NFL Picks Week 3: The Top Underdogs Who Can Win Outright
Week 3 in the NFL promises to feature plenty of teams beating the spread and a handful of underdogs winning outright.
The Jets are early underdogs heading into Sunday night's AFC East battle with the 2-0 Dolphins in Miami, while the Cowboys, while the winless Vikings find themselves a huge favorite against the Lions in Minnesota.
Could the competitive Lions pull off the upset and send the Vikings reeling?
Here's a look at the upset probabilities of all 16 NFL games in Week 3.
No. 16: Buffalo at New England
1 of 16
Line: New England at -13.5
Upset Probability: 1 out of 10 (Won't Happen)
Why the Patriots Will Win: New England has huge problems at cornerback and hasn't shown the ability to run the ball this season. Neither weakness should open the door for Buffalo Sunday, especially considering the struggles of the Bills passing game. Unless Ryan Fitzpatrick can work miracles, the Pats' should win easily.
Prediction: New England 37, Buffalo 10
No. 15: Cleveland at Baltimore
2 of 16
Line: Baltimore at -10.5
Upset Probability: 1 out of 10 (Very Low)
Why the Ravens Will Win: Joe Flacco was awful against Cincinnati, but he has a big margin for error Sunday with the inept Browns coming to town. Ray Rice and Baltimore's front seven will make up for any shortcomings Flacco has in the passing game.
Prediction: Baltimore 24, Cleveland 6
No. 14: Washington at St. Louis
3 of 16
Line: Washington at -3.5
Upset Probability: 3 out of 10 (Low)
Why The Redskins Will Win: Despite the small point spread, the Redskins should be able to cruise to an easy win against the Rams. Donovan McNabb looked good in the loss to Houston, and Washington's defensive line will spend the day feasting on rookie Sam Bradford.
Prediction: Washington 27, St. Louis 10
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No. 13: Indianapolis at Denver
4 of 16
Line: Indianapolis at -6
Upset Probability: 3 out of 10 (Low)
Why the Colts Will Win: Peyton Manning should have his way against the Broncos secondary, and Denver's running game shouldn't be enough to produce a huge upset in the wake of a tragic week in the Mile High City.
Prediction: Indianapolis 31, Denver 13
No. 12: Cincinnati at Carolina
5 of 16
Line: Cincinnati at -3
Upset Probability: 3 out of 10 (Low)
Why the Bengals Will Win: Jimmy Clausen's first career NFL start could be a rough one against the Bengals swarming defense. Meanwhile, Cedric Benson is due for a breakout game after a slow start to the season.
Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Carolina 12
No. 11: San Diego at Seattle
6 of 16
Line: San Diego at -5.5
Upset Probability: 3 out of 10 (Low)
Why the Chargers Will Win: San Diego's offense woke up last week against Jacksonville and should be able to overwhelm the Seahawks defense. Winning in Seattle is never easy, but Philip Rivers and the Chargers get it done Sunday.
Prediction: San Diego 21, Seattle 15
No. 10: Philadelphia at Jacksonville
7 of 16
Line: Philadelphia at -3
Upset Probability: 5 out of 10 (Pretty Low)
Why the Eagles Will Win: Regardless of who is playing quarterback, the Eagles should be able to move the ball against the Jaguars' defense. Kevin Kolb will be eager to get the job done Sunday, and LeSean McCoy could have a huge game.
Prediction: Philadelphia 27, Jacksonville 16
No. 9: Detroit at Minnesota
8 of 16
Line: Minnesota at -10.5
Upset Probability: 5 out of 10 (Pretty Low)
Why the Vikings Will Win: Despite Brett Favre's struggles, the Vikings should be able to move the ball Sunday against the Lions. LeSean McCoy gashed Detroit's run defense last Sunday, and Adrian Peterson has looked great in the first two games of the season despite the struggles of his offensive line.
Prediction: Minnesota 30, Detroit 17
No. 8: Tennessee at New York Giants
9 of 16
Line: New York at -3
Upset Probability: 5 out of 10 (Pretty Low)
Why the Giants Will Win: There's no quarterback controversy in Tennessee just yet, but that could change if Vince Young doesn't begin showing improvement. Chris Johnson will bounce back, but Young remains a work in progress and will struggle against the Giants' defense. Running game or no running game, Eli Manning will manage to find a way to move the ball.
Prediction: New York Giants 20, Tennessee 13
No. 7: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay
10 of 16
Line: Pittsburgh at -2.5
Upset Probability: 7 out of 10 (Could Happen)
Why the Steelers Should Win: Despite the prospect of starting Charlie Batch at quarterback Sunday, the Steelers should be able to hang their hats on what looks like the best defense in the NFL. The 2-0 Bucs will come back to earth after a close loss at home.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 13, Tampa Bay 10
No. 6: Oakland at Arizona
11 of 16
Line: Arizona at -4
Upset Probability: 7 out of 10 (Could Happen)
Why the Cardinals Should Win: Few teams have looked worse than the Cardinals in the first two games of the season, but Arizona looks like the better choice this week given the uncertainty surrounding the Raiders quarterback situation. If the Raiders can put it together on offense, an upset is possible.
Prediction: Arizona 20, Oakland 18
No. 5: Atlanta at New Orleans
12 of 16
Line: New Orleans at -4.5
Upset Probability: 7 out of 10 (Could Happen)
Why the Saints Should Win: The Saints are still scoring points, but the defense has been almost as impressive as the offense in the first two games of the season. Sunday's game could present a trap for New Orleans coming off the win Monday night, especially if the Falcons can run the ball with Jason Snelling or Michael Turner to help keep Drew Brees off the field.
Prediction: New Orleans 27, Atlanta 23
No. 4: San Francisco at Kansas City
13 of 16
Line: San Francisco at -2.5
Upset Probability: 9 out of 10 (Probably Will Happen)
Why the Chiefs Should Pull the Upset: Despite going into the Week 3 home game undefeated, Kansas City isn't getting much love in Vegas. One reason could be the poor play of Matt Cassel, who will need to perform better against the tough 49ers defense. San Francisco has all the makings of a team unable to cope with expectations.
Prediction: Kansas City 20, San Francisco 16
No. 3: Green Bay at Chicago
14 of 16
Line: Green Bay at -3
Upset Probability: 9 out of 10 (Probably Will Happen)
Why the Bears Could Pull the Upset: Clay Matthews and Green Bay's pass-rush specialists on defense should be able to get pressure on Jay Cutler, but it might not matter unless the Packers can find a way to run the ball. Chicago's defense has been a huge surprise this season, and will give Aaron Rodgers his first real test of the season.
Prediction: Chicago 24, Green Bay 17
No. 2: New York Jets at Miami
15 of 16
Line: Miami at -2
Upset Probability: 10 out of 10 (It's Gonna Happen)
Why the Jets Will Win: New York should be ready to go against Miami and do what it takes to win ugly. After seeing what Adrian Peterson did to the Dolphins run defense last week, the Jets will likely pound the ball with Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson. Miami will be in the AFC East race all season long, but the Jets take the first meeting between the two teams.
Prediction: New York 14, Miami 13
No. 1: Dallas at Houston
16 of 16
Line: Houston at -3
Upset Probability: 10 out of 10 (It's Gonna Happen)
Why the Cowboys Will Win: There's not much evidence to go by, but the Cowboys have too much talent to continue the struggles on offense. Houston's rise to prominence has been fueled by the offense, but the defense has given up huge yards in each of the first two games this season. There's no reason Dallas won't be able to move the ball Sunday and score enough points to win.
Prediction: Dallas 38, Houston 31
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