5 Reasons Alabama Wins the BCS Championship & 5 Reasons They Won't

As the season approaches, much prognosticating has taken place, and much more will take place as we are a week away from the start of the season.  Everyone is a prophet these days, from ESPN to the Sporting News, and depending on whose teachings you are a disciple of, you have begun to frame your own opinions as to how this next year of college football will play out.

I am no different!  I like predictions, but in the end, there is too much football, and too many days between now and the end of the season.  So why do we need more predictions?  We don’t!  But hey, this is my column and you’re reading it, so maybe we do!

5 Reasons Alabama will win the National Championship

5.  Greg McElroy.  He had the 30^th best passer rating last year.  “30th best?”, you say.  Yes 30^th best!  He has yet to loose a game as a starter.  He is an intelligent leader, and has dedicated himself to be a student of the game.  He had 4 interceptions all of last year, and a 61% completion percentage, as a first year starter.  With Marquis Maze, Darius Hanks, and Julio Jones, there are too many weapons to throw to.   Mark it down, he will only improve, and will have a GREAT year…even if he does look like Richie Cunningham. 

4.  Eddie Lacy.  As the 3^rd string tailback, he will play a pivotal role that was vacated by Roy Upchurch, but his “Up”side is much greater.  All reports are that he is right now ready to contribute, and in a big way.  He is the kind of back that would be featured at any other school; it’s just that Alabama has #22 and #3.  Should Ingram or Richardson get injured, this 4 star recruit could step in, and the running game wouldn't miss a beat! 

3.  Running Backs.  Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram.  No more discussion needed.

2.  Scott Cochran.  Through his tenure as Alabama's Strength and Conditioning Coach, the Tide has remained amazingly healthy.  There is a method to his madness, and madness doesn’t begin to describe his demeanor, and work ethic.  The players love him, respond to him, and work for him, because he makes them stronger, tougher, and faster.

1.  Nick Saban.  Mental Toughness.  If there has been a trait that has defined the Alabama teams the last two years under Saban, it is mental toughness.  With his psychological analysis, and motivational gurus, he is a master at removing distractions, and bringing a players mental faculties in line for the task at hand.  By the way, he also knows how to coach football!

5 reasons they won’t

5.  Distractions.  As good as Saban is at removing distractions, there have been too many this year to ignore:  National Championship, Heisman Trophy, #1 Ranking, Expanded Stadium, ESPN Specials, Unprecedented Access for a Saban Documentary.  Sooner or later, players buy into the hype, and  hype this big cannot be ignored…can you say GAMECHANGER?

4.  Defensive Secondary.  Mark Barron is the only back returning with any significant playing time.  This will be key, as Saban tries to coach up new starts Dre Kirkpatrick and others.  Too much inexperience to overcome, too many holes to fill as offenses will attempt to throw all over this Bama defense, right Ryan Mallett?

3.  Florida.   They are equally as deep as Alabama, and perhaps as well coached.  Don’t think for one second that the loss that contributed to Urban Meyer’s heart condition is not still living in his psyche.  If the season plays out right, they might get two chances to beat this Alabama team, and they are as hungry as Alabama was last year.

2.  Schedule.  Four ranked teams grace Alabama’s schedule at the start of the year, throw in the fact that Bama has been undefeated in the regular season two years in a row, and you have to think that something is going to give this year.  Two out of conference games against BCS conference schools, Penn State and Duke, mean it is too much to expect any team with that kind of schedule to go three years without a loss.  Also, six teams have a week off before playing the Tide.  By the way, it might not even be a ranked team that trips them up!

1.  Special Teams.  Many times last year, Alabama relied heavily on Javier Arenas to provide a spark offensively.  The SEC record holder for career punt return yards has graduated and is now collecting an NFL paycheck.  Additionally, AP All-American kicker Leigh Tiffin is gone, and in his place are two newcomers...Add it all together and you have the recipe for disaster on special teams.

So there you have it, 5 prognostications for Alabama winning the National Championship, and 5 against.  What have we learned?  Nothing!  Too much football to be played.  However it will be interesting to see which predictions become fact, and which stay merely fiction. Hey, with a column like this, I am good either way…you heard it hear first, something I say will be right!