NFL Picks Week 1: Predicting the Top QBs
There’s nothing better than the return of the NFL, I’m telling you.
Well, actually, I don’t need to tell you. You already know.
Tailgating, 16 games a weekend, fantasy football, gambling, pick ‘em groups, survivor pools, seedy jokes about your buddies’ favorite players … the list can go on forever.
Tonight it all kicks off with a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game.
The New Orleans Saints and the Minnesota Vikings.
Drew Brees and Brett Favre, or better known as The One That Saved NOLA and the One That Won’t Go Away.
Title defenders and title pretenders.
We got it all on Thursday night.
Since two of last year’s premier quarterbacks are welcoming the new season in the opening game of 2010, we decided to predict the top performing quarterbacks for Week 1.
BIG disclaimer: This is predicting performance for Week 1 and Week 1 only.
This is not a prediction of this season nor is it a ranking of the league’s top quarterbacks.
Which means, if your team’s quarterback isn’t on this particular list, it doesn’t mean that he A) shouldn’t be, B) won’t be any good this year, or C) is going to stink it up this weekend.
It means none of that, so enjoy the list and don’t agonize over it.
The first four names are pretty obvious selections. The last four we are going to have some fun with.
And if you don’t like fun, well, instead of watching football this Sunday you can tune into Game 1 of the WNBA Finals.
On we go.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
1 of 8
There’s a ton of love for Aaron Rodgers this season and for good reason.
After sitting behind Brett Favre for three seasons in Green Bay and being jerked around like a yo-yo while Favre began his retirement theatrics, Rodgers is finally The Man at Lambeau.
Rodgers exploded in 2009 by throwing for 4,434 yards and 30 touchdowns with only seven interceptions.
His seven picks tied Favre for the fewest INTs by a QB that played all 16 games in ’09.
Those numbers helped make champions out of Rodgers’ fantasy owners last year while making the Packer a favorite fantasy pick this fall.
As Rodgers enters his third full season as a starter and the obvious linchpin for Green Bay’s offense, some NFL analysts think a 5,000-yard season is within his grasp.
Rodgers will lead the Packers into Philadelphia on Sunday to kick off the new year against the Eagles.
Vegas either believes in Rodgers so much or a Kevin Kolb-led Eagles team so little, or both, that Green Bay is favored on the road.
Philly used to be known for it’s hard-hitting defense led by Brian Dawkins.
Dawkins is gone now.
The Eagles still exude some of that toughness on D, but the numbers are lacking.
Philadelphia’s defense ranked in the middle of the pack last year in passing yards, but it ranked in the top-10 in passing TDs allowed with 27.
All Rodgers is going to do is drop back and look for Greg Jennings or Donald Driver on Sunday. Running back Ryan Grant will spell the passing game a bit, but Rodgers will be the feature.
The guess here is that Rodgers will have a great start to a season where many people think he will win the league’s MVP award.
Call it 380 yards and three TDs in Week 1 for Rodgers.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2 of 8
Brees led the NFL in quarterback rating, completion percentage and TDs in 2009 while playing in 15 games.
The Minnesota Vikings, Brees’ Week 1 opponent, ranked in the top-10 in passing TDs allowed last year, with No. 1 allowing the most.
But to be honest, this really has nothing to do with the Saints opponent.
It has everything to do with Drew Brees and his offense.
The Saints are going to come out attacking on Thursday night.
The Super Dome is going to be fired up and waiting to taunt Brett Favre some more after his season ended on their turf last January.
If anything, New Orleans is going to try to prove that they are still the team to beat in the NFL.
They are going to pass, and pass, and pass.
This game will not be a repeat of the last meeting between the Saints and Vikings in the sense that I’m not sure how competitive of a contest it will be.
The Saints are favored by a touchdown or so, and that doesn’t seem like nearly enough.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints win by something like 38-20.
Brees can hit Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, or Robert Meachem at wide receiver.
He can hit Jeremy Shockey at tight end.
And he can even hit Reggie Bush out of the backfield.
Too many weapons, and Brees is too good.
I think Brees racks up 330 yards and four TDs Thursday night.
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts
3 of 8
A slow death.
That’s what Peyton Manning is going to do on the road to the Houston Texans this week.
He’s going to chew the clock, check down, audible, hit about 349 different targets, and by the time the game is over his numbers are going to look stellar.
The Houston Texas ranked in the top-10 on defense last year in completion percentage allowed, meaning they are a bend-but-don’t-break defense against the pass.
Manning, meanwhile, ranked behind only Brees in completion percentage.
Add in the fact that Houston will be without suspended linebacker Brian Cushing, and this is a match made in heaven for the Colts.
Manning may connect on a bomb with Reggie Wayne, but the long heaves aren’t that likely.
You know Manning’s drill.
He’s methodical and precise, and Mario Williams alone can’t stop that.
It’s going to take a big game from Matt Schaub if Houston is going to have a chance to beat the Colts. Luckily for the Texans, Schaub has that ability.
But Manning is going to get his.
Final line for Manning: 32-for-38, 325 yards, three TDs and …wait for it … a rushing TD!
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Tom Brady, New England Patriots
4 of 8
Relax, New Englanders, Brady is going to play this weekend.
He’s going to be OK.
The car accident that Brady was in Thursday morning in Boston appeared to be more serious than a little fender bender as Brady’s Audi was banged up pretty good, but the Patriots QB walked away fine and didn’t need to visit a hospital.
So with that news, I have no doubts Brady will be on the field and ready to go when the Pats take on the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.
The Bengals had a very good defense last year, and it should be a staple of this year’s team, too.
The Bengals D allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards and eighth-fewest passing TDs in the NFL last year.
So why will Tom Brady have a good Week 1 against that kind of D?
Two reasons.
One, he’s Tom Brady, he’s healthy, and he can go off at any moment.
Two, the Patriots, led by head coach Bill Belichick, demand respect and will go hunting for it if they don’t feel it’s coming their way.
Nobody talked about Brady last year, and he still threw for almost 4,400 yards and 28 TDs.
This year, Brady is two years removed from his knee surgery and has his main weapons—Randy Moss and Wes Welker—back. Welker is coming off his own knee injury but appears ahead of schedule.
But back to the respect point real quick.
Everybody loves the New York Jets this year. And I mean, EVERYBODY.
If you didn’t know the season hasn’t started, you may think the Patriots were already competing for a wild card spot.
You don’t think Belichick knows this? You don’t think it matters to him?
Watch how New England comes out.
I hope Carson Palmer is ready to use Chad Ochocinco and his new receiver Terrell Owens this Sunday. He’s going to need them.
Brady’s line: 340 yards, four TDs.
Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins
5 of 8
OK, now a little fun starts.
The Dallas Cowboys, overall, have a solid defense.
They’ll win some, they’ll lose some, but Tony Romo pretty much knows what his defense is going to put out there.
DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are both beasts that will control the line of scrimmage for the Cowboys. They want teams to run the ball. That’s their strength.
With Mike Shanahan taking over in Washington, this may seem a bit contradicting.
Shanahan, by nature, likes to run the football.
He believes that running the ball sideline-to-sideline tires the defense, which will lead to a big play later in the game.
The Redskins coach has said that Washington will “mix it up” between the run and pass this year.
Shanahan ran the West Coast offense, albeit a run-oriented version, in Denver because he had John Elway.
Is Donovan McNabb Elway? No.
But McNabb is a good QB, and if you listen to Shanahan’s former players, the answers are interesting.
“This is what I know: Mike’s offense is one that will attack whatever weakness that defense has,” former Denver Bronco running back Terrell Davis told the Washington Post recently.
And it’s clear that Dallas’ weakness on defense is against the pass.
The ‘Boys D had more interceptions than only the Browns, Lions, Raiders and Rams in ’09. Their best defensive players are in the front seven.
Hmmm.
Call it a hunch, going out on a limb, or just winging it.
I don’t care.
I’m feeling a nice debut for McNabb in Washington, something like 275 yards, two TDs and a rushing TD.
Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
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If you think this is stretching it, wait for the next guy.
I think Smith has a good week on the road against the Seattle Seahawks.
The buzz around the Seahawks this summer has to do with the arrival of Pete Carroll.
And the last I checked, Carroll can’t suit up.
Seattle got crushed by the pass last year, allowing the eighth-most TDs and the third-most yards.
Football Outsiders had Seattle ranked 30th in defensive efficiency.
I expect Carroll to bring a new life and some improvement to the Seahawks, but this isn’t going to be the year. They are a process.
And, plus, I like the weapons the 49ers have on offense.
Running back Frank Gore will butter up the opposing D, and then wide receiver Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis will exploit it.
Could be a nice season for Smith but at least a nice first week.
Lets put Smith down for 265 yards and three TDs.
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
7 of 8
Hang on Chicago.
This is not the beginning of a Cutler bandwagon.
Why I like Cutler to have a nice game this week is pretty simple.
For starters, he’s going against the Detroit Lions D, which ranked last (or next-to-last) in everything that matters last season.
I know, I know, Ndamukong Suh.
He’s a beast and I think he’s going to be a great player. I just think there defense needs a little more work than that.
This isn’t an indictment of the Lions. I love what Detroit is building and think they are going to be vastly improved this season.
The only problem is that most of their best talent is currently on offense. Give them another year to add more to the defense, and Detroit will be somebody in the NFL.
Perhaps even more important than the Lions D, though, is the addition of offensive coordinator Mike Martz to Chicago’s staff.
The Bears brought in Martz for one guy: Cutler.
Martz had the famed Greatest Show on Turf teams with Kurt Warner and Torry Holt, to name two, in St. Louis.
He’s an offensive guru, loves to throw the ball, and will help the Bears put points on the board.
If Martz can’t make Cutler a better QB, then nobody can.
With Johnny Knox, Greg Olsen, Devin Hester and Devin Aromashodu as targets, Cutler should be able to do some things this year. If he doesn’t, the QB search will continue in Chicago.
Which leads to the last point: What’s there to lose for Cutler?
He already came in and ticked off the city last year. Most of Chicago was sick of him after one season. Can it really go anywhere but up?
I don’t think so, which is why he should go out there, use his unbelievable arm strength to sling the ball, and see what happens.
Nothing would surprise me with Cutler.
He could throw five TDs or five INTs, which is why trying to dream up a line for him this week almost gave me a migraine.
But I do think he’ll have a good Week 1.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
8 of 8
The Atlanta Falcons were one of the league’s bottom-feeders against the pass in 2009, so Roethlis…wait, what?
Just kidding.
Enjoy the first week of the season, everyone, and good luck to your respective teams.
Follow Teddy Mitrosilis on Twitter. You can reach him at tm4000@yahoo.com.
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