NFL Week 1: Bettors Backing the Favorites As Usual

It might be a new year for NFL betting but the bettors are up to their usual habits. Starting with tonight’s rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game, Vegas will be rooting for the underdogs to cover the point spread in just about every game.

This is nothing new for sportsbooks however. No matter the game or the sport, the betting public puts their money on the favorites more often than not. The notion that they get 50/50 action on both sides of the point spread than kick back and scoop the juice is a myth. The bookies sweat the games just as much as their customers.

Take tonight’s Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints game for instance. By taking a quick look at Sportsbook.com’s Betting Trends page, 78 percent of the bettors are backing the defending Super Bowl champions -5 points.

While 78 percent is a massive difference, there are actually NFL games for this weekend that have even larger differentials.

93 percent of the money is on the Miami Dolphins -3 points despite playing on the road in Buffalo. A whopping 97 percent of the bettors are pounding another road favorite as the Green Bay Packers (-3 points) visit the Philadelphia Eagles.

Of the 16 NFL games scheduled for Week 1, the majority of the bettors are backing the underdogs in three games.

Surprisingly, 63 percent of the money is on the Detroit Lions as 6.5 point dogs as they visit their NFC North foe, the Chicago Bears. 72 percent of bettors are backing the Cleveland Browns as field goal dogs in Tampa Bay. Finally, 77 percent of the action for Monday night’s first game is back the Baltimore Ravens +2.5 at the New York Jets.

So which underdog poses the best value for this weekend?

When trying to find a ‘live dog’, first take into consideration which teams are playing at home. Secondly, pinpoint a game where the dog is getting at least a field goal.

Currently a few teams fit both of these criteria but after considering some other key factors, the Eagles +3 offers value in my opinion.

Just last season, both teams had very similar regular seasons, earning the two wildcard spots for the NFC. Additionally, the last six times these two teams played each other, Philly won each of the games outright while covering the point spread five times.

Philly being the dog seems to be based mostly on two factors. For one, Donovan McNabb has moved on and the Kevin Kolb era is about to begin in the city of brotherly love. Although Kolb is still somewhat green, Andy Reid knows what he is doing when it comes to quarterbacks. Additionally, in two appearances last season, Kolb looked more than ready to direct the Eagles offense.

Another factor why the Packers are road favorites in this game is the love they’ve been getting from the public. Ever since the preseason started, Green Bay is a team many are predicting as serious Super Bowl contenders. So much so, that they have leapfrogged a few teams and are now the +700 co-favorites at Sportsbook.com to lift the Lombardi Trophy.