Did The Mountain West Flinch First?

Was the addition on Fresno St. and Nevada by the Mountain West Conference a brilliant move or a knee jerk reaction? I have heard some very strong opinions about what a brilliant move this was. But to truly know whether this move was a stroke of genius or simply not well thought out, we simply need to break it down and fully analyze this move.

Craig Thompson during his teleconference to anounce the new additions gave two primary reasons for adding Fresno St. and Nevada. The first he said, was that it strengthened the MWC in its bid to become the 7th automatic qualifying conference. The second reason he gave was, it would make the conference valuable and help them renegotiate a better tv deal. But were these statements both accurate and true?

Does the addition of Fresno St. and Nevada make the MWC stronger and help their BCS AQ bid? The simple answer is NO. While the addition of one of the two, preferrably Fresno St, would have helped strengthen the MWC, the addition of both in the long run doesn't help nearly as much as the addition of other non BCS schools would have. Simply stated, the addition of Both schools does little to help the MWC in its quest to achieve AQ status. If they were truly making this move to earn AQ status, why wasn't an offer extended to Houston first?

Reason #2. Will the newcomers really add that much value in the TV realm? While the addition of Fresno St. and its #55 tv market appears to be a solid add in that spectrum, the addition of Nevada just leaves me scratching my head. Why Nevada? If TV money is one of the reasons for both schools addition, why invite Nevada and its #108 TV market? Once again, why didn't Houston receive an invite?

The truth is Craig Thompson is simply not being completely honest about the primary reason as to why invitations were extended to both Nevada and Fresno St. This point was strengthened yesterday when it was revealed that the MWC also invited Utah St. Utah St. on the other hand turned down the invitation, which may prove to be a very smart move on their part in the long run.

There was only one reason this move was made, it was an attempt by the MWC to block BYU from going Independent in football and moving all their other sports programs back into the WAC. If the move was really about the reasons Craig Thompson claimed, invitations would have gone out to Houston and either Tulsa or SMU well ahead of Nevada and Utah St. Now that we know the real motivation behind the move, we can truly analyze whether it was smart or foolish.

This whole thing simply came down to a chicken match between BYU and the possibility of them going Independent, and Craig Thompson and the remaining schools within the MWC. Unfortunately what appears to be a stroke of genius on the MWC and Craig Thompson's part, may actually blow up right in their proverbial faces. The MWC appears to have been the first to flinch.

Some have seen this move as a preemptive strike against any chance for BYU to go Independent. It appears as though the MWC has effectively called BYU's bluff. The great thing about bluffing, it becomes a lot more effective if everyonce and awhile you actually are holding the best hand.

In this particular case BYU is holding the best hand. And by moving so hastily and revealing their hand the MWC and Craig Thompson has essentially put BYU in the driver's seat. BYU now holds all the power and the fate of two conferences with in their proverbial hands. Anyone that thinks otherwise is fooling themselves. And here is why? 

The MWC just added two more mouths to feed. Despite all the rhetoric about the new additions making the MWC more valuable TV wise, the Boise St. addition barely covers the loss of Utah to the new PAC 12.  The addition of Fresno St. and Nevada would not even come close to making up for a loss of BYU. In fact, should BYU leave, Comcast and CBS have the right to terminate their TV deal with the MWC, and they more than likely would.

There is a reason why the MWC had a TV contract twice as lucrative as the WAC, which has the second most lucrative contract among the nonBCS conferences. That reason is BYU. BYU is simply a better TV draw than more than half of the BCS schools.  BYU has larger fan base, living alumni, and football stadium than 60% of all BCS schools. And of course they also have their affiliation with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, the fastest growing church in America.  

Craig Thompson had two options in this situation. 1-work with BYU and try and address their concerns, or two try and force BYU's hand. Unfortunately for the MWC and Craig Thompson either way things work out, relationships will be strained from here on out.

At this point in time, the MWC and Craig Thompson has no choice but to make nice with BYU and give in to some of BYU's demands. Otherwise, BYU could leave and join the WCC or someone else and blow up the MWC's TV contract in one fell swoop.

The Big 12 understood the importance of taking care of its stars Texas and Oklahoma specifically. How the MWC and Craig Thompson don't get that is beyond me. The loss of BYU would make the MWC a media afterthought. And the idea of trying to strong arm your most valuable commodity rarely works out well.

If the MWC looses BYU, they might as well call themselves the New WAC.