College Football Week 1 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports

Each Monday morning, Whatifsports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win percentage) and the average points scored for both teams.

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The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts, and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension, and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

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Game of the Week: Boise State vs Virginia Tech

The national championship obviously won't be won this week.

It could be lost.

For teams from non-Bowl Championship Series conferences, a loss in Week 1 generally means the team no longer has a chance to win a national title.

When that team is actually considered a contender, the drama is just that much greater.

And that scenario is exactly what we'll see in the first week of the college football season as Boise State—a top-five team entering the season—plays almost undoubtedly its toughest game of the season against Virginia Tech at FedEx Field in Washington, D.C.

A win this week for the Broncos, and they'll likely be the talk of college football for the next three months—or at least as long as they continue winning. The big question, of course, will be whether an undefeated Boise State team would be worthy of a championship shot despite playing in the Western Athletic Conference.

A first-week loss, however, and championship thoughts are completely out the window.

So what'll it be?

For Boise State, it's more of the same. The Broncos return almost all of their starting unit from a Fiesta Bowl appearance in January, and a team that some thought deserved consideration for the national championship as they finished the season undefeated.

Quarterback Kellen Moore garnered national attention for a monster year, throwing for more than 3,500 yards with 39 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions. And defensively, the key to staying unbeaten seemed to be stifling their toughest opponents. They allowed just 18 points combined against Oregon and TCU a year ago.

For the defense to match its lockdown "D" against Virginia Tech next Monday, they'll have to slow down a team that seems to be on the rise offensively. Veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor returns with a stable of wide receivers and running backs, including Ryan Williams, who broke the program's single-season rushing record as a freshman.

Virginia Tech returns far less experience on the defensive side of the ball, but the program has been one of the most consistent defensively since the turn of the century, and particularly in the last half-dozen years.

Neither team is a stranger to playing a monumental game in the first week of the season as both did just that a year ago. Boise State toppled Oregon in a game remembered more for a post-game punch than the outcome, while Virginia Tech couldn't get by Alabama, a game that had the Crimson Tide as some voters' No. 1 team in the country for the rest of the year.

Might Boise State follow the same pattern in 2010?

It doesn't look like it.

According to 55 simulations of the first week matchup, we can shelve any thoughts of the Boise State Broncos winning it all—but it's close.

Real close.

In fact, the box score couldn't be much closer.

Both the Hokies and the Broncos rack up 26 first downs. They rush the ball exactly the same amount of times (29) for almost the exact same results (156 yards for Boise State, 147 for Virginia Tech). And each team completes almost two-thirds of nearly identical passing attempts.

Moore and Taylor each air it out for nearly 350 passing yards, but that stat means that the Broncos aren't able to keep their high-caliber opponent out of the end zone.

This time around, the victory belongs to the team from a BCS conference.

The Hokies win the matchup nearly 58 percent of the time, but by an average margin of just four points.

And either way, the game will surely have the whole college football world talking.

Other Notable Games

The Boise State Broncos aren't the only team from a non-automatic qualifying conference simply hoping to keep national championship dreams alive at the start of the year.

The Mountain West Conference's "Big Three" have similar ideas and all three—TCU, Utah and BYU—start their year off with difficult opponents.

The computers think the Horned Frogs (also undefeated in the regular season last year) will start this campaign by beating Oregon 73.7 percent of the time by an average of nearly two touchdowns.

The Utes, expected to be TCU's top challenger in college football's top non-AQ conference, lose a tight one to Pitt, the Panthers winning more than 61 percent of the time, but by an average of just a single point.

And the Cougars, still in the news amidst rumors of wanting to go independent, open up with a victory against Washington 82.5 percent of the time.

Elsewhere, it's a big week for teams with new head coaches.

Notre Dame's Brian Kelly starts off on the right foot as the Irish take care of Purdue 70.2 percent of the time by nearly a 10-point margin. And Cincinnati, with Butch Jones replacing Kelly, follows suit with a nice win at Fresno State nearly 72 percent of the time.

The USC Trojans won't be able to win a national championship this year, but new coach Lane Kiffin wins his debut at Hawaii more than 70 percent of the time. And his successor at Tennessee, Derek Dooley, cruises to an easy win over Tennessee-Martin.

College Football Week 1
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Presbyterian Blue Hose	5.0	9
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	95.0	43
Stamford Bulldogs	5.0	8
@ Florida State Seminoles	95.0	66
Weber State Wildcats	5.0	6
@ Boston College Eagles	95.0	47
South Carolina State Bulldogs	5.0	7
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	95.0	66
North Texas Mean Green	5.0	8
@ Clemson Tigers	95.0	45
Western Carolina Catamounts	5.0	7
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	95.0	46
Richmond Spiders	5.0	7
@ Virginia Cavaliers	95.0	43
Elon Phoenix	5.0	8
@ Duke Blue Devils	95.0	44
Florida A&M Rattlers	5.0	6
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	95.0	62
Boise State Broncos	42.1	38
@ Virginia Tech Hokies	57.9	42
LSU Tigers	54.4	17
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	45.6	16
Navy Midshipmen	56.1	29
@ Maryland Terrapins	43.9	28
Stony Brook Seawolves	5.0	6
@ South Florida Bulls	95.0	49
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	5.0	7
@ West Virginia Mountaineers	95.0	61
Norfolk State Spartans	5.0	7
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	95.0	47
Kentucky Wildcats	50.9	29
@ Louisville Cardinals	49.1	28
Towson Tigers	5.0	9
@ Indiana Hoosiers	95.0	41
Eastern Illinois Panthers	5.0	4
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	95.0	56
Western Michigan Broncos	5.0	17
@ Michigan State Spartans	95.0	45
Youngstown State Penguins	5.0	5
@ Penn State Nittany Lions	95.0	61
Marshall Thundering Herd	7.0	10
@ Ohio State Buckeyes	93.0	40
Missouri Tigers	78.9	32
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	21.1	25
Connecticut Huskies	87.7	38
@ Michigan Wolverines	12.3	23
Wofford Terriers	5.0	7
@ Ohio Bobcats	95.0	47
Villanova Wildcats	5.0	7
@ Temple Owls	95.0	54
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks	5.0	9
@ Ball State Cardinals	95.0	33
Rhode Island Rams	5.0	6
@ Buffalo Bulls	95.0	39
Hampton Pirates	5.0	7
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	95.0	43
Murray State Racers	5.0	8
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	95.0	37
Army Black Knights	87.7	28
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles	12.3	14
Syracuse Orange	89.5	32
@ Akron Zips	10.5	17
Arizona Wildcats	95.0	39
@ Toledo Rockets	5.0	16
Sacramento State Hornets	5.0	8
@ Stanford Cardinal	95.0	62
Portland State Vikings	5.0	7
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	95.0	42
California-Davis Aggies	5.0	6
@ California Golden Bears	95.0	65
New Mexico Lobos	5.0	9
@ Oregon Ducks	95.0	43
Miami (OH) RedHawks	5.0	6
@ Florida Gators	95.0	53
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	5.0	10
@ Georgia Bulldogs	95.0	43
San Jose State Spartans	5.0	7
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	95.0	54
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles	5.0	9
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	95.0	65
Arkansas State Red Wolves	5.0	8
@ Auburn Tigers	95.0	47
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks	5.0	7
@ Tennessee Volunteers	95.0	51
Jacksonville State Gamecocks	5.0	6
@ Mississippi Rebels	95.0	53
Memphis Tigers	5.3	14
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	94.7	37
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	15.8	26
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	84.2	38
Northwestern Wildcats	89.5	31
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	10.5	16
North Dakota Fighting Sioux	5.0	7
@ Idaho Vandals	95.0	59
Grambling State Tigers	5.0	6
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	95.0	44
Eastern Washington Eagles	5.0	7
@ Nevada Wolf Pack	95.0	61
USC Trojans	70.2	36
@ Hawaii Warriors	29.8	29
Cincinnati Bearcats	71.9	41
@ Fresno State Bulldogs	28.1	35
Purdue Boilermakers	29.8	27
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	70.2	36
Sam Houston State Bearkats	5.0	6
@ Baylor Bears	95.0	45
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	5.0	8
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	95.0	48
Utah State Aggies	5.0	17
@ Oklahoma Sooners	95.0	44
North Dakota State Bison	5.0	8
@ Kansas Jayhawks	95.0	43
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks	5.0	8
@ Texas A&M Aggies	95.0	58
Washington State Cougars	10.5	15
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	89.5	33
Southern Methodist Mustangs	22.8	26
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders	77.2	39
Northern Illinois Huskies	68.4	27
@ Iowa State Cyclones	31.6	24
UCLA Bruins	71.9	29
@ Kansas State Wildcats	28.1	22
South Dakota Coyotes	5.0	7
@ UCF Knights	95.0	46
Southeastern Louisiana Lions	5.0	9
@ Tulane Green Wave	95.0	38
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions	5.0	9
@ UTEP Miners	95.0	42
Texas State Bobcats	5.0	6
@ Houston Cougars	95.0	61
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	21.1	23
@ East Carolina Pirates	78.9	34
Florida Atlantic Owls	45.6	34
@ UAB Blazers	54.4	39
Texas Longhorns	95.0	45
@ Rice Owls	5.0	9
Southern Utah Thunderbirds	5.0	8
@ Wyoming Cowboys	95.0	46
Nicholls State Colonels	5.0	9
@ San Diego State Aztecs	95.0	37
Northwestern State Demons	5.0	6
@ Air Force Falcons	95.0	53
Washington Huskies	17.5	21
@ Brigham Young Cougars	82.5	35
Oregon State Beavers	26.3	26
@ TCU Horned Frogs	73.7	39
Pittsburgh Panthers	61.4	33
@ Utah Utes	38.6	32
Colorado Buffaloes	86.0	28
@ Colorado State Rams	14.0	15
Wisconsin Badgers	95.0	44
@ UNLV Rebels	5.0	17
Bowling Green Falcons	12.3	16
@ Troy Trojans	87.7	35
Minnesota Golden Gophers	35.1	19
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	64.9	30