San Diego Chargers 2010 Schedule: Are They AFC Title Contenders?
After a tumultuous offseason that saw several changes, the four-time defending AFC West Champions will have a long road to go. With their quarterback now unquestionably the leader of the offense, can a Philip Rivers-led offense do what a LaDanian Tomlinson-led group couldn't: take San Diego to the Super Bowl?
Week 1: At Kansas City
1 of 16
September 13, 2010
10:15 p.m. (Monday Night)
Arrowhead Stadium
Why They’ll Win: They’re playing the Chiefs. Not only have the Bolts beaten the Chiefs five straight times but last year they absolutely crushed KC. San Diego won both games in 2009 by scores of 37-7 and 43-14. Not only that but the Chargers didn’t even run the ball particularly well in those victories. But they didn’t need to: Philip Rivers was near-perfect in both games. And the Chiefs haven’t made that many improvements to their defense to expect much change from a year ago. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs' offense is still in flux. Both Matt Cassel and Todd Haley have a long way to go in proving they deserve their jobs and San Diego is not the team to get started against.
Why They Might Lose: The Chiefs have the edge in the running game. Ryan Matthews is a first round talent but don’t expect him to burst on the scene in his first NFL game. Jamaal Charles finished 2009 very strong and is the feature back the Chiefs need. And if Shawn Merriman (Doubtful) can’t play the Chiefs can keep the chains moving and the clock running, keeping Rivers off the field and the score low.
Key to the Game: Pressuring the quarterback. The Chiefs could not protect Cassel in last year’s game at San Diego, allowing six sacks and several more hurries. That helped the Chargers force force interceptions from Cassel and led to their blowout in Week 7. If Merriman and company can harass Cassel, once again the game will be over by halftime.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Chiefs 10
Week 2: Home Vs. Jacksonville
2 of 16
September 19, 2010
4:15 p.m.
Qualcomm Stadium
Why They’ll Win: At home Philip Rivers is one of the league’s best quarterbacks and even though Vincent Jackson won’t be around, he is still poised to have a good season. The Broncos don’t have nearly the talent on offense (especially at quarterback) that the Chargers have and last week Jacksonville gave up nearly 300 yards passing to Denver. Facing the Jaguars average defensive backfield, the Chargers and Rivers should total far beyond 300 yards and at least two touchdowns.
Why They Might Lose: The Jaguars might not be flashy but they have the type of grind-it-out offense that will frustrate the Chargers. Everyone knows that Jones-Drew will probably gain 100 yards each week but if David Garrard plays as well as he did against Denver, the Jags can score points and dictate tempo. Garrard’s efficiency (16/21 last week) should concern Ron Rivera’s defense but so will his mobility. If he breaks the pocket, it will lead to first downs and wear out the Chargers in the hot San Diego sun.
Key to the Game: Sticking to the running game. Without L.T. the Chargers don’t have a reliable threat to carry the ball 20-25 times….they didn’t WITH L.T. in recent years either. But Rivers can’t throw on every down and if they grab the lead they are going to have to run the ball to salt away victory. Whether it’s Matthews, Darren Sproles or fullback Jacob Hester, San Diego has to be productive when they chose to run the ball; if nothing else to keep the defense honest.
Prediction: Chargers 17, Jaguars 13
Week 3: At Seattle
3 of 16
September 26, 2010
4:15 p.m.
Qwest Field
Why They’ll Win: Seattle looked good in their opener against San Francisco but they still were playing an Alex Smith led offense. Pete Carroll will greatly improve a defensive unit that ranked 25th in the league in points allowed last season but it’s not going to happen in the first month. With frequent opportunities against 36-year-old Lawyer Milloy, Antonio Gates should catch several passes over the middle which will free up things on the outside. In short, the 49ers made the Seahawks defense look better last week than it really is.
Why They Might Lose: On paper this should be a victory for the Chargers, but Seattle is no push over despite last season’s 5-11 record. They might not have any all-pros on their offense but there is a lot of depth: Deion Branch and the re-born Mike Williams are capable of making big plays and with Justin Forsett, Julius Jones, and Leon Washington, the Seahawks have a diverse backfield. And although he is on the downside of his career, Hasselbeck played very well in last week’s win: if he completes over 75 percent of his throws (like he did against San Francisco) the Seahawks will again own time of possession.
Key to the Game: San Diego’s wide receivers. Antonio Gates will have a big game but that’s not enough to lead the Chargers to victory. When Lofa Tatupu has to help over the middle with Gates, the Chargers receivers need to make plays on short slants and crossing routes and gain yards after the catch.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Chargers 21
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Week 4: Home Vs. Arizona
4 of 16
October 3, 2010
4:15 p.m.
Qualcomm Stadium
Why They’ll Win: Coming off a tough road loss to Seattle, the Chargers will be glad to see the Cardinals come to town. Arizona is now a shell of the team that nearly won Super Bowl XLIII. Without Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin, everything falls on Larry Fitzgerald. Quentin Jammer
Why They Might Lose: The Jaguars might not be flashy but they have the type of grind-it-out offense that will frustrate the Chargers. Everyone knows that Jones-Drew will probably gain 100 yards each week but if David Garrard plays as well as he did against Denver, the Jags can score points and dictate tempo. Garrard’s efficiency (16/21 last week) should concern Ron Rivera’s defense but so will his mobility. If he breaks the pocket, it will lead to first downs and wear out the Chargers in the hot San Diego sun.
Key to the Game: Sticking to the running game. Without L.T. the Chargers don’t have a reliable threat to carry the ball 20-25 times….they didn’t WITH L.T. in recent years either. But Rivers can’t throw on every down and if they grab the lead they are going to have to run the ball to salt away victory. Whether it’s Matthews, Darren Sproles or fullback Jacob Hester, San Diego has to be productive when they chose to run the ball; if nothing else to keep the defense honest.
Prediction: Chargers 37, Cardinals 7
Week 5: At Oakland
5 of 16
October 10, 2010
4:15 p.m.
Oakland Coliseum
Why They’ll Win: The Chargers have won 13 straight against their in-state divisional rival and are the better team top to bottom. The Raiders were thumped in the opener at Tennessee. Oakland’s defense hasn’t improved any after 2009 despite the addition of Kamerion Wimbley. By this point in the season, the Chargers will know who they are: a passing-heavy team. Against a sub-par Raider team, they can certainly get away with a one-dimensional approach.
Why They Might Lose: As bad as the Raiders were in 2009, they did fight the Chargers tough in both matchups, losing by just a touchdown each time. That might have built up some confidence in the very Oakland locker room. If the Chargers look past the Raiders at all, an upset is possible.
Key to the Game: The Charger front-seven. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush are two very talented backs who have not gotten much attention because they play in Oakland. With the mobile Jason Campbell taking over at quarterback, the Raiders do have the big-play ability in the running game. If the Chargers don’t remain in their lanes and follow their assignments, a cut back runner like McFadden or a scrambling Campbell might break a huge play.
Prediction: Chargers 19, Raiders 14
Week 6: At St. Louis
6 of 16
October 17, 2010
1:00 p.m.
Edward Jones Dome
Why They’ll Win: Against a rookie quarterback, the Chargers will be throwing every type of blitz possible at Sam Bradford. The Rams don’t have many options besides Steven Jackson and it will show when they play the Chargers. And on the turf at the Dome, Rivers will air it out against a very poor St. Louis secondary.
Why They Might Lose: The Rams will have trouble covering receivers this year but they have a very talented front seven (Chris Long, James Laurinaitis, Na’il Diggs) that will pose problems for any quarterback. If the Chargers have not solidified their ground game to take pressure off of the quarterback and slowdown the Rams pass rush, Rivers won’t have time to find any receivers, no matter how open they are.
Key to the Game: San Diego’s run defense. The Chargers are going to get their hits on Bradford and likely cause multiple turnovers. But if they get too aggressive Steven Jackson could have a big game, slipping through on draws and other quick-hitting runs. The longer St. Louis stays in the game the longer they’ll believe they can pull off the upset.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Rams 28
Week 7: Home Vs. New England
7 of 16
October 24, 2010
4:15 p.m.
Qualcomm Stadium
Why They’ll Win: The Patriots will be coming off of a huge, physical showdown with the Ravens a week earlier and the Chargers will take advantage of that. More so than any other week thus far in the NFL season, Ryan Matthew will need to have a big game to pound out yards and first downs against the Pats. Although they have had a soft schedule up to this point in the season, that will benefit (rather than hurt) San Diego this week: Matthews has had the time to learn and is now ready to prove he was worth his first round selection.
Why They Might Lose: The Patriots travel well and the cross-country trip won’t bother Tom Brady or Bill Belichick. If Shawn Merriman isn’t healthy by now Brady will have ample time to find openings in the San Diego defense and have a field day.
Key to the Game: The Charger offensive line. Keeping Rivers upright will be vital but so will the running game. If they can make some holes in the historically stout Pats front seven, the Chargers should be able to sustain long, effective drives. They don’t have to score every time, but a handful of three and outs from the Charger will crush their chances.
Prediction: Patriots 35, Chargers 17
Week 8: Home Vs. Tennessee
8 of 16
October 31, 2010
4:05 p.m.
Qualcomm Stadium
Why They’ll Win: Tennessee does not have the talent on defense to slow down the Chargers passing game: either via pressure or coverage. Coach Norv Turner will design a gameplan to dink and dunk the ball down field, get in the red zone and find Antonio Gates in the post.
Why They Might Lose: The Titans proved last year that having the league’s best running back (and not much else) is a recipe for an average year so Ron Rivera will try to confuse Vince Young and force turnovers. Chris Johnson’s running and Young’s scrambling might keep the Titans in the game, but it’s up to the Chargers to limit the Tennessee passing game to under 200 yards. If they allow Young to complete passes down field, the Titans will gain a lead and play keep-away for all 60 minutes.
Key to the Game: Defensive end containment and leverage. When Young breaks out of the pocket, the Charger defensive ends and outside linebackers must stay at home and not let the fast quarterback slip underneath them. If they force Young to the outside, he won’t gain nearly as many yards on the ground.
Prediction: Titans 20, Chargers 17 (OT)
Week 9: At Houston
9 of 16
November 7, 2010
1:00 p.m.
Reliant Stadium
Why They’ll Win: Houston is “it” team of the AFC but by the season’s midpoint they will have gone through some sort of turmoil: injuries or heartbreaking defeats. The Chargers are fortunate to catch them in Week 9 when some of their luster has rubbed off. The Texans finished last season in the bottom half of the league in points allowed and although they defeated the Colts in Week One, Peyton Manning still had an outstanding day. If Rivers totals half as many completions as Manning did in Week One, the Chargers will score 30 points.
Why They Might Lose: Last year it was Matt Schaub who was the breakout star on the Texans offense; this year it is Arian Foster. Assuming they both keep pace with their hype, the Texans—and, of course, Andre Johnson—will have one of the best offenses in the NFL. While Jammer can limit Johnson’s catches and yards-after-the-catch, he can’t cover the whole field. If Foster breaks a few long gains, the Chargers will over compensate, opening up huge holes in the secondary.
Key to the Game: Strong Safety Steve Gregory. One way or another the Chargers will have to rely on their safety: either as additional help in the running game or to help with coverage: that’s nothing new. But against Houston, he will have to be near perfect in whichever facet he contributes or the high scoring Texans will put up a lot of points.
Prediction: Texans 38, Chargers 31
Week 11: Vs. Denver (Bye in Week 10)
10 of 16
November 22, 2010
8:30 p.m. (Monday Night)
Qualcomm Stadium
Why They’ll Win: Last season, the turning point in the AFC West was the Week 11 Broncos-Chargers game at Invesco. Exactly one year after that crushing 32-3 San Diego win that sparked them to a division title, the Chargers are a much different looking team. But Philip Rivers remains the Chargers leader and if he is able to pick apart the Broncos secondary like he did in 2009 (17 completions in 22 attempts) then it doesn’t matter who is behind him in the backfield.
Why They Might Lose: By this point in the season, the Chargers have shown a vulnerability to quick running backs: Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles. If Knowshon Moreno is finally near 100% by Thanksgiving week Ron Rivera’s unit will again have their hands full.
Key to the Game: Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee. Rivers is capable of getting by without top notch receiving talent: even in his prime, Vincent Jackson was not elite. But in this critical nationally televised divisional showdown, one or both of the Chargers receivers will need to come up with a few clutch catches or open field runs.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Broncos 20
Week 12: At Indianapolis
11 of 16
November 28, 2010
8:20 p.m.
Lucas Oil Stadium
Why They’ll Win: Peyton Manning may very well throw for 5,500 yards this season but only because the Colts running game is so anemic. Manning will have an off-day here and there and if that happens to be against San Diego, the Chargers can steal a win. Because the Colts don’t have that standout back that haunted San Diego against Houston, Denver and Tennessee, the Chargers can steal a surprise win if Peyton stumbles even just a bit.
Why They Might Lose: A short week, combined with another night game, this time on the road already puts the Chargers at a disadvantage. On the turf at the Dome, the Colts pass rush is much better and Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney (now healthy) will zero in on Rivers almost every snap.
Key to the Game: Darren Sproles. Yes, Mathis and Freeny are sack masters together but if they get too aggressive screens and third down shotgun draws to the Chargers scat back will pick up critical yardage. If the Colts overlook the little guy, he’ll burn them.
Prediction: Colts 21, Chargers 17
Week 13: Home Vs. Raiders
12 of 16
December 5, 2010
4:05 p.m.
Qualcomm Stadium
Why They’ll Win: In other divisions, with a record hover near .500 the Chargers would be out of the division race. But in the AFC West, where 8-8 is good enough to win the division, the Colts will start their stretch run in December against a familiar foe/punching bag. And while most rookie running backs hit the wall by this point in the season, Ryan Matthews—who hasn’t been asked to do too much thus far—will come on strong against the porous Raider front seven.
Why They Might Lose: After five games in a row against playoff contending conference teams, the Raiders will be easy to overlook, as San Diego begins three straight home games. Again, the Chargers are vastly superior in talent but a few turnovers from the offense will bridge the gap.
Key to the Game: Antoine Cason. Every week, the Chargers will turn to Quentin Jammer to shut down the opposing team’s top receiver. The Raiders have two very athletic and gifted receivers in Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy. Both Heyward-Bey and Murphy are big receivers, so it will be important for Cason to either hang with them or get a good jam on them and knock them off their route.
Prediction: Chargers 28, Raiders 10
Week 14: Home Vs. Kansas City
13 of 16
December 12, 2010
4:15 p.m.
Qualcomm Stadium
Why They’ll Win: Against Kansas City’s troubled pass defense, Philip Rivers has enjoyed some of his finest single game performances and with the Chiefs far out of contention this late in the season, Rivers will once again light up the Chiefs. In light of the high-profile losses (Tomlinson, Jackson) Rivers outstanding individual season will have gained serious MVP buzz. Rivers will take advantage of the opportunity to pad his stats.
Why They Might Lose: Talented playmakers like Dwayne Bowe don’t shut down just because their team’s season is over in Mid-December. Despite poor production from the quarterback position, Bowe is a Pro Bowler in 2010 and a big game from him—combined with Jamaal Charles rushing—will keep the Chiefs from being blown out.
Key to the Game: Pass protection. The Chiefs will come hard after Rivers. The offensive line needs to keep him upright or their playoff hopes will tumble no matter what their record is.
Prediction: Chargers 33, Chiefs 17
Week 15: Home Vs. San Francisco
14 of 16
December 16, 2010 (Thursday Night)
4:15 p.m.
Qualcomm Stadium
Why They’ll Win: Playing at home, the short week will be a great advantage for the Chargers. But the Chargers passing game—especially Antonio Gates along the seems—gives them an even greater edge over the 49ers.
Why They Might Lose: Despite their lack of talent at key positions, Mike Singletary’s team will not give up and the 49ers will remain in the hunt in the mediocre NFC West. Even if they are not well balanced across the board, the 49ers have stars at several positions: Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore are threats to score wherever they stand on the field. If the Chargers don’t take control early, one of the 49ers playmakers will bring them back into the game.
Key to the Game: Guards Kris Delman, Louis Vasquez and Center Nick Hardwick. To run the ball successfully against San Francisco, the Chargers will have to neutralize the talented inside linebacker duo of Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes. Getting good movement up the middle is the only way to open up holes for Ryan Matthews to run.
Prediction: Chargers 17, 49ers 14
Week 16: At Cincinnati
15 of 16
December 26, 2010
8: 20 p.m.
Paul Brown Stadium
Why They’ll Win: They will be well rested going into a game that promises to be a real shootout. Those extra few days will allow the defense and Ron Rivera prepare a few new blitz wrinkles in an attempt to slow down Carson Palmer and his duo of reality-show hosting wide receivers.
Why They Might Lose: Expect cold weather in December in Cincinnati and the Southern California Chargers will struggle early with the elements. If the Chargers fall behind by more than 10 points, throwing the ball often to catch up will be twice as difficult in the snow for Rivers.
Key to the Game: Mike Scifres. In a low scoring, cold weather game such as this one, field position will be critical. If Scifres can help the Chargers win the field position game by pinning the Bengals deep in their own territory, eventually the Chargers will come through with a score here and there.
Prediction: Chargers 14, Bengals 9
Week 17: At Denver
16 of 16
January 2, 2011
4:15 p.m.
Invesco Field
Why They’ll Win: They won this game two years ago: regular season finale against rival Denver with the division on the line, crushing Denver 52-21. The Chargers can smell a fifth consecutive division title with one more win and Rivers—now the front runner for league MVP—wants to put the team on his back.
Why They Might Lose: Another road trip to a cold weather venue will handcuff the passing game. If, by this point, Ryan Matthews hasn’t matured into the every down back they need him to, Rivers will be tossing the ball 50-plus times in the snow. Turnovers could cost the Chargers the win.
Key to the Game: Ryan Matthews. All season long the Chargers have needed balance on offense. In a one-game playoff for the AFC West, that slight boost from their rookie back might be just enough for San Diego to eke out a victory.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 29
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