2010 U.S. Open Final, Raphael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic: Keys to the Match

Well, somebody forgot to tell Novak Djokovic that Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal had a date with destiny in the U.S. Open final tomorrow. 

And whoever that somebody is, presumably a mid-level lackey at CBS, is now looking for a job.  Good luck, my poor friend.

In a surprise twist that few saw coming and even fewer were hoping for, Novak Djokovic played spoiler by narrowly outplaying Roger Federer in a thrilling five-setter, winning 7-5 in the fifth after staving off two match points against him in the tenth game of the deciding set.  It was a dramatic end to an up-and-down match that saw Federer unable to close the door given the opportunity and Djokovic, after three-consecutive U.S. Open losses in the semis or better to Federer, finally break through against his Swiss nemesis. 

And Djokovic’s reward for his efforts?  Nadal, in the final.

Memo to Djokovic: “Yes, it’s a cruel, cruel world.”

Nadal, a straight-sets winner over Mikhail Youzhny in a yawner, was never troubled and still has yet to drop a set in the tournament.  While Djokovic is no Youzhny, it remains to be seen whether Nadal is simply that much better than everyone else in the tournament, Novak included, or has benefitted thus far from a kind draw.  Assuming Novak can get some sleep (doubtful), refocus mentally (good luck!), and bring his A-game (let’s hope so), we’ll know the answer in less than 24 hours.

In any event, for those of you who are still planning to watch tomorrow’s final (all 20 of you), here’s a beak-down of the match and a prediction to boot.

Serve: As has been well chronicled this fortnight, Nadal’s serve is markedly improved in this tournament, with added pop that’s been attributed to an ever-so-slight rotational change in his grip from a true continental in the direction of an eastern.  Whether that’s all there is to explain the improvement or not, he’s clearly serving better than ever before at the Open, with results to match.  Novak, whose serving difficulties of the last few years are also well chronicled, is serving well at the moment and certainly hopes to continue.  With neither player likely to serve the other off the court, the match figures to be decided by other areas.

Advantage: None.

Return of Serve: Nadal and Djokovic are two of the best returners in the game.  With his extreme grip and heavy spin, Nadal does have a tendency to return short in the court if he’s not aggressive enough.  Djokovic returns well off both wings and, with his two-handed backhand, should be able to handle Nadal’s slice or kicker serves to the backhand in the ad-court which have given Federer and his one-handed backhand such fits over the years.  Again, with no real weakness here on either side, other factors will figure more in the outcome.

Advantage: None

Forehand: Here we begin to differentiate between Nadal and Djokovic.  Novak has a very reliable, consistent forehand with which to continue rallies.  He’ll even hit the occasional forehand winner from the baseline or deeper.  But rarely does he make opponents pay for short balls with forehand winners like a Federer or, yes, a Nadal, whose forehand has to rank among the best in the game.  Assuming he plays aggressively, Nadal’s forehand, especially his inside-out forehand, is a thing of beauty.  Equal parts pace and wicked spin, it easily and often finishes points, even from the baseline.  Nadal, in contrast to Djokovic, is also unafraid to attack short balls with his forehand, especially cross-court.  Djokovic, who should know all this, had better hope Nadal’s forehand is misfiring or stay away from it altogether.  Or both.

Advantage: Nadal.

Backhand: Here, too, there is little to separate Rafa and Novak.  Both players have steady, reliable backhands that keep them in points, especially long rallies, and can be counted on to produce occasional winners up the line or cross-court.  Both players also have the uncanny ability to track down and hit amazing backhand passing shots, winners even, from fully stretched-out, defensive positions behind the baseline, and they are perhaps the only two players on tour who do it regularly.  Throw in the fact that they may be the two fastest players around the court on tour, and it’s easy to see why their defense frustrates opponents.

Advantage: None.

Net Play: Although neither player is prone to rushing the net, Nadal, perhaps by virtue of his forays into doubles play, appears much more comfortable there and has a remarkably deft touch for such a physical player.  Novak has serviceable net skills but at times almost has to be cattle-prodded to get there.  It’s doubtful net play will play a big part in this match since both players are so comfortable and willing to settle matters from the baseline, but as often as he chooses to get there, Nadal is the better of the two.

Advantage: Nadal.

Grand Slam Experience: Hmm, how to beat around the bush here and fill an entire paragraph?  I’ll try.  This is Novak’s second appearance in a U.S. Open final, the first for Nadal.  Novak has one major title under his belt (’08 Australian); Nadal 8 major titles and counting.  Novak has made the semis or better in all 4 grand slams; Nadal, with a victory tomorrow, will have won all 4 at least once.  Okay, I’ve stalled long enough.

Advantage: Nadal.  Big time.

Intangibles: You have to think that it was a bit of a letdown for Nadal not to be facing his arch-rival and the man he’s chasing in history, Roger Federer, in tomorrow’s final.  Nobody relishes the fight—and is better at it—than Rafa.  Still, it’s a title he’s never won and would complete the career grand slam, so it’s doubtful Nadal will be found wanting for motivation.  Djokovic, on the other hand, has to be on an emotional and mental high after finally beating Federer at the U.S. Open, and coming down from that high and then getting up for Rafa and tomorrow’s final after a physically exhausting 5-setter will be easier said than done.  It’s a shame that the players don’t have a day’s rest between the semis and the final.  I’d like Novak’s chances of being much better prepared, physically and emotionally, if there were.  That said, an extra day’s rest would probably not figure all that much in the outcome, but here’s hoping Novak has a quick and complete recovery from his victory over Federer and is up for a fight.  Ready or not, that’s what he’s gonna get.

Advantage: Nadal.

Prediction: I’d like to think that Novak has a puncher’s chance of pulling out the victory tomorrow.  I’d like to think that he can recover enough emotionally and physically to put up a good fight against Nadal.  Certainly, he’s done so in the past.  I’d like to think that Nadal will have a letdown since he’s not facing Federer.  I’d like to think that a Nadal-Djokovic U.S. Open final can somehow salvage the drama and magic that a Nadal-Federer final promised.  (There, I did it.  I put Nadal first.  See, it wasn’t that hard?!)  I’d like to . . . but I can’t.  Nadal is too tough, too focused, too healthy, too rested, too good.  He kept his date with history when Federer couldn’t.  He deserves the title and a place alongside Federer as one of only six men, and only the fourth in the modern era, to achieve the career grand slam.

2010 U.S. Open Winner: Nadal.  In 3 sets.