U.S. Open and the Federer-Nadal Rivalry: Who Needs It More?

 Brace yourselves, tennis fans.  It’s almost here.

Only one quarter and two semifinal victories stand in the way of what promises to be a new, riveting chapter in the historic rivalry that is Federer-Nadal.  Or is it Nadal-Federer?

No matter.  After years of staging epic battles at the French, Australian, and, of course, Wimbledon, the two greatest tennis champions of the modern era are finally on a collision course to meet, for the first time, in the finals of the U.S. Open, the biggest, if not the grandest, of the four tennis majors.  For tennis fans, it’s been a long time coming.  And the stakes couldn’t be higher.

For Roger, who already owns five U.S. Open titles and 16 majors overall, including this year’s Australian, it’s a chance to bolster his case as the “greatest of all time,” a crown he would wear much more comfortably if not for his losing record against Nadal, who owns a 5-2 advantage in major finals, including the last three, and a 14-7 mark overall.  Beat Nadal at the height of his powers, and Federer takes a big step towards erasing the only real blemish on his career resume while putting some distance between himself and the other greats, notably Sampras.  Lose, and, well, the Swiss maestro will have lost four straight slam finals to Nadal, one in each major, effectively ending any debate as to the greater of the two.

For Rafa, current world No. 1 and winner of the last two slams (the French, Wimbledon) and eight overall, a U.S. Open title would secure his place in the pantheon of all-time greats and make him only the sixth player, the fourth in the modern era, to win all four grand slams.  Further, at the tender age of twenty-four, he would be well on his way to surpassing Federer’s career mark for major wins and building his own case for “greatest” ever.  Lose to Federer on Nadal’s least favorite surface, and there’s always next year, or the year after.  At twenty-nine, Federer’s bound to get old and bow out eventually!

It seems all but certain that Roger himself knows his days competing at the highest level—and prospects for beating Nadal, on any surface—are numbered.  No longer able to dominate the tour on sheer talent alone, Federer seems intent on pulling out all the stops to extend his reign at or near the top as long as possible.  To that end, he hired Paul Annacone, architect of Sampras’ last major win at the ripe old age of 32, and although it’s premature to call his hire an inspired move, the early returns are promising.  In U.S. Open tune-ups in Toronto and Cincinnati, Federer, looking fresh, played loose and well, winning the latter.  And his play thus far in New York, where he hasn’t dropped a set in five matches, has been much the same.

Not to be outdone, Rafa, by comparison, has also gone to greater lengths this year to maximize his chances of winning the Open.  Under Uncle Toni’s watchful eye, Rafa, whose more bruising style of play exacts a greater physical toll as the season wears on, took pains to limit his playing schedule so as to minimize wear and tear and come into the year’s last major firing on all cylinders.  The results, in New York anyway, speak for themselves.  In four matches, Rafa hasn’t dropped a single service game, much less a set.  And his serve, once considered the weakest part of his game, has been routinely hitting 125-130 mph and is a bona-fide strength.  Of course, it hasn’t hurt Nadal that he won’t have to face Del Potro (sidelined by injury), Soderling (Federer’s side of the draw), or Murray (eliminated by Wawrinka), three players who, like Federer, have given him trouble in the past in majors and would have had a legitimate chance to send him packing before the final.

Who, then, has the upper hand?  Depends on how you interpret the past.  On the one hand, history would seem to favor Nadal, who is healthy, playing as well as he ever has, and, by virtue of his better head-to-head record, may have the mental edge over Federer.  On the other hand, Roger would be playing in his seventh-straight U.S. Open final, Rafa in his first.

The only thing that history tells us for sure about a potential Federer-Nadal final in the 2010 U.S. Open is that it is a matchup for the ages and, with all due respect to the three remaining players not named Federer or Nadal, the one tennis fans the world over want to see.

So, who needs it more?  The answer: Mr. Federer.  No question.  Though still formidable and completely capable of winning any tournament he enters, he is, at 29, much closer to the end of his career than the beginning.  Opportunities to win majors, once a forgone conclusion for Federer, are on the verge of becoming fewer and farther between.  But his biggest motivation, by far, is Nadal and the pesky 2-5 advantage the latter owns in slam finals head-to-head.  And the U.S. Open, where Federer owns five titles and Nadal zero, is to Federer what the French is to Nadal—that is, exclusive stomping grounds.  His tournament to win.  Unbeaten by his rival.  And the only major where he can still say that.

Yes, Roger definitely needs this title more.  His end of the rivalry—of Federer-Nadal, or is it Nadal-Federer?—hangs in the balance.