Statman's Calculator: Where The Early Draft Value Grows

History always repeats itself.  That is something that needs to be etched in your fantasy mind.  Learn from your mistakes in previous bad drafts.  Don’t worry about what legendary names you’re passing on and just grab productive players in good offenses.  Teams with poor quarterbacks won’t move the ball.  Remember that you’re only as good as the opportunities presented to you.

 

Here are a few undervalued players going into 2010 that will be given every opportunity to rack up yards and TD’s.   

 

1^st - 2^nd Round

 

Ryan Mathews SD RB - San Diego’s RB’s touched the ball 105 times in the red zone last year.  Maurice Jones-Drew (16 TD’s) led the league with 74 red zone touches, and Adrian Peterson (18 TD’s) had 69 red zone touches for 2^nd place.  If Mathews gets 70% of the red zone touches this year he has a chance to lead the league in that category which means 15+ TD’s is not out of the question.  San Diego’s offense is not slowing down with Rivers golden arm, and Norv Turner’s farm system always plows out huge RB points (look up Emmitt Smith/Ricky Williams/Ladainian Tomlinson).  I would take Mathews ahead of Steven Jackson, Michael Turner, Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Greene, and DeAngelo Williams.  When Mathews starts falling to you in the second round just think “poker face”.

 

2^nd - 3^rd Round

 

DeSean Jackson PHI WR – The speedy receiver is on his way up.  Kevin Kolb gelled with him last year and the marriage will only get better in 2010.  King Andy Reid is still at the pass happy throne which equals winging it everywhere in the red zone.  Jackson may not be a household guy yet, as he is falling to the 3^rd round in most drafts, but just remember that in only 63 receptions and 11 carries he racked up over 1,300 yards and 10 TD’s.  It took Fitz, Wayne, and Marshall 100 catches to get those stats.  Get the drift?  If he can catch 80 balls this year we are talking a top 5 receiver for sure.  If he catches 100?  Forget about it!  I have him ranked over Fitzgerald, Calvin J, Brandon Marshall, and Roddy White.  All will go before him.  Jackson should top 1,400 yards and 12 TD’s this year.  Take him with confidence.

 

3^rd Round

 

Pierre Thomas NO RB – New Orleans returns to defend their Super Bowl title and who better to steer that ship than Drew Brees.  With 110 red zone RB touches last year, someone will have to run in the TD’s that Mr. Brees arm sets up.  Short yardage guru Lyndell Hamilton is out for the year, so look for Thomas to get at least 60+% of the red zone touches and that should be good for 10+ TD’s.  He has averaged 5.1 yards a carry in 328 career rushes. (Barry Sanders averaged 5.0 in his career)  I’m not saying Pierre is Barry, but I am saying his production has been off the charts and if he touches the ball 300+ times he will have 1^st round value in the mid 3^rd round.  New Orleans running game will find itself with plenty of 2^nd half clock to burn.

 

4^th Round

 

Phillip Rivers SD QB - Quite amazing that he makes this list but he is falling to the 4^th and 5^th rounds in drafts and that is an insult.  The only two QB’s that out-produced Rivers, in terms of production per pass, were Brees and Rodgers.  Both of those players are going late in the 1^st round.  Rivers has all the tools to build on the 28 TD’s and 4,400 yards.  Romo, Schaub, Brady, and Manning will all go earlier, but Rivers had a better QB rating (104.4) then all of them in 2009.  Rivers is an absolute steal in the 4^th or 5^th.  Vincent Jackson who?  

 

5^th – 6^th  Round

 

Pierre Garcon IND WR - Remember when Marvin Harrison’s numbers started to decline?  Wayne took over almost in a flash.  If you look closely Wayne has lost a step downfield and this could be the year Garcon steps up and has big numbers.  Look for him to become Manning’s favorite deep threat and put up 1,000+ yards and 7 TD’s fairly easy.  Go with the tides. 

 

Hakeem Nicks NYG WR - Throughout 2009, Nicks proved himself a devastating downfield playmaker.  The Giants haven’t had such a big play threat since Plaxico left via jail house rock.  Nicks was able to haul in 47 receptions for 790 yards and 6 TD’s in basically 13 games in 2009.  Look for him to be Eli’s deep threat from week one and expect 1,000+ yards with 7 TD’s for sure.  Nicks will prove to be the best playmaker on the team by mid season. 

 

A few overvalued players to think about passing on early…

 

1^st Round

 

Steven Jackson STL RB – A juicy name is nice to chew on at the draft but usually ends up putting you in the bathroom like Jo-Jo “the whale”.  Steven Jackson is a perfect example of a trap player in the first round.  With 1,548 career carries, the 27 yr old has by far the most tire wear of any RB going in the 1^st round.  His 2009 stats look decent; 324 rushes for 1,400 yards and 4 TD’s to go along with 51 catches and 322 yards, but that’s still not 1st round production.  Nobody ever accused Steven of being dynamite with a career 4.3 yards a carry and I don’t see his TD production going up with Bradford at the helm.  Even a phenom like Peyton Manning threw 28 interceptions his rookie year.  Look for St. Louis to struggle to get 1^st downs and Jackson finishing up with 1,200 yards and 5 TD’s.  Throw in offseason neck surgery and you should have enough evidence to say no.

 

1^st Round

 

Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR - When you have Matt Leinart throwing you the ball it’s hard to have any sort of sunny outlook.  Where there used to be green grass and flowers has become brown spots and weeds.  Barring a sudden QB roster move, Fitzgerald most likely won’t get to 4^th round production.  Here are Larry Fitzgerald’s 2006 season stats with Leinart at the helm; 69 catches for 946 yards and 6 TD’s.  That is close to 5^th or 6^th round production.  Please disperse…nothing to see here!  Please disperse!    

 

2^nd Round

 

Brandon Marshall MIA WR – Another filet of a name to feast on at the top of the draft board.  Below the neck, Marshall has all the make-up of a top receiver.  He made his name by catching Jay Cutler bombs in 2007 and 2008 and then paid back everyone that doubted him in 2009 with another 1,000 yard, 10 TD season.  Unfortunately, a move to Miami with LeBron may leave him staring at the sun while balls are whizzing at his head.  He is already showing a tendency for drops in practice and will definitely see a decrease in targets in the Ronnie Brown run first offense.  Throw in Chad Henne, who has shown a poor ability to complete the ball downfield (6.4 Y/A in 2009), and I see a slight drop in numbers for Marshall.  Think 950 yards and 7 TD’s which equates to 4^th round production. 

 

3^rd Round

 

Cedric Benson CIN RB - With 301 carries Benson poured in some sweet numbers in 2009 by running and catching for over 1,300 yards and 6 TD’s.  Experts foresee Benson getting 300+ touches again and exceeding those numbers.  I’ve seen Benson on a ton of sleeper lists and I just don’t buy it.  He’s never shown the ability to stay healthy and owns pedestrian career rushing numbers at 3.8 Y/C.  Even if Benson touches the ball 300+ times again, I don’t see him repeating the 4.2 Y/C he had in 2009.  Carson Palmer will have to put Cedric in some ideal situations for TD’s if he is to bank 3^rd round numbers.  Keep in mind Palmer’s downfield numbers were slashed across the board in 2009.  Look elsewhere.