocking the country?
Either way, Michigan is off to a 3-0 start after taking down Connecticut, Notre Dame, and Massachusetts. And it would be safe to say that head coach Rich Rodriguez made the appropriate choice at quarterback in Denard Robinson, whom many consider at the top of the Heisman race.
Michigan will likely hit 5-0 and mover further down the rankings before their first loss in a road game against rival Michigan State on October 9th
Both Michigan teams are on fire this season being undefeated thus far, but when it comes to a heated rivalry, anything can go.
First Loss: Michigan State, October 9
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No. 20 USC
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The USC Trojans have been flying under the radar this season, most likely due to their average level of play through their first three games.
The Trojans start the season in regular fashion, going 3-0 with wins over Hawaii, Virginia, and Minnesota.
Gaining a record of 5-0 before the Trojan's first loss is would be most logical, with projected victories over Washington State and Washington in weeks 4 and 5.
USC's first loss will likely be against the No. 16 Stanford Cardinal in Palo Alto. Everything is clicking for the mighty Cardinal in 2010, led by star quarterback Andrew Luck, while the Trojans have yet to fully impress the college football world.
First Loss: Stanford, October 9
No. 17 Auburn
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The No. 17 Auburn Tigers start off the 2010 season 3-0, with wins over Arkansas State, Mississippi State, and an overtime win over the Clemson Tigers.
Auburn's first loss will likely be against the No. 12 South Carolina Gamecocks in Week 4.
Although the Tigers have the home field advantage, it will be a tough contest to upset the rising Gamecock defense, which has allowed just 12 points a game through the first three games.
First Loss: South Carolina, September 25
No. 16 Stanford
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The Stanford Cardinal are on the rise after many thought they would struggle after the departure of former running back and Heisman runner-up, Toby Gerhart. But star quarterback Andrew Luck has put up stellar performances through the first three weeks to put the Cardinal up 3-0.
Stanford's first loss will likely come on October 2 against the No. 5 Oregon Ducks. The Cardinal should roll into the game 4-0 after a win over Notre Dame.
The speed of the Duck offense is enough to confuse anyone, which could also apply to their defense. Oregon seems to have tremendous talent at nearly every position, making it a very difficult task for the Cardinal to complete an upset.
First Loss: Oregon, October 2
No. 15 LSU
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The LSU Tigers are fresh off wins over then No. 18 North Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State to gain undefeated status.
If things go right, the Tigers should gain home wins over No. 22 West Virginia and Tennessee to go 5-0, before facing their first possible loss against the Florida Gators.
LSU travels to the hostile confines in Gainesville on October 9 to take on the No. 9 Florida Gators. While the Gators have yet to fully impress with new starting quarterback John Brantley, Florida should squeak by with a close win over the Tigers.
First Loss: at Florida, October 9
No. 14 Arizona
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The No. 14 Arizona Wildcats are out to impress in 2010 after a huge Week 3 upset over the then No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes in Tucson.
The Wildcats have one of the most promising schedules in the Pac-10 with their only tough away games being at Stanford and Oregon, making their first-ever Rose Bowl chances a little more visible
Arizona has a chance to go 8-0 before facing their first loss of the season by taking down California, Oregon State, and Washington at home, and Washington State and UCLA on the road.
Then the Wildcats will face their first loss of the season against the Stanford Cardinal in Palo Alto on November 6.
No. 13 Utah
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The Utah Utes pulled an upset over the then No. 15 Pittsburgh Panthers in the first week of the season, and it has been all but easy wins since.
The Utes will likely go 8-0 after gaining wins over San Jose State, Iowa State, Wyoming, Colorado State, and Air Force before their first loss of the season.
Utah's first loss will be against the No. 4 ranked TCU Horned Frogs on November 6, in a Mountain West Conference showdown. While this should be an excellent game between two projected top-10 teams, the Frogs will come out on top.
First Loss: TCU, November 6
No. 12 South Carolina
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The South Carolina Gamecocks are on the rise with wins over Southern Mississippi, Georgia, and Furman to start the season off 3-0 and 1-0 in conference play.
The Gamecock's first loss will likely be against the returning National Champion Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday, October 9.
Although the Gamecocks have a convenient bye week before facing Alabama and have the home field advantage, the talented Alabama team might be too much to handle.
First Loss: Alabama, October 9
No. 11 Wisconsin
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The Wisconsin Badgers are fresh off a near upset win by the Arizona State Sun Devils in Week 3, ultimately winning by just one point.
The Badgers will likely go 6-0 with wins over Austin Peay, Michigan State, and Minnesota in coming weeks before hosting the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes on October 16.
While Wisconsin has the talent in veteran quarterback Scott Tolzien and talented running back John Clay, it might not be enough to take down the reigning Big Ten Champions in the Ohio State Buckeyes.
First Loss: Ohio State, October 16
No. 10 Arkansas
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Ryan Mallett and the Arkansas Razorbacks are off to a prolific 3-0 start after taking down Tennessee Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, and Georgia.
Assuming the Razorbacks pull of an upset over the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 4, the Razorbacks could go 8-0 before facing their first loss.
Arkansas will ride success until being upset by the South Carolina Gamecocks in hostile territory on November 6.
First Loss: South Carolina, November 6
No. 9 Florida
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While the Florida Gators haven't quite lived up to their hype of the off-season, the team is still pulling in wins.
The Gators should take down Kentucky in an easy Week 4 contest, before heading to Alabama to take on the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide for a rematch of the 2009 SEC Championship Game.
The Tide has been rolling as expected, while the Gators seem to just be "getting by" with wins. This contest should be close, but the Crimson Tide will issue the Gators their first loss of the season.
First Loss: Alabama, October 2
No. 8 Oklahoma
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The Oklahoma Sooners have found success in starting quarterback Landry Jones after being thrown into the starting mix in 2009 following Sam Bradford's shoulder injury.
Oklahoma has won games against Utah State, Florida State, and Air Force to put them undefeated for the season. The Sooners should continue to roll through with wins over Texas and Iowa State, before traveling to take on the Missouri Tigers.
The Sooners' first loss could come at the hands of Blaine Gabbert and the Missouri Tigers, in what will be the battle of the starting quarterbacks. Both Landry Jones and Gabbert have nearly identical numbers through the first three games, making for an interesting upset in Missouri.
First Loss: Missouri, October 23
No. 7 Texas
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The Texas Longhorns have breezed through their first three weeks with wins over Rice, Wyoming, and Texas Tech in their usual season opening fashion.
The Longhorns will gain another win against UCLA at home, before dueling the No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners on October 2.
In what will be an extremely close game, the Oklahoma Sooners will likely end the Texas Longhorns' undefeated run in 2010.
First Loss: Oklahoma, October 2
No. 6 Nebraska
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The Nebraska Cornhuskers start off the season with wins over Western Kentucky, Idaho, and Washington to go undefeated.
After winning an easy contest against South Dakota State in Week 4, the Cornhuskers host the No. 7 Texas Longhorns in a rematch of the 2009 Big 12 Championship Game.
While Nebraska has all the makings to go undefeated through the entire 2010 season, going with the nature of this list, the Cornhuskers most possible loss would be against the Longhorns on October 16.
First Loss: Texas, October 16
No. 5 Oregon
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The Oregon Ducks opened up the season by dishing out blowout wins against New Mexico, Tennessee, and Portland State to go 3-0.
This week, the Ducks head to Tempe to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils to open up Pac-10 conference play. The Sun Devils have showed tremendous improvement upon recent years, and are riding off a one-point loss to No. 11 Wisconsin in what should have been a Sun Devil upset if not for useless mistakes.
This may be a stretch, but Arizona State has the hidden ability to pull a surprise upset over the Ducks in Week 4.
First Loss: Arizona State, September 25
No. 4 TCU
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The TCU Horned Frogs are looking to gain another undefeated regular season, which is very possible when looking at the reaming games of the season.
While it is hard to predict a loss for the Horned Frogs given their talent and schedule, the most likely of opponents to end their undefeated run would be Air Force.
Air Force took down BYU in a Week 2 showdown and kept up with No. 7 Oklahoma in Week 3, only losing by three points.
First Loss: Air Force, October 23
No. 3 Boise State
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When it comes to the Boise State Broncos, it is extremely hard to predict a loss given their schedule within the Western Athletic Conference.
Boise State's only possible loss would come at the hands of the No. 24 Oregon State Beavers in a Week 4 showdown.
The remainder of Boise State's schedule consist of easy wins for the talented team, misplaced team.
Only Possible Loss: Oregon State, September 25
No. 2 Ohio State
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The Ohio State Buckeyes, led by quarterback Terrell Pryor, are one of the few teams who have lived up to their hype.
The Buckeyes brought in impressive wins against Marshall, Miami (FL), and Ohio to start the season undefeated.
Ohio State has the talent to cruise through their schedule to enter the rivalry game against the Michigan Wolverines 11-0, in which they could face a possible first and only loss.
Ohio State is yet another team to predict a loss for, and the contest against Michigan brings the uncertainty of a rivalry game to bring in a possible upset.
First Loss: Michigan, November 27
No. 1 Alabama
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The defending National Champion Alabama Crimson Tide are still sitting pretty at the No. 1 spot through week three.
After easy wins against San Jose State, Penn State, and Duke, the Alabama squad face their first true test of the season in the Arkansas Razorbacks in Week 4.
Quarterback Ryan Mallett has the led the Razorbacks to be place third in passing yards per game, and already racking in an impressive 1,080 passing yards through the first three games.
The Razorbacks have an extremely talented offense that is facing off against a rather young Alabama defense, and in the end, Arkansas could come out with a huge upset win over the visiting Crimson Tide.
First Loss: Arkansas, September 25
Un-Ranked, Undefeated Teams
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North Carolina State, first loss: Georgia Tech, September 25
Boston College, first loss: Notre Dame, October 2
Kansas State, first loss: Nebraska, October 7
Missouri, first loss: at Texas A&M, October 16
Oklahoma State, first loss: Nebraska, October 23
Texas A&M, first loss: Arkansas, October 9
Rutgers, first loss: North Carolina, September 25
Northwestern, first loss: Michigan State, October 23
Indiana, first loss: Michigan, October 2
Temple, first loss: at Penn State, September 25
Kentucky, first loss: Florida, September 25
Fresno State, first loss: at Boise State, November 19
Nevada, first loss: BYU, September 25
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