NFL SpreadSHREDDER, Week 1: Dolphin Darkhorse, Jet Crash

The NFL SpreadSHREDDER couldn't have come at a more opportune time.  Week one of the NFL season is just days away, and with the incessant commercialism that is the general media continuing to board the wrong bandwagon, many week one underdogs certainly have value.

It's very fitting that September 11th is on the horizon, given what I think will happen to the much hyped New York Jets this season.  Too soon?

I'll try to get all my picks in before Antonio Cromartie finishes naming his kids.  

Miami (-3) over Buffalo

The Dolphins are our no so sexy pick to go to the Superbowl this season.  Bill Parcells is not the coach of the Miami Dolphins as many may lead you to believe.  However, Parcells' eye for talent is second to none, and his third season with Miami should see an explosion of home grown talent drafted meticulously since the Parcells era began in Miami.

Don't expect Brandon Marshall to get all crazy in his Dolphin debut against one of the more deep and underrated passing defenses in the league. However, the Buffalo Bills in their first year under head coach Chan Gailey will not be nearly as cohesive as a unit as a Dolphin team that has been quietly building a contender with Parcells, Ireland, and co.

The Miami Dolphins' turnover change from 2008 to 2009 was an uncharacteristically low -25 in 2010 (and they still finished with 8 wins!), a fluke statistic that is bound to at least see a noticeable change that will add value to the darkhorse Dolphins.

Our power ratings currently have the Dolphins favored by 8 points on the road against the upstart Bills, and we'll gladly lay the three points for our only favorite pick on the SpreadSHREDDER.  Miami 27, Buffalo 14

Cleveland (+3) over Tampa Bay

If there is one over/under win total that can be considered smart money, it's Cleveland over 5.5 wins.  No team is being overlooked more this season than the historically miserable Cleveland Browns, and likewise, few teams have more value as an underdog heading into week one.

Even if you ignore the fact that our power ratings have the Browns as a 4 1/2 point road favorite, The Browns seem to be in a prime position to overachieve this season.

With the influence of Browns President Mike Holmgren creating a win or go home scenario for coach Eric Mangini, the Browns' emotional output should increase by virtue of Mangini basically auditioning for his own job.

Cleveland has one of the most talented offensive lines in football.  Lead by pro bowler Joe Thomas (the best tackle in football) and Eric Steinbach (the most underrated guard in football), the Browns should get the most out of veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme and budding star Jerome Harrison (assuming Jerome's recent fumbling problems are kept in check).

It's also worth mentioning that Browns quarterback Jake Delhomme previously spent seven seasons of his NFL playing career as a starter for the Carolina Panthers, where he played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers twice a year.  Therefore, Jake Delhomme should be quite comfortable playing against the Bus given his history of playing against this team.

The Browns' erratic play last season behind such a talented line was truly an anomaly.  With more stability at quarterback (yes, Jake Delhomme is an upgrade) and a solid running game, the Browns should outclass the rebuilding Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

It doesn't hurt that the Browns' defense registered ten more sacks than they gave up (this is a critical ATS stat and the Browns were a top ten team in this category).  The Browns will control the clock and any semblance of a crowd in Tampa Bay throughout the game.  Cleveland 28, Tampa Bay 13.

Baltimore (+3) over New York Jets

The number one credo that any smart bettor lives by is to sell when the public is buying.  With help from the HBO Hard Knocks hype machine, Rex Ryan has had a platform to tell you just how good his Jets are and will be from the confines of a brand spankin' new stadium. 

New York will have an emotional edge playing their first game on national television in Jet stadium, however that's where the edge stops.

With a 9-7 record to cap off a hot finish to the regular season last year, the Jets played over their minds against the spread.  Their average spread margin of over 5.2 points in 2009, is a fluky feat that only the generational elite teams accomplish.  Anybody else, is just uncivilized.

The Jets lost only 38 percent of their fumbles last season.  Expect that to change with the average NFL team losing half of their fumbles on a season to season basis.

The Jets also face cohesion issues with a busy offseason ripe with free agent acquisition, and it will take time for the 'upgraded' Jets offense to gel with their young quarterback Mark Sanchez.

Baltimore is seven points better in our power ratings, and our projected overall line saw the Ravens favored by 5 points.  Baltimore boasts a steady running game that will help control the oft-drunk New York Jet faithful.

Improved quarterback play by Joe Flacco, who is primed to have a breakout year, should contribute to big plays that will force the Jets into the shootout that they do not want. Baltimore 30, New York Jets 12

[SpreadSHREDDER Point Spreads and wagering totals brought to you by Sportsbook.com by way of Vegasinsider.com.  Lines and totals subject to change.]

Big Nasty is the editor of The Big Nasty Athletic Dept. Log on to twitter at twitter.com/bignasty247 and follow him until he presses charges!