2010 NFL Season Preview: Bold Predictions and Standings Projections
Screw Christmas, the beginning of the football season is the most wonderful time of the year.
Tonight Minnesota and New Orleans open the season in a rematch of last season's NFC Championship Game and I couldn't be more excited.
Well, that's a lie. I was more excited for the fight between Sammi Sweetheart and J-Woww on "Jersey Shore" last week, but I'm still ecstatic for football to start again.
And, with a "likely" lockout looming in 2011, tonight could be the last "opening night" we see for a while.
Therefore, I thought it was only right for me to keep the good times rolling and give you a massive 2010 NFL season preview to read before tonight's game along with my Week One picks.
(Remember, an asterisk (*) means that team is a Wild Card team for their conference)
AFC East
1 of 43
And here are the selections for the AFC East Division....
1. New England Patriots
2 of 43
Vegas Over/Under Wins: 9.5
Take: The over
My Record Projection: 11-5
Most Interesting Storyline: How much will individual contract disputes fracture team unity?
Bold Prediction: Taking the under on the following for Randy Moss: 70 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards, 8 TDs
My Thoughts: Doubt is starting to creep in the always panicking New England area that the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick dynasty is beginning its slow and painful death.
After an obliteration at the hands of Baltimore in last year's Wildcard Round and an offseason where individual contract complaints became the overriding organizational theme, who can truly blame them? If Belichick is still had a vice grip on the organization, do you not think holdout guard Logan Mankins would be either be in Patriots camp or already traded to an idiotic organization?
Well, quite frankly, the answer is yes. Both the Patriots and their coach have glaring weaknesses (most namely the Pats talented, yet somehow atrocious defense).
Regardless, I'll take Belichick, Brady, and Moss at 85 percent of their former selves over most teams any day of the week.
2. Miami Dolphins*
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 8.5
Take: Stay away (unless you have a gambling problem, then take the over)
My Record Projection: 10-6
Most Interesting Storyline: Whether the team's two resident lunatics (Brandon Marshall and Ricky Williams) will become the best of friends or bitter enemies.
Bold Prediction: Ronnie Brown plays in all 16 games and rushes for over 1,200 yards and 15 TDs.
My Thoughts: Nothing about the Miami Dolphins is exciting enough to quell any of the excitement for the upcoming Miami Heat season. Well, except for the fact that they're an exceptionally run organization with talented players and an exceptionally unique coaching staff. Except the team isn't unique in the fun way.
Their "Wildcat" offense—revolutionary in its inception—is now run by teams whose players are more electric. Their best player (WR Brandon Marshall) is dominant, but doesn't make "wow" plays. Combine those factors with the fact that Chad Henne is a question mark at best; many are sleeping on Miami this year.
I'm just not among them. What the Dolphins lack in excitement and big-play ability, they recoup in execution and coaching.
Think of them as "60 Minutes". No one is going to be impressed when you tell them you're watching "60 Minutes" (as opposed to shows such as Emmy darlings "Mad Men" or "Breaking Bad"), but after the show is over, you always feel as if you spend your time doing something worthwhile.
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3. New York Jets
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 9.5
Take: The under
My Record Projection: 7-9
Most Interesting Storyline: Darrelle Revis once again proving that training camp is a meaningless exercise perpetuated simply by tradition and not by necessity.
Bold Prediction: Mark Sanchez leads the NFL in interceptions.
My Thoughts: After an improbable playoff run last season the Jets have become the en vogue pick for as AFC East champion and not without good reason. Armed with a bunch of new offensive weapons, the keys to a successful Jets season rest in the hands of second-year QB Mark Sanchez.
I'm just not so sure that's a good thing.
According to Football Outsider's DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) statistic, Sanchez ranked 38th (behind the likes of Daunte Culpepper, Josh Johnson, and Ryan Fizpatrick among others) out of the 46 QBs that qualified for the stat.
And they're giving him more responsibility?
Um, OK. You do that.
Meanwhile I'll be making money on the under.
4. Buffalo Bills
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 5.5
Take: The Under
My Record Projection: 2-14
Most Interesting Storyline: The team's ongoing subtle move to Toronto.
Bold Prediction: C.J. Spiller has less than 750 total yards.
My Thoughts: There is absolutely nothing on this team to be excited about not named Spiller. The quarterback sucks, the line sucks, the receivers suck, and almost the entire defense is horrible.
It's my theory that Buffalo management is slowly making this team so atrocious that the city of Buffalo throws a parade the day they move to Toronto.
Who I truly feel for are the fans. Buffalo fans are among the best fans in the NFL and continue to support their team despite management flipping them the proverbial middle finger for the better part of the past decade.
AFC North
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And here are the selections for the AFC North Division....
1. Baltimore Ravens
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 10
Take: The Over
My Record Projection: 11-5
Most Interesting Storyline: Why Baltimore is accumulating the largest collection of possession receivers in NFL history.
Bold Prediction: Derrick Mason, not Anquan Boldin or T.J. Houshmandzadeh, leads the Ravens in receptions and receiving yards.
My Thoughts: Baltimore's "much improved" offense is the calling card to the Ravens Super Bowl Champion bandwagon. But, really, how much better is Baltimore's offense than the 2009 version?
Yes, Anquan Boldin is an upgrade over 2009 No. 1 receiver Derrick Mason. But he's also a 29-year-old possession receiver who has only played in 16 games in one season out of the last six. In case your basic division skills aren't up to par, that gives Bolden exactly a 16.7 percent chance of playing all 16 games this season. Factor in age and the AFC North's physical nature; I say that percentage is probably not even double digits.
In addition, why does everyone suddenly seem ready to anoint Joe Flacco as an elite NFL QB? Has he ever single-handedly led a team to victory in the fourth quarter or shown any of the leadership skills of a Manning or Brady? If he has, I haven't seen it.
The calling card of this team (and the reason why I'm picking them as division champs) is and always will be its defense. While the defense is not an all-time great (nor is the offense as putrid for that matter), if given the choice between having Joe Flacco or Ray Lewis on the field during crunch time, I'm always choosing Lewis.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers*
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 9
Take: The over
My Record Projection: 10-6
Most Interesting Storyline: What the funniest variation of the "Ben Roethlisberger walks into a bar..." joke my friends and I can make during the season.
Bold Prediction: Ben Roethlisberger makes the AFC Pro Bowl team.
My Thoughts: The Steelers playoff hopes are wholly contingent on the team going at least 2-2 while Ben Roethlisberger serves his four-game suspension.
If Dennis Dixon can manage the team to .500, the Steelers skate into the playoffs on the back of a motivated Ben Roethlisberger.
Call me insane, but I feel that when Roethlisberger comes back, he's going to be in a 2007 Patriots-level "Eff You" mode.
Think about it.
All offseason he was belittled and degraded by people ranging from NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell to rapper Eminem to waitresses at random Pittsburgh restaurants. His organization considered trading him to Oakland, basically threatening to put the proverbial bullet in Roethlisberger's career's head. His teammates think so little of him they named a tight end a team captain over their two-time Super Bowl champion QB. Hell, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin won't even commit to Roethlisberger as his starter after Ben serves his suspension.
And keep this in mind: Ben was never even charged with a crime.
Don't get me wrong, it's been made inherently obvious that Roethlisberger was a scumbag. I just think the court of public opinion placed Ben in such a precarious place normally reserved for actual criminals.
So yeah. Eff you season. Definitely.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 8.5
Take: The under.
My Record Projection: 7-9
Most Interesting Storyline: Certainly not T.O.'s reality show...
Bold Prediction: Terrell Owens makes the AFC Pro Bowl team.
My Thoughts: Hate them or loathe them, the 2010 Bengals are at least going to be fun to root for/against. Well, at least until we all realize that they are nothing but a mediocre football team.
Let's be honest, the 2009 Bengals were simply a benefactor of fortunate circumstances. Their offense was atrociously predictable, and while Cincinnati's defense is very good, it is not good enough to carry a team with no offensive prowess.
And adding T.O., while a shrewd move, isn't going to help enough to make this team any better than mediocre.
On the bright side, at least the coaching staff can blame T.O. and save their jobs.
4. Cleveland Browns
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 5.5
Take: The over
My Record Projection: 6-10
Most Interesting Storyline: How mercilessly Browns fans boo CB Joe Haden simply for wearing No. 23 in the city of Cleveland.
Bold Prediction: Josh Cribbs scores no special teams touchdowns and has less than 40 receptions.
My Thoughts: Why does the city of Cleveland and so many NFL talking heads believe so strongly that Mike Holmgren, a man who was so inept at with his personnel decisions in Seattle that he had his GM title taken from him, can rebuild a talentless franchise overnight?
To use the famous Bill Parcells phrase, Holmgren has always been a great "chef" but has always had trouble shopping for the right ingredients.
And nothing about his offseason moves make me feel any differently (Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace? Really??).
My prevailing thought in picking the Browns to even be 6-10 is how hard they played last season for coach Eric Mangini. You have to like a team willing to lay it all out for their coach in basically meaningless games.
Look for this team to play hard, but not make too many waves this year.
AFC South
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And here are the selections for the AFC South Division....
1. Indianapolis Colts
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 11
Take: The over
My Record Projection: 13-3
Most Interesting Storyline: Whether Jim Caldwell will actually bring pillows out for his periodic naps on the field.
Bold Prediction: Peyton Manning signs a contract midseason that pays him $25 million a year.
My Thoughts: In Peyton I trust. That's honestly all I have to say.
2. Houston Texans
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 8.5
Take: The over
My Record Projection: 10-6
Most Interesting Storyline: Whether the team can actually find the fortitude to win a game with toughness rather than finesse.
Bold Prediction: Matt Schaub throws for 4800+ yards and 35 TDs.
My Thoughts: During a fantasy draft on Tuesday my friend Joel accused me of being a "closeted Houston Texans fan." (Full disclosure: I'm a Redskins fan.)
The problem was, I really couldn't argue with him.
In three of my four fantasy football leagues, I drafted Andre Johnson in the first round (the other is a keeper league where I didn't have the opportunity to do so). In addition, every one of my teams has at least one other Texans player.
So either I'm a closeted Texans fan or the team is just an insanely talented team that underachieves on a yearly basis.
And, as any actual Texans fan knows, the truth is the latter.
Looking at the roster it becomes inherently obvious that Houston has a team with 12-4 talent, but 6-10 execution. If they can put it all together, we could be watching a Super Bowl team.
Until then, they're just a (hopefully) great fantasy team.
3. Tennessee Titans
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 8.5
Take: The under.
My Record Projection: 6-10
Most Interesting Storyline: Whether Vince Young is the atrocious mess we saw the two seasons prior to last year or the renaissance man we saw in 2009.
Bold Prediction: Chris Johnson plays in less than 10 games due to injury.
My Thoughts: In an appearance on ESPN.com's Bill Simmons' B.S. Report Podcast, writer Chuck Klosterman gave a sound hypothesis as to why the Tennessee Titans are his pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
His thought (and I'm paraphrasing) is that while Vince Young will never be an elite NFL QB, there will be a period in his career where his unbelievable athleticism and improvement as a passer will meet at an appropriate time, creating a two or three-year apex in Young's career.
Combine that with an unbelievable talent like Chris Johnson and you have a recipe for a sleeper Super Bowl pick.
His thought-provoking hypothesis almost made me change my pick, but I refuse to assume 2010 Chris Johnson will live up to 2009 Chris Johnson.
To back me up, here are the stats for all 2,000-yard rushers in NFL history the year after their historic feat (taken from this article):
O.J. Simpson: 1,125 rushing yards, three TDs, 189 receiving yards, one TD
Eric Dickerson: 1,234 rushing yards, 12 TDs, 126 receiving yards
Barry Sanders: 1,491 rushing yards, four TDs, 289 receiving yards
Terrell Davis: 211 rushing yards, two TDs, 26 receiving yards (four games)
Jamal Lewis: 1,327 rushing yards, six TDs, 442 receiving yards
Add that to the fact Johnson touched the ball over 400 times last year and I'm massively skeptical he plays in all 16 games this year.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 7
Take: The under.
My Record Projection: 5-11
Most Interesting Storyline: Why in the blue hell isn't this team in Los Angeles already?
Bold Prediction: The team finishes in the bottom five in the NFL on both sides of the ball.
My Thoughts: Look for massive upheaval in Jacksonville after this season. Without an improbable winning season, coach Jack Del Rio is gone. The team has been looking for any excuse to rid itself of David Garrard's horrible contract. And the fans still aren't coming to games.
Since this team is going nowhere, let's play a game. In the comment box, post your best suggestion for the Jags new nickname for when they move to Los Angeles. Best entry wins a pack of Top Ramen.
AFC West
16 of 43
And here are the selections for the AFC West Division....
1. San Diego Chargers
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 10.5
Take: The under
My Record Projection: 9-7
Most Interesting Storyline: When will fans realize GM A.J. Smith is a douche bag and start reviling him?
Bold Prediction: Darren Sproles leads the Chargers in rushing.
My Thoughts: I wanted to choose any team other than the Chargers win the AFC West. In fact, I toyed with picking every single team other than San Diego, but never felt comfortable pulling the trigger.
Basically, if there is such a thing as winning a division by default, the Chargers will do it this season.
I don't buy all the Ryan Matthews hype, although he's going to a team set up perfectly for him to succeed.
The Marcus McNeill and Vincent Jackson holdouts further prove that GM A.J. Smith is nothing but a something I should avoid saying for fear of a libel suit. Let's just say it's not nice.
I always find it amusing when teams put bullheadedness over winning. Windows in the National Football League are so short that squabbling over a few million dollars with two of your best offensive players is simply idiotic.
Pay the men and win football games. It's that simple.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 6.5
Take: The over.
My Record Projection: 8-8
Most Interesting Storyline: Whether or not Chiefs management fires coach Todd Hailey if Thomas Jones starts over Jamaal Charles.
Bold Prediction: Jamaal Charles produces over 2,000 total yards.
My Thoughts: Out of the teams I toyed with winning the AFC West other than San Diego, I liked Kansas City's chances the best. Matt Cassel is at least an above-average NFL QB and he showed a great rapport with Chris Chambers at the end of last season, they have an improving young defense, and most importantly, they have this year's Chris Johnson in Jamaal Charles.
The key is whether Chiefs coach Todd Haley will allow Charles to blossom or continue trying to stifle the electric running back's growth. Beginning last season when Haley named Kolby Smith the starter over Charles and continuing with the signing and subsequent starting of Thomas Jones, Haley has cut the knees out of Charles' growth every step of the way.
And I have no clue why.
If Haley has an iota of intelligence, Charles starts all 16 games and the team finishes 8-8.
If not, look for another top five pick.
3. Denver Broncos
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 7
Take: Stay away (but if you must, take the under)
My Record Projection: 7-9
Most Interesting Storyline: Tim Tebow.
Bold Prediction: Tim Tebow is on the field for less than 50 plays the entire season.
My Thoughts: My two well-documented man crushes (Josh McDaniels and Tim Tebow) make it extremely tough to stay objective here, but I just don't see enough talent to justify picking them here.
With McDaniels' Lane Kiffin-like bravado, his team's performance is under an intense microscope, especially after staking his entire career on the success of Tim Tebow.
This is a transition year. Nothing more, nothing less. Look for Kyle Orton to continue proving he's an above-average NFL quarterback this season, though.
4. Oakland Raiders
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 6.5
Take: The under
My Record Projection: 6-10
Most Interesting Storyline: Why everyone seemingly thinks Jason Campbell is Oakland's savior.
Bold Prediction: What the hell...1000 yards receiving for Darrius Heyward-Bey
My Thoughts: Sure, going from a league-average UFL quarterback to a league-average NFL quarterback is going to vastly improve Oakland's passing game. But does Campbell have a receiver that will actually catch the ball? Recent history says no.
Furthermore, it's the Raiders. Much like my beloved Los Angeles Clippers, I'm not believing the Raiders are going to be good until they're actually good.
Is that extremely flawed and borderline prejudiced logic? Absolutely.
I refuse to pick the Raiders to be good for the same reason I refuse to watch/read the "Twilight" series. All I have to do is look at the basic premise (emo-teen vampire movie) and I already know it's going to suck. I don't need to watch the first 20 minutes to "give it a chance". I know it's a horrible premise that preys on the idiocy of young girls (sorry, ladies) and weird guys.
Well, the Raiders are "Twilight". All I need to see is "Al Davis run football team" and I already know it's going to suck.
NFC East
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And here are the selections for the NFC East Division....
1. Dallas Cowboys
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 10
Take: Stay away (but if you must, take the over)
My Record Projection: 12-4
Most Interesting Storyline: Whether the team's offensive line will allow the offense to reach its potential.
Bold Prediction: The over on the following for Miles Austin: 100 receptions, 1500 yards, 13 TDs.
My Thoughts: Dallas has an overload of talent at the skill positions on offense, but has massive voids on the offensive line. The Cowboys desperately need a couple young guys to step up and allow potentially the best offense in the NFL to blossom.
If Dallas finds those two or three solid offensive linemen, we could be looking at the eventual Super Bowl champion.
If not, Dallas is the exact same team as last season in the strongest division in football.
Luckily, pass rushing is one of the few weaknesses for teams in the NFC East. So Dallas should easily walk away with its second consecutive NFC East championship.
2. Washington Redskins*
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 7.5
Take: The over
My Record Projection: 10-6
Most Interesting Storyline: The entire team.
Bold Prediction: Albert Haynesworth makes the NFC Pro Bowl team as a member of the Washington Redskins.
My Thoughts: My Redskins are easily the most intriguing team coming into the 2010 NFL season.
On one side of the ball, the Redskins have the Donovan McNabb saga. After years of doubt and criticism in Philadelphia, the Eagles finally shipped McNabb out-of-town. The move was not unexpected (the Eagles made it obvious that ridding themselves of McNabb was priority No. 1 for their offseason), but what was unexpected was Philly moving McNabb to their NFC East rival Redskins.
Many feel that Philly swapping McNabb within the division was one final slap to their former franchise QB's face.
And Redskin fans hope that motivates McNabb to take his game to unforeseen heights.
So, basically, in acquiring their first elite QB in over two decades, the Redskins also acquired a tense rivalry with the Eagles.
On the other side of the ball, the Redskins have the Albert Haynesworth saga. I'm sure you and I both are tired of hearing about it, so I'm not going to go through the blow-by-blow like I did with McNabb.
What I do have to say is, at this point, I'm not sure whether Redskins coach Mike Shanahan or Haynesworth is more at fault in their feud.
And I don't really care.
Both men need to stop their d--- swinging contest, have a pow wow, and get this straightened out by Sunday.
If both men refuse, not even an extremely motivated Donovan McNabb can save Washington's season.
3. New York Giants
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 8.5
Take: Stay away (but if you must, take the under)
My Record Projection: 8-8
Most Interesting Storyline: Whether the defense can rebound from a horrible 2009 season.
Bold Prediction: 1500 total yards for Ahmad Bradshaw.
My Thoughts: All indications based on this preseason are that Jacobs is basically Bam Morris at this point in his career.
He has no lateral quickness, has no explosiveness through the hole, and still can't catch the ball worth a damn.
Couple that with the Giants porous offensive line and Brandon Jacobs seems ready for another awful season.
Ahmad Bradshaw, on the other hand, has a combination of quickness and lateral speed that could make up for some of the offensive line's shortcomings.
The sooner Tom Coughlin fazes Jacobs out of the lineup and supplants him with Bradshaw, the better.
Running back and offensive line problems aside, the true problem with the 2009 Giants was their precipitous fall from grace on defense.
Assumed as one of the best defenses in the NFL coming into last season, the Giants defensive player feuded with coaching and laid countless eggs toward the end of the regular season.
If the infusion of Perry Fewell into the defensive coordinator position resurrects the Giants defense, my projection may be very, very wrong.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 8.5
Take: The under
My Record Projection: 6-10
Most Interesting Storyline: Whether Kevin Kolb is actually an NFL quarterback or just another A.J. Feeley.
Bold Prediction: Jeremy Maclin leads the Eagles in receptions and receiving yards. And Kevin Kolb makes the NFC Pro Bowl team.
My Thoughts: Basically just look at the 2008 Green Bay Packers as a blueprint for what I feel the Eagles will be this year.
The Eagles defense will be better than the 2008 Packers, but Kolb isn't as talented as Rodgers.
This is a transition year for the franchise.
Look for them to be the team you least want to play at the end of the regular season, though.
NFC North
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And here are the selections for the NFC North Division....
1. Green Bay Packers
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 10
Take: The over
My Record Projection: 13-3
Most Interesting Storyline: Whether QB Aaron Rodgers will complete his transformation into Harry Ellis from "Die Hard".
Bold Prediction: Aaron Rodgers wins the NFL MVP.
My Thoughts: The Packers (along with the Ravens) are this year's "it" team. In fact, 11 of the 25 ESPN experts on their "NFL Pigskin Panel" have the Packers playing in the Super Bowl this season.
Well, unlike Baltimore, count me among the Green Bay believers.
Much like anything in today's NFL, the burden of the team's Super Bowl expectations lies on the shoulders of QB Aaron Rodgers.
After two years of excellent individual statistics, Rodgers seemed to be on the precipice of becoming a great leader last season. This is the year where he takes the next step into true superstardom.
Basically, we're looking at the 2009 Saints with a more consistent running game and a better defense.
Bet long, bet hard on Green Bay this season folks.
2. Minnesota Vikings*
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 9.5
Take: The over
My Record Projection: 11-5
Most Interesting Storyline: Whether or not Brad Childress can become the worst coach in NFL history to win a division three years in a row.
Bold Prediction: Adrian Peterson rushes for 25 TDs.
My Thoughts: The "magic" isn't gone from the 2010 Minnesota Vikings, but Sidney Rice is.
And while Minnesota has plenty of weapons to replace Rice while he's injured, those weapons also come with question marks of their own.
Can Bernard Berrian stay healthy? Can Percy Harvin get over his chronic migraine headaches? Can Adrian Peterson stop fumbling like a teenage boy seeing porn for the first time? Can Brett Favre even slightly replicate his spectacular 2009 performance?
And the most important question of all: How many games will Brad Childress single-handedly blow this season?
With all of these questions left unanswered, it's understandable that many experts have the Vikings outside their playoff projections.
Whether that is motivated by the aforementioned uncertainties or simply by a visceral loathing of Brett Favre is another argument.
But count me among one of the few believers in the 2010 Vikings.
Adrian Peterson seemed more motivated than ever coming into camp this season. Favre didn't come back to replicate his 2008 Jets performance. And people always forget this team has a fantastic defense that will take the pressure off the offense.
No Super Bowl, but great season to ride off into the sunset (allegedly) for Favre.
3. Detroit Lions
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 5.5
Take: Stay away (but if you must, take the over)
My Record Projection: 6-10
Most Interesting Storyline: How quickly the Lions bandwagon fills when fans realize that Detroit has a potential early-1990s Cowboys offense in the works.
Bold Prediction: 1,500 total yards for Jahvid Best
My Thoughts: If Matthew Stafford can harness his immense skills and leadership ability to actual performance on the field, the Lions have a potential offensive dynasty in the works.
If not, Stafford's career could very closely mirror the only player ranked behind him in Football Outsider's DYAR rating, current UFL quarterback JaMarcus Russell.
I tend to believe in the former. Maybe it's an overreaction, but after watching Stafford's leadership qualities and gutsy performance in Detroit's Week 11 victory last season over the Cleveland Browns, I cannot help but think this guy is a star in the making.
Elsewhere, rookie RB Jahvid Best simply needs to stay healthy to explode on the scene as the NFL's best rookie.
On defense, Detroit is, well about as effective as releasing a sex tape was for rejuvenating Dustin Diamond's acting career.
4. Chicago Bears
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 7.5
Take: The under
My Record Projection: 6-10
Most Interesting Storyline: Watching how the egos of the coaching staff coexist.
Bold Prediction: Julius Peppers is the next athlete to have a nude photo of himself leaked by an ex-girlfriend.
My Thoughts: My pick partially because I'm bitter that Bears QB Jay Cutler is dating former "The Hills" star Kristin Cavallari? Maybe.
It also doesn't help that the organization is in complete disarray and their solution was hiring "mad genius" Mike Martz.
And, at this point in his career, Martz's performance doesn't outweigh the negatives of his massive ego.
You know who else has a massive ego? Jay Cutler.
Both men are saying all the right things now, but once Cutler throws an ill-advised red zone interception, look for that relationship to deteriorate quickly along with the Bears season.
NFC South
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And here are the selections for the NFC South Division....
1. Atlanta Falcons
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 9.5
Take: The over
My Record Projection: 11-5
Most Interesting Storyline: Whether Matt Ryan was a victim of sophomore suckery or just plain sucks.
Bold Prediction: Atlanta finishes the season as a top three offense.
My Thoughts: Following a 2008 season where everything went right in Atlanta, almost everything went wrong last season. Michael Turner missed all or part of eight games, Matt Ryan's stats took a giant leap backward, and the pass defense was consistently horrible throughout the season.
I think with a healthy Turner, Ryan will feel less burden to single-handedly carry the team and the offense will explode into elite territory.
Defensively, the addition of Dunta Robinson should help quell their pass defense woes, but he's not Darrelle Revis.
In the NFL today, all you need is a great offense and a mediocre defense to be successful. Look for a bounce back for Atlanta this season.
2. New Orleans Saints
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 10.5
Take: The under
My Record Projection: 8-8
Most Interesting Storyline: Whether my hatred of the hypocrisy in college athletics will make me give it up completely. (Answer: No.)
Bold Prediction: Super Bowl champs finishing 8-8 not bold enough? Fine. 1,000 yards rushing for Reggie Bush.
My Thoughts: I loved the New Orleans Saints magical run to just as much as everyone else, but that's just what it was, magic. An illusion. Dare I say it, a fluke.
Obviously I'm not speaking of the Saints offensive prowess as they will be a juggernaut.
I'm speaking about the Saints incredible turnover margin from last season.
Teams don't get that lucky with turnovers two years in a row. It just doesn't happen.
Don't believe me? Read this excellent piece regarding turnover margins.
(Note: I know the Packers were the NFL leader in turnover margin last season and I picked them to go 13-3. Consistency isn't my best suit.)
Add a Super Bowl hangover to a talent-level based defensive performance and the 2010 Saints seem more likely to resemble their 2008 incarnation than their 2009 championship team.
3. Carolina Panthers
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 7
Take: Stay away (but if you must, take the over)
My Record Projection: 8-8
Most Interesting Storyline: Watching teams fawn over a coach (John Fox) who has only three winning seasons in eight years as Panthers head coach.
Bold Prediction: 1200 rushing yards and 10+ TDs for both Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.
My Thoughts: Name me one team in NFL history that had a lame duck coach and just lost its best defensive player and had a successful season.
Don't worry, I'll wait.
On the bright side, Carolina has two of the NFL's 10 best running backs, Jake Delhomme isn't within 500 miles of the state of North Carolina, and Steve Smith hasn't punched anyone in the face yet.
That's about all I have to say.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 5.5
Take: The under.
My Record Projection: 2-14
Most Interesting Storyline: The creation of a whole new level of depression after I bet my entire college tuition on the under, then the Bucs win the Super Bowl.
Bold Prediction: No player on the current Bucs roster is rated above "80" on next year's "Madden '12" video game.
My Thoughts: This organization is just a complete and utter mess. The front office purposely gutted a competitive team, replaced it with a bunch of garbage, hired an inexperienced and overwhelmed coach who openly admitted he didn't like being a head coach and started a "project" rookie quarterback, placing him behind a porous line with no talent at skill positions. Then they kept the coach for another season and spent no money in free agency.
And ownership expects fans to spend hundreds of hard-earned dollars to attend games for this bull---?
Owners like the Glazer family are exactly why I side with players in nearly every labor dispute.
This team is going nowhere.
Bucs fans, instead of paper bags, use eco-friendly ones, OK?
NFC West
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And here are the selections for the NFC West Division....
1. Seattle Seahawks
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 7
Take: Feeling frisky? Take the over. Feeling safe? Take the under.
My Record Projection: 9-7
Most Interesting Storyline: The amount of "The Seahawks?!?! What the f--- are you thinking???" E-mails and comments I get for this pick.
Bold Prediction: Matt Hasselbeck plays in all 16 games, throws for 3500 yards and 25+ TDs.
My Thoughts: There is absolutely no statistical or logical basis for this pick. It's simply a hunch.
Recent history has taught us that replacing a coach and replacing massive amounts of personnel either has disastrous effects (aforementioned 2009 Bucs) or rejuvenates an entire franchise (2007 Falcons).
With a veteran quarterback (Matt Hasselbeck), a stable of talented running backs (Justin Forsett, Leon Washington, and Julius Jones), a talented defense (spearheaded by Lofa Tatupu), and a players-first coach (Pete Carroll) in Seattle, I think the latter is a real possibility.
And, as you will read later, I'm not buying either San Francisco or Arizona this season.
So why not Seattle?
2. San Francisco 49ers
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 9
Take: The under
My Record Projection: 8-8
Most Interesting Storyline: Why people still think Alex Smith is even a mediocre NFL quarterback.
Bold Prediction: David Carr starts five or more games this season.
My Thoughts: No, really. Why do people think that Alex Smith suddenly "gets it?"
Am I the only person who realizes that San Francisco was a benefactor to a massively easy schedule down the stretch last season and that coach Mike Singletary thought so little of Smith coming into last season that he started Shaun Hill over the former No. 1 pick?
I love this team at almost every position other than quarterback, but as another talented team (Carolina) finds out on a yearly basis, you cannot win without an above-average quarterback unless you have a super-elite defense (Jets last season).
It's still beyond me that Donovan McNabb is not a 49er right now. Because of that, the playoffs will be beyond San Francisco's reach.
3. Arizona Cardinals
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 7.5
Take: Stay away (or the under)
My Record Projection: 7-9
Most Interesting Storyline: Why in the blue hell didn't the Cardinals simply extend Anquan Boldin?
Bold Prediction: Taking the under on 80 receptions and 1100 yards for Larry Fitzgerald.
My Thoughts: All Matt Leinart did was check down, Derek Anderson has never heard of a risky throw he didn't love.
Give Anderson half of Leinart's cautiousness and you have a Pro Bowler.
Give Anderson the unquestioned starting job, and you might have 30 interceptions in the making.
It's amazing how quickly a team can fall from grace simply by losing one player. If Kurt Warner was praying on the sidelines instead of "Dancing With the Stars", I would have penned Arizona into a playoff spot.
Put Derek Anderson in Warner's place and I'm excited to see how quickly Larry Fitzgerald goes from good solider to stereotypical petulant receiver.
My over/under: Week Seven.
If past performance is any indication of the future, I'm taking the under and not thinking twice.
4. St. Louis Rams
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Vegas Over/Under Wins: 4.5
Take: The under
My Record Projection: 3-13
Most Interesting Storyline: Why in the hell teams continuously take quarterbacks No. 1 overall without first shoring up their offensive line.
Bold Prediction: Sam Bradford finishes the season on injured reserve.
My Thoughts: Not much to say other than I hope I'm wrong on Bradford. And, to be fair to St. Louis, they followed the blueprint on how to correctly build a franchise. Drafting Chris Long was supposed to give them a Jared Allen-like pass rushing force. Selecting Jason Smith was supposed to be their anchor on the offensive line. They just obviously seem to have either poorly developed their players or simply poorly drafted.
Regular Season Awards
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MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Offensive Player of the Year: Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Defensive Player of the Year: Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota Vikings
AFC Rookie of the Year: Rolando McClain, LB, Oakland Raiders
NFC Rookie of the Year: Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions
Coach of the Year: Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks
Postseason Projections
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AFC Wild Card Round:
Baltimore (3) over Miami (6)
Pittsburgh (5) over San Diego (4)
NFC Wild Card Round:
Atlanta (3) over Washington (6)
Minnesota (5) over Seattle (4)
AFC Divisional Round:
Pittsburgh (5) over Indianapolis (1)
New England (2) over Baltimore (3)
NFC Divisional Round:
Green Bay (1) over Minnesota (5)
Atlanta (3) over Dallas (2)
AFC Championship Game:
Pittsburgh (5) over New England (2)
NFC Championship Game:
Green Bay (1) over Atlanta (3)
Super Bowl:
Green Bay 34
Pittsburgh 31
Super Bowl MVP: Charles Woodson
Week 1 Picks
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Minnesota (+5.5) over New Orleans
Carolina (+6.5) over NY Giants
Miami (-3) over Buffalo (lock of the week)
Atlanta (-2) over Pittsburgh
Chicago (-6.5) over Detroit
New England (-4.5) over Cincinnati
Cleveland (+3) over Tampa Bay
Denver (+2.5) over Jacksonville
Indianapolis (-2) over Houston
Tennessee (-6) over Oakland
Green Bay (-3) over Philadelphia
Seattle (+3) over San Francisco
Arizona (-4) over St. Louis
Washington (+3.5) over Dallas
Baltimore (+2.5) over NY Jets
San Diego (-4.5) over Kansas City
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.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")