Boise State: Are Broncos Championship Caliber Or Just The Latest Media Darling?

Setting the table

Boise State started the season in a typical Boise State manner, with their one big game of the season against a BCS AQ school; this year it was VA Tech, the last two seasons it was Oregon, and it was Washington before that.  The Boise coaches, fans, and players as well as the rest of the college football community know perfectly well that beyond Boise’s one big game at the beginning of the year there is not even a stone to stumble upon the rest of the season.  This formula has worked for the Broncos to get a couple of BCS invitations in the past, so if it’s not broke why fix it; good for you Boise State.

Although this season has a little twist to it with Boise State taking on Oregon State in a few weeks most feel that their biggest hurdle has already been cleared and that was only on week 1 of the season.  While most schools have to worry about tough opponents sprinkled throughout their season and many have to play quality teams on back-to-back weeks the Boise State coaches, fans, and players can let out a collective sigh of relief knowing that they did what they needed to do and now their winter practice schedule can begin.

You really can’t blame Boise State, they schedule smart and they play within the rules set forth by the college football community to try and secure a spot in a BCS bowl and it has worked for them.

The main course is done

Boise State is in the unique position of being a big fish in a very, very small pond; one may even call it a puddle.  In fact they are the only fish of any significant size in the WAC.  I know Fresno State has some football success and Nevada is an up and coming program but to honestly earn a BCS berth you should try and play some tough competition throughout your season.

Assuming they get past Oregon State (a team beaten by TCU this past week) Boise gets the luxury of having the rest of the season to hone their skills each week by participating in what are basically little more than glorified scrimmages against their conference foes.  While Boise State gets to enjoy a leisurely diet of guppies for the rest of the season, allowing them to rest and protect their starters, other teams from bigger conferences working towards earning a spot in a BCS bowl will need to deal with the grueling routine of major college football for the rest of the season.

Few teams will make it to the end of the season without losing starters to injury.  In addition the normal grind and emotional roller coaster of having to play against real competition each week will also take its toll on teams.  Meanwhile the Broncos of Boise State will barely have to break a sweat, but you can’t blame them, they can only play whoever is on their schedule.

Dessert time, cupcakes

Should all the moons line up just right Boise State will once again have the opportunity to play in a BCS bowl.  Well rested and having to get up emotionally for only their second time in the season they will once again have an advantage against a bruised and weary foe which had to actually earn their way into a BCS game by playing good competition and surviving throughout the season.

After dinner conversation

What will it take for Boise State to make it to a BCS game much less the National Championship game?

First and foremost, Boise fans need to cheer on Virginia Tech and hope the Hokies run the rest of the table.  Should this happen then Boise could be given the benefit of the doubt that they actually beat a decent team even though their strength of schedule (SOS) as a whole will more than likely be in the 90s out of 120.  If VT ends the season at 8-3 or 7-4 without the ACC title then Boise’s win over VT looks ho-hum.  And if VT should lose to James Madison this week then Boise’s signature win of the season suddenly looks awful.

Second, Boise State needs to go undefeated.  A one loss Boise State should rightly be leapfrogged by every other team that has just one loss simply due to Boise’s horrific SOS.  The caveat here would be if VA Tech ends up going undefeated the rest of the season, this could save a one loss Boise State and allow them into a BCS game but not the NC

Third, for Boise State to make it to the National Championship game less than two BCS AQ teams can go undefeated (except for someone from the Big East).  Any two undefeated champions of the Big-12, Big-10, Pac-10, SEC, or ACC hands down deserve to be in the National Title game ahead of an undefeated Boise State.  These teams would have proven themselves worthy on the gridiron throughout the whole season while Boise got to sit around and read their headlines.  I purposely excluded an undefeated conference champ from the Big East from this discussion, the Big East is pretty weak and one could argue that an undefeated Boise State should get the nod ahead of an undefeated Big East team but let’s take a look at the SOS at the end of the season.

The final roadblock Boise State will need removed to give them a shot at being invited to the National Championship game is to not have TCU, Utah, or BYU go undefeated.  This issue is out of Boise’s control.  Should any of these MWC schools go undefeated they would have a SOS far superior to Boise’s and should step over Boise in the rankings, the computer polls will make the correct adjustment but I am not sure if the human polls would.  For one of these three schools to go undefeated they would have to beat the other two so Boise State has this in their favor.  But by beating the other two one teams SOS will soar. 

Should BYU go undefeated they would have the highest possible SOS of the three having beaten Florida State, TCU, and Utah all on the road.  Personally I think this is the least likely of the three to go undefeated.

Utah would be next, having already beaten Pittsburgh and should they defeat a rising Notre Dame on the road they get both BYU and TCU at home.  Should the Utes go undefeated their SOS would not be as good as an undefeated BYU’s but it would still be a lot better than Boise’s.

And that brings us to TCU who I think will go undefeated this season and, should Boise State also go undefeated, cause a huge headache for the gatekeepers of the National Championship game.  TCU’s overall schedule is weaker than BYU and Utah’s but will still be far above Boise’s.  While everyone will be keeping an eye on the media darling Boise State throughout the season and checking their progress each week TCU is in a perfect position to snatch the golden ring from Boise State’s grasp in the final weeks of the season.

Clean-up the dishes and say good-bye to your guests

Although Boise State fans, coaches, and players are all giddy about the prospect of going to the National Championship game now that their one hurdle has been cleared there are still many obstacles in their way, many of which the Broncos have absolutely no power over.

Boise State is a decent team and they work the college football system to their benefit, you cannot fault them at doing so.  Could they survive a season in a BCS AQ conference?  They might have a chance in the Big East but other than that they would more than likely end up in the middle third of a conference simply due to the weekly wear and tear that they have not had to deal with before.

Next season with Boise State’s move to the MWC their SOS will increase drastically but with BYU moving on to the greener pastures of independence and Utah moving to the Pac-10 the MWC will not be as strong as it has been.  It will be interesting to keep an eye on how well the Broncos do in a bigger pond.

The bottom line is that the current BCS system is badly flawed.  How good is Boise State?  We may never know because IF they make it to a BCS game it may be against the lowest rated AQ team.  If a playoff system was in place Boise State (along with every other ranked football team) would have the opportunity to prove itself against great competition on the gridiron, with the current system we can only speculate.