NFL Fantasy Football: Don't Overvalue Quarterbacks in Your Draft

Following a season where 10 quarterbacks threw for over 4,000 yards, many fantasy players are starting to make the transition towards taking quarterbacks higher in their drafts.

But is this the right strategy?

At first glance, taking a quarterback early makes a lot of sense. Drafting an elite quarterback like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees is an easy way to secure yourself one of the highest scoring overall players. After all, who wouldn’t want one of the highest scoring players? Scoring the most points is how you win fantasy games, right?

Unfortunately, it’s not always that simple. This is one of those times.

This simplistic and common strategy simply does not take into account the value of the quarterback position. In fantasy football, it is not only about drafting the highest scoring players, but it is also about drafting the players who outscore the other players at their position by the highest margin.

This is an obviously exaggerated example, but it should show the difference between drafting for high scoring and drafting for high value. In this example, we will assume that quarterbacks score an incredible amount more points than running backs do for the year.

First scoring QB – 1,000 points
10th scoring QB – 900 points
First scoring RB – 300 points
10th scoring RB – 100 points

At first glance, it seems obvious that the first pick of these four players should be the top-scoring quarterback. He outscored the 10th ranked quarterback by 100, the top-scoring running back by 700, and the 10th ranked running back by 900 points on the year.

But again, we need to look more at value and not just at scoring. In this example, the top value player is actually the No. 1 RB. The reason for this is because he significantly outscored the other players at his position.

If we assume that these four players were in a fantasy draft all by themselves, this point is magnified. If you were to just draft for points, assuming that you’re in a league where you can only start one quarterback from week to week, the draft might look like this:

First pick: You select quarterback No. 1 (1,000 points)
Second pick: I select running back No. 1 (300 points)
Third pick: You select running back No. 10 (100 points)
Fourth pick: I select quarterback No. 10 (900 points)

At the end of the year, your scoring total would be 1,100 while I walk away with the championship at 1,200 points. You had the highest scoring player, but it didn’t matter, because you made the wrong choice on running backs, where there was a bigger discrepancy in point totals.

Last year, eight of the top-11 scorers in ESPN standard leagues were quarterbacks. This tells us that the NFL has become a pass-happy league, but more importantly it also tells us that there is a surplus of fantasy talent at the quarterback position.

Given that Chris Johnson was the top scoring player overall and Adrian Peterson was the next highest scoring running back at sixth place overall (64 points behind Johnson), we can see there is a significant drop-off in talent at the running back position. Because of this, the running back position remains the most valuable fantasy position.

To illustrate this point even further, let’s take a look at the top 12 fantasy scorers from these two positions from 2009. Twelve is a good number because most fantasy leagues will have between 10 and 12 owners, so each of the 12 teams could have drafted one of these quarterbacks and one of these running backs. 

Quarterback:
1.    Aaron Rodgers – 327
2.    Drew Brees – 280
3.    Brett Favre – 274
4.    Peyton Manning – 272
5.    Matt Schaub – 269
6.    Tony Romo – 267
7.    Tom Brady – 261
8.    Philip Rivers – 258
9.    Ben Roethlisberger - 257
10.    Donovan McNabb – 223
11.    Eli Manning – 220
12.    Jay Cutler – 216

Running Back:
1.    Chris Johnson – 329
2.    Adrian Peterson – 265
3.    Maurice Jones-Drew – 255
4.    Ray Rice - 228
5.    Thomas Jones - 221
6.    Frank Gore - 214
7.    Ricky Williams - 197
8.    Ryan Grant - 197
9.    Joseph Addai - 182
10.    Steven Jackson – 180
11.    Jonathan Stewart – 178
12.    Jamaal Charles - 177

The numbers above indicate that while quarterbacks are significantly outscoring running backs as a whole, they are not significantly outscoring one another—at least not at the rate that the running backs are.

The top scoring quarterback outscored the 12th-scoring quarterback by just 111 points while the top scoring running back outscored the 12th-scoring running back by 152 points.

Perhaps even more interesting is the lack of drop-off between the No. 2 scoring quarterback (Drew Brees) and the No. 9 scoring quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger). On the year, Brees outscored Roethlisberger by just 23 fantasy points—barely one point per week.

Brees’s average draft position in 2009 was 11th overall, while Ben Roethlisberger’s was all the way down at 101st overall. When you can draft a player eight rounds later and get nearly the same fantasy production, there is no reason to reach and take the top guy.

On the flip side, the difference between the No. 2 (Adrian Peterson) and No. 9 (Joseph Addai) running backs was a staggering 83 points—nearly five points per game. Not only that, but almost all fantasy leagues require two starting running backs, meaning that the top 24 running backs would be considered "starters." The 24th running back (Willis McGahee) scored just 136 points on the year—nearly 200 points less than Chris Johnson.

At the end of the year, fantasy football is all about value. Just because you’re getting the highest scoring overall player in the league does not necessarily mean that he’s the right pick if you really want to win.

In leagues with 10 or fewer owners, this point is even more important. There are plenty of quarterbacks. Don’t get scared. Draft the positions with bigger drop-offs in talent (running back, wide receiver, even tight end) and get yourself a mid-round quarterback who you will still be happy with—even if he’s not considered “elite.”

In a standard 12-team league, you can still find a decent quarterback later in the draft. You don’t have to reach in the first two rounds to take Drew Brees, Tom Brady, or Peyton Manning.

Certainly those three players would be considered “safe” picks and will very likely finish near the top of their position’s scoring, but by drafting them, you could be missing out on this year’s Chris Johnson. After all, in 2009, Chris Johnson’s average draft position was 13th overall—two places behind Drew Brees.

This year, give yourself a chance at getting a breakout player. Don’t waste your pick selecting a guy who is barely going to outscore someone being drafted eight rounds behind him.