College Football Predictions: Washington vs. Nebraska and Possible Week 3 Upsets
Week 3 in college football features 58 FBS games involving 111 FBS teams. After Weeks 1 and 2 featured 39 and then 25 FBS teams playing FCS foes respectively, Week 3’s slate of games includes a mere five FBS vs. FCS games.
This should just about end the FCS over FBS shockers for 2010; but after No. 13 Virginia Tech fell 21-16 to lowly James Madison in Week 2, who really knows what will happen next in college football?
One thing though is quite certain: as the season continues to surge onwards and kicks into high gear with conference games and more provocative matchups, the storylines will get more interesting with every snap.
But, no matter what the “hot topic” in college football is and regardless of who is the next “player of the decade” or “coach on the hot seat” might be, one thing will always be the same: the mighty will fall, the lowly underdog will triumph, and the beloved “upset” will live on eternally.
The following slideshow will continue one fanatic’s humble attempt, nay—mission, to identify but seven of the upsets that may occur during Week 3. As always, these selections have been organized from the most confident (hence the No. 1 pick) to that of the least assured (thereby awarded the No. 7ranking).
Regardless of the validity of the picks or the reasoning asserted, let us each remember that only 118 precious days separate us from the sad, but inevitable ending of the 2010 college football season.
7. Vanderbilt over Ole Miss
1 of 7
Ole Miss’ loss to Jacksonville State in Week 1 is unfortunately the stuff that legends are made of. Indeed, it’s difficult if not impossible to shake a loss as shocking and dramatic as a double overtime comeback loss to a FCS school.
It’s a lot like being the guy who throws up all over the place at the party; everyone always remembers the mess, the smell, and the "doer" no matter how long ago it was.
Most of college football expected Ole Miss to show its true colors and stomp its next opponent; the lowly Tulane Green Wave who were just 3-9 in 2009 and fresh off a close win over FCS foe Southeastern Louisiana.
But hold on, not so fast.
While Ole Miss managed a win over Tulane in New Orleans last weekend, they only won by two touchdowns and allowed 2009’s 105th-ranked offensive unit 319 yards. Additionally, the Rebels managed only 374 yards offense on the 102nd-ranked defense from 2009.
I’m not saying, I’m just saying . . .
On the other hand, Vanderbilt comes into Oxford a misleading 0-2 after a close loss to Northwestern following by a bit of a spanking by the big Cajun paw of the LSU Tigers.
Ole Miss is 1-1 after losing to a lowly FCS team and beating an FBS team that was 3-9 in 2009 by a margin of 76-61.
Vanderbilt is 0-2 against two FBS teams, who combined to go 17-9 in 2009 (in the Big Ten and SEC), and both went to bowl games. The combined margin of defeat was 50-24.
Ole Miss leads the overall series 47-31 and is 23-17 vs. the Commodores in Oxford.
The Bottom Line
Ole Miss is more talented, more stable, and is playing at home. This is all reflected in the two-touchdown point spread in favor of the Rebels.
The Commodores only combined for 135 total yards of offense against LSU last weekend and only have 567 yards total offense on the entire season.
Vanderbilt’s defense has given up 757 total yards offense to teams that ranked 71st and 76th respectively in scoring offense in 2009.
However, the Rebels have managed only 853 yards against a FCS team and a team that ranked 102nd in total defense in 2009 and have given up 667 yards to the same two teams on offense.
Ole Miss should put the hurt on Vanderbilt, but don’t be surprised if it is far more interesting that anyone ever imagined it could be.
Someone call ahead for extra top shelf vodka in the Grove... it might be medically necessary.
6. Washington over Nebraska
2 of 7
Washington just wants to get to a bowl game. The Huskies have waited eight long years to be bowl eligible, and they are only five wins away from reaching that goal.
The Huskies host the Cornhuskers this Saturday in Seattle in a battle of the “Husks." In this case, one of the Husks has been more tested than the other.
Washington has earned its 1-1 mark by starting the season with a close loss to BYU followed by a solid win vs. Syracuse.
No. 8 Nebraska has gotten to 2-0 by easily handling Western Kentucky and then Idaho (both at home).
The series between the programs is tied at 3-3. The two last met in 1998, when Nebraska beat Washington 55-7 in Lincoln.
The last time the Huskies scored a victory over the Cornhuskers was in 1992 when won by a 29-14 margin in Seattle.
The Big 12 leads the Pac-10 by a narrow margin of 124-115.
The Bottom Line
Nebraska is favored in this game by a field goal. This seems crazy, since they are ranked No. 8 and the Huskies are not included in the Top 25.
It is hard to say how good the Cornhuskers really are. We know that they have a top-caliber defense, and some might argue that giving up 578 yards of total offense in the first two weeks is questionable. That is, until you keep in mind that Idaho ranked ninth in total offense in 2009.
Offensively the Cornhuskers have amassed an impressive 649 rushing yards over the first two weeks and tacked on 358 passing yards. But, again, Nebraska was not exactly facing Oklahoma or Ohio State.
What is interesting in Nebraska’s all important “body of work” thus far is turnovers.
Idaho and Western Kentucky combined for eight turnovers in the two games, and whether these were forced by a stifling defense or not, it is worth pondering how much these had to do with Nebraska’s offensive successes.
Additionally, the Cornhuskers have already turned the ball over six times in 2010, a number that can’t be repeated in future games if Bo Pelini and friends want to frolic in the final Big 12 Championship game.
Washington will need to find away to score on Nebraska. If Jake Locker and company can manage to score against the “Blackshirts” (keep in mind that passing defense was the only “weakness” in Nebraska’s otherwise stifling defense in 2009), then they will have a chance.
If Nebraska keeps coughing-up the ball (even though only three balls were ultimately lost in the game vs. Idaho the Huskers hacked up the ball eight times total), and if the youthful Nebraska offense can be forced to make further mistakes when facing a much tougher foe in Washington, the Huskies may score a shocking win vs. the Huskers.
5. Mississippi State over LSU
3 of 7
The Mississippi Bulldogs continue to be a fascinating story in 2010. After a convincing win against Memphis in Week 1, they allowed the Auburn Tigers to leave Starkville with a close victory.
LSU, on the other hand, was not supposed to have a stellar 2010, but a closer-than-expected win over the depleted Tar Heels and a defensive shut down of the Commodores have the Tigers at a lofty 15th in the country.
LSU leads the series against the Bulldogs 63-34 and are 44-19 in Baton Rouge. The last time the Bulldogs beat the Tigers was in 1999, when they squeaked by 17-16 in Starkville.
The last time Mississippi State beat LSU in Baton Rouge? Well, friend, it just so happens to be the 20th anniversary of the last time that happened. It was 1991, and I owned two sets of hot rollers.
The Bottom Line
LSU is a touchdown-and-a-half favorite over the Bulldogs, which makes sense, as they are No.15 and playing at home, at night, and on national TV.
The Tigers should be able to manage a win over the Bulldogs, and for that matter, they should be able to beat them convincingly.
Regardless of who plays quarterback for the Tigers, the key to shutting down LSU will be shutting off their run valve.
LSU has racked up 442 yards rushing on its first two opponents. Mississippi State has allowed only 314 yards of rushing thus far.
If the Bulldogs can shut down the run, force the pass and find a way to score on the Tigers (and play tight coverage on kick-offs and punts), they may have a chance to win this game.
Watching the Bulldogs play under Dan Mullen makes you believe they will break through and win some big games sooner rather than later.
It may all come down not to whether or not Mississippi State actually believes they can beat their SEC foes. If they play like they do, they just may surprise everyone involved.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
4. BYU over Florida State
4 of 7
The Seminoles will be eager to erase the ugly memory of what happened in Norman, Oklahoma last weekend. Florida State’s much-anticipated matchup vs. the Sooners was meant to tell the college football world a lot about the future of the two teams.
Whether it was a mere aberration or not, we learned that the Seminoles have questions defending the pass, are successful defending the run and there is a nagging little question about turnovers.
None of these topics should be a surprise as a similar report could have been filed after the FSU vs. Samford game in Week 1. The only difference is FSU’s deficiencies weren’t quite as blaring in its 59-6 drubbing of FCS’ Samford as they were in its 47-17 thwarting at the hands of No. 10 Oklahoma.
BYU has played the same sort of Jekyll and Hyde roles that Kansas has during the first two weeks of play (only against better foes). Week 1 saw the Cougars hosting a hopeful Washington resulting in a big 23-17 victory, followed by a peculiar road trip to Colorado Springs to lose to Air Force. The game vs. the Falcons included only 88 yards of passing by the BYU offense, three turnovers, and allowing the Air Force offense to run for a sizzling 409 yards.
Let’s not forget that last Saturday was Air Force’s last chance to knock off BYU as a conference foe. BYU will have a target on their back for the rest of the season when facing Mountain West opponents on its way to freedom.
Florida State and BYU have only met three times (1991, 2000, and 2009). The Seminoles have won all three contests and their margin of victory is an impressive 127-59 overall.
The ACC is 9-8 all time vs. the Mountain West.
The Bottom Line
Florida State is just under a touchdown favorite over the Cougars.
It is hard to pinpoint the true identity of either of these two teams after two weeks of play. Is BYU the team that beat Washington in Week 1 (allowing only 394 yards total offense), or they the team that got blasted by the Falcon running attack in Week 2?
Are the Seminoles the team that lit up Samford, or the team that got spanked by Oklahoma? The truth for Florida State is probably somewhere in the between the two.
The revival of Seminole football under Jimbo Fisher is indeed underway, but far from complete.
BYU has a good team, and if they can eliminate the turnovers, they have a real chance to upset Florida State at home.
3. Notre Dame over Michigan State
5 of 7
Michigan State will host Notre Dame this Saturday night in Spartan Stadium after winning two games that, in reality, tell us very little about who they are as a team.
The Spartan victories over Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic make clear the fact that running the ball is the Spartans' strength. Questions regarding the passing game and the defense remain unanswered.
The Fighting Irish started the season and the Brian Kelly era with a win vs. Purdue, but followed that with a last minute loss to Michigan in which QB Dayne Crist went out of the game early with a head injury.
Notre Dame still has obvious holes at defense, and even with Crist at the helm, you have to wonder if their defense can hold a lead all the way until the last second ticks off the clock.
Notre Dame leads the series 32-26, and is 16-13 in East Lansing. The Spartans are 6-4 over the Irish in the two teams’ last 10 meetings, and haven’t loss to the Irish by more than a touchdown since 1993.
The Bottom Line
The Spartans are field-goal favorites going into the matchup with their long time rivals the Fighting Irish.
Michigan State has been successful running the ball in its first two games (522 yards total), and though Notre Dame gave up only 102 yards rushing to Purdue, they allowed the Wolverines 288 yards on the ground.
Of course, running the ball on Notre Dame should be quite a bit different than running the ball on Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic.
Michigan State has allowed 624 yards of total offense from two opponents, who were a combined 10-14 in 2009.
If Dayne Crist can stay on the field and Notre Dame can manage to finish the game defensively, the Irish will have a very good chance of knocking off the Spartans at home.
Irish haters and curious onlookers will be happy to know that this game is favorably slated for broadcast on a non-NBC channel.
2. Kansas over Southern Miss
6 of 7
Friday night’s meeting between the Jayhawks and the Golden Eagles mark only the second time the two teams have ever met. Their first meeting was in 2009, when Kansas edged Southern Miss. 35-28 in Lawrence.
The 2010 contest features two 1-1 teams who have followed drastically different paths into Week 3—Southern Miss suffered an opening thrashing by a good South Carolina team followed by a big win over FCS Prairie View A&M.
Kansas, on the other hand, led by new Coach Turner Gill, began its 2010 campaign with a painful 6-3 loss to FCS North Dakota state and followed this up with a stunning win over No. 15 Georgia Tech.
Neither team has ever won a game on Friday night. The Big 12 is 51-11 all time against Conference-USA.
The Bottom Line
The game is being played in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, and the Golden Eagles are favored by three points.
Kansas held its first two opponents combined to 575 yards. They can play defense and can be expected to continue to find their identity on offense in Week 3. The Jayhawks lost to a poor team and beat a very good one.
Southern Miss has a potent offense and a defense that was completely manhandled by the Gamecocks in Week 1. They beat a poor team and lost to a good one.
Overall, Kansas has to have the edge in this game. Despite the shocking loss to North Dakota State (who gained only 168 total yards in the game), Kansas still has a talented group of athletes and a good coach.
If Kansas can build on the goodwill created in their upset win vs. Georgia Tech, they should be victorious.
1. Arkansas over Georgia
7 of 7
Georgia is favored by just less than a field goal going into its Saturday conference game with Arkansas.
The Bulldogs' 1-1 record includes a big win in its opener vs. Louisiana-Lafayette followed by close loss to South Carolina in Week 2.
The No. 12 Razorbacks, on the other hand, come to Athens touting two big wins over two wholly overmatched opponents; Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe.
Georgia is 9-3 overall in its series with Arkansas and 2-1 in games played in Athens. The last time the Razorbacks bested the Bulldogs was in 1993, when they won 20-10 in between the hedges.
The Bottom Line
Arkansas is basically unproven thus far this season. Though they played well in their two first games, Georgia represents their first formidable opponent of 2010.
We know the Razorbacks can throw the ball successfully; they were No. 1 in the SEC in passing in 2009, No. 10 nationally, and have already racked-up 723 yards of passing in the first two games of 2010 (albeit vs. weaker opponents).
Georgia still won’t have playmaker AJ Green back on the field on Saturday, but the Bulldogs are plenty talented, even with Green out.
The Bulldogs were shut down by the Gamecock defense (253 yards total offense), but defensively have only given up 482 yards of total offense combined over the past two games.
It is always interesting when a team that is ranked No. 12 is the underdog to a team that is unranked. This seems ludicrous, at best, and really lends to the argument that the entire ranking system is questionable and debatable.
The Razorbacks should beat the Bulldogs, regardless of where the game is being played.
Of interest, the Razorbacks have already turned the ball over six times in 2010. If this trend continues into its SEC games, Arkansas could just become the next top-15 team to fall from glory.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
