Five Keys To A 49er Victory Against the Saints
Some old NFC West friends get together this week in a marquee Monday Night football matchup in San Francisco when the defending Super Bowl Champion Saints come calling to Candlestick in Week 2. For those familiar with the old division alignment, some of the very best challenges for the Niners within the division came from the New Orleans Saints and their "Dome Patrol" linebacking corps.
The 2010 season was one of great expectations for a San Francisco 49er team who looked markedly improved on many levels and looked to be turning the corner after a impressive preseason. This entire offseason had experts, fans, and pundits jumping on the bandwagon leading up to the first week in Seattle faster than you can say "Top Pot doughnut".
The Niners limp into their home opener after being throughly embarrassed on the road against a seemingly undermatched Seahawks squad. The Seahawks looked prepared and ready and despite a close game at halftime, simply pulled away from the Niners as the Niners did a horrible job in execution and looked like a team that just wanted to go home after the midway point of the third period until the final buzzer.
Niner fans are learning how quickly the bandwagon can empty after just one week, it will be up to the coaching staff to circle their wagons leading up to their home opener.
The Saints come off a Week 1 victory over the outmanned Minnesota Vikings team, who were missing a few key contributors in the secondary and looked disjointed and out of sync the entire game. The Vikings' normally stout run defense sprang leak after leak as Pierre Thomas ground the clock out on the NFC Champion runner ups from a year ago. Brett Favre looked rusty and out of sync with his receivers. With Sidney Rice out, the best option of the day was Greg Camarillo who was signed a week before the opener from the Dolphins.
Most experts have the Saints pegged as double digit favorites, and although the chances are against them, I happen to think the Niners stand a good chance of playing very well against the Saints. Here now are my five keys to the game and arguments for and against.
San Francisco Niner Defense
1 of 5
Why the Niner defense may do well against the Saints -
A cursory glance at the Saints recent performances against the 3-4 would indicate an almost down the middle split in wins and defeats. A closer look at the games however would indicate them struggling against the 3-4 on numerous occasions last year. Games against the Jets and Cowboys had the Saints struggling to move the ball at times and Brees under duress as these two teams sport some elite outside rushers in the 3-4 formation.
The Cowboy game last year was the Saints first loss and the Jets also got to Brees in quite a hurry, Brees was also ordinary (16 for 29, 172 yards, zero touchdowns, sacked twice, lost a fumble) against the Buffalo Bills going in a 27-7 victory.
The Forty-Niner front seven is among the top 5 in the NFL and feature All-Pro Patrick Willis in the middle. This team is a tough one on any given Sunday, and is usually well coached and plays within the system. The Niner edge rushers will have their work cut out for them and while the Saints bookend tackles Jon Stinchcomb, and Jermon Bushrod are not household names Brees makes any oline better with his elite pocket presence.
If Lawson and Harylson will need to step up their games to get Brees to hurry some of his throws, because giving the man any extended period of time to survey the field is asking for trouble.
The Saints survived many near losses last year, against the Rams, Redskins, Dolphins, and a Atlanta Falcon team without their starting running back or quarterback.
Why the Niner defense may fail against the Saints -
As stout and outstanding as the Niner front seven can be, the same cannot be said about their backend. They had a bad week against the Seahawks, as they continued to overplay and bite on double moves. Think any of the many ex-Niners kept their mouth shut after joining the Seahawks? Didn't look like it as youngster Tarell Brown, and Mr Overpaid himself Nate Clements turned the clock back to 2005 for Matt Hasselbeck.
Think Drew Brees isn't watching film right now and licking his chops? Payton and this offense will attack you where you are weakest, and will attack with no remorse.
Saints and double moves are like peanut butter and jelly. If the secondary continues to overplay and bite on the shorter routes this game will quickly become a track meet, only the Niners don't have enough runners. They need to keep a level head and keep the play in front of them, because asking for this secondary to stop Brees all together is a monumental task. They would be best served by trying to limit the big play and forcing the Saints to run the ball.
Make no mistake about it folks, head coach Sean Payton and Drew Brees are the best head coach / QB combo in the NFL hands down. The way that Brees can move the ball and his complete understanding of what the system dictates and allows for is quite simply uncanny.
The Saints dismantled the Belichick coached 3-4 Patriots defense last year, as Brees roasted them for five touchdowns and could have thrown 3 more had Payton not called off the dogs.
Reggie Bush almost single handedly destroyed the Arizona Cardinals with some electric running both inside and outside the tackles.
In his last two games against the Niners, Drew Brees has thrown for 699 yards and seven touchdowns at a disgusting 73 percent completion rate.
Frank Gore and Brian Westbrook
2 of 5
This duo has yet to get started as Week One had Gore limited to 17 carries and Westbrook did not play. Both players will have to bring their A games in the home opener, as there are yards to be had on this Saints defense. Offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye is going to have to call an exceptional game to keep Brees on the sideline and keep the clock moving.
Why the Niner running backs may succeed against the Saints -
Despite a very solid game from defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis, the Saints "limited" Adrian Peterson to a very healthy 4.7 yard per carry average. The Saints front seven is a tad undersized but extremely quick to the ball in Gregg Williams' swarming defensive style. The Niner offensive line just had a game that they would just as soon forget against the Seahawks in a very hostile environment. Whether from the noise or poor execution, this front seven looked piss poor in the second half against the Seahawks.
They will need to focus on execution this week to prepare for the Saints, and this matchup at least on paper looks to favor the Niners maulers. Keep emotions in check, limit mistakes and play physical are all keys Singletary is drilling into his team right about now.
Frank Gore needs no introduction as he has been and probably still is the Niners best player and should be the fulcrum of the offense.
Brian Westbrook must become Alex Smith's best friend as his role in the offense is a pivotal one this week. Westbrook in the lineup will most likely draw Jonathan Vilma in coverage, and against the hyper aggressive Williams coached defense Smith will do well to look to Westbrook often.
Why the Niner running backs may fail against the Saints -
Even if this matchup may look good on paper, this isn't a game of Madden. This Saints defense, while not stout in the middle is very proud. Jimmy Raye must develop a gameplan that will best utilize his squads talents, instead of trying to make players fit into the system. In my mind, this is the biggest part of this matchup because Raye and the 49ers have not shown the propensity to adjust on the fly.
Westbrook's involvement and what Raye has drawn up for him will go a long way towards a Niner victory. Unfortunately, nothing in the man's track record would indicate such an adjustment.
Vernon Davis
3 of 5
Why Vernon Davis may succeed against the Saints -
Vernon Davis is turning into a dynamic playmaker and potential perennial All-Pro, and Smith targeted him 13 times against the Seahawks. Davis hauled in eight of those passes for 73 yards, and turned heads in the league last year with 13 touchdown grabs.
I've been a long time doubter of the charismatic tight end, and still think he's a bit of a body-catcher but he is a physical freak of nature. His combination of speed and size make it difficult for most linebackers to keep up, and safeties to contain.
The duo of Westbrook and Davis properly utilized poses a unique threat to the Saints.
With Sidney Rice out of the lineup, Favre looked to his tight end early and often against the Saints. Shiancoe hauled in four passes for 76 yards and a touchdown, until the second half where Roman Harper and bracket coverage pretty much closed the door on Shiancoe's day.
With Westbrook and Davis in the lineup at once, many choices and possibilities arise from this matchup problem. There is nobody on the Saints roster fast enough, big enough or experienced enough to cover Davis one on one, and a properly utilized Westbrook only adds to the Saints problems. Fresh off a contract extension, it's time for Vernon to take the next step and be the big weapon this Niner team can count on week in and week out.
Why Vernon Davis may fail against the Saints -
The Niners could not protect Alex Smith against the Seahawks and the Saints pass rush leans heavily on the blitz and is very aggressive. The Saints were among the best in the league last year in turnovers and points off of turnovers. Throwing to Davis, presumably on the Niner seam routes, to the middle of the field can be dangerous. Add some pass rush in Alex Smith's face and I don't need to spell out what could happen.
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The Offensive Line
4 of 5
A large part of this unit's struggles can be attributed to crowd noise, inexperience along the line, poor play calling or any combination of the 3. They need to put a cohesive effort forth and show that this team is a contender rather than pretender. Better use of Gore and Westbrook will help in this area, and against a blitz happy defense such as the Saints these two can do some major damage.
Execution will be the name of the game this week, because the longer Drew Brees and the offense is standing on the sideline the higher the chances are of the Niners pulling out a win this Monday.
Coach Singletary's famous nutcracker drills and the basic principles it instills will be a huge part of how this Niner team plays. Man vs man, one on one, beating the man across from you, winning battles in the trenches, will allow for running lanes, and more time for Alex Smith to distribute the ball.
Alex Smith
5 of 5
Quarterbacks are powerful players in a game comprised of many players on a team who win through a team effort. This week, the onus falls upon still young Alex Smith to stand up and show what he's got on a national stage. This is Alex Smith's true test in his up and down career, his demon to conquer as it were. On Monday Night, after all the offseason moves to solidify the offensive line and surrounding him with more talent to succeed, Smith's time to shine is now.
Time will tell if he shines or shrinks.
Why Alex Smith may succeed against the Saints -
Alex Smith of checkered professional history, does not have a resume to lean on in this matchup discussion. He has never been a All-Pro, he has never led his team to the playoffs, he has never thrown for more than 18 touchdowns in a season and owns a dubious 37 to 45 touchdown to INT ratio. Even with all those negatives, Smith still conducts himself in a professional manner and has had to endure many unfortunate circumstances off the field in his career.
He is still most comfortable in the spread however, and while that does limit the offenses possibilities in pass protection it allows for Smith to identify the blitz quickly and distribute the ball. Gregg Williams showed quite a different hand against the Vikings last week, but I can almost guarantee you that Smith will see the blitz early and often. Going to the spread allows for the quick pass, and if Smith can identify where the pressure is coming from success can be had against their aggressive defense in the spread.
Why Alex Smith may fail against the Saints -
I have given the nod to Smith many a time despite his shortcomings as a passer, with his professionalism and courage despite the doubters. This past week however, marked a somewhat uncharacteristic side of Smith who made some strange comments about the playcalling and the system they were using. Now these comments may have been misconstrued or taken out of context, but the fact remains that this team gave Smith all the tools to succeed and the team flopped miserably on the road against the Seahawks.
My previous point about the spread is quite a double edged sword, as in the spread running the ball is not an optimum choice given the formation in question. This goes directly against the ball control, eating up the clock type of game the Niners undoubtedly want to play against the Saints.
Smith has not shown a great ability to pass out of more traditional sets, which would help the running game greatly as that threat to pass would help eliminate some of the 8 man fronts Frank Gore is so used to seeing.
The Niners face their stiffest challenge in this early season, and a loss in Week 2 would most certainly put a huge damper on their division hopes. Further, a poor showing of effort or desire at home will raise some questions about the team, their coach and the locker room.
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