Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Odds & Pick: August 8th 2010

Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Under 8 Runs -110 odds
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A pitcher the Nationals were counting on heavily this season returns from disabled list a bit earlier than expected. No we are not referring to Stephen Strasburg but rather Jason Marquis. The veteran right-hander doesn’t have impressive numbers in his five rehab starts (4.71 ERA in 21 innings) but this is all according to plan. Marquis has been doing nothing but getting his arm strength back and pounding the strikezone. During his minor league stint he has posted a solid 21:5 K:BB Ratio. Over the last 3 seasons Marquis has posted basically a league average ERA and WHIP while winning 38 games and is a great fit when pitching in Chavez Ravine, just like his counterpart today, Ted Lilly.

Lilly went seven innings in his last start and retired 20 consecutive batters in Los Angeles’ 2-1 win over the Padres. This season Lilly’s ERA is somewhat inflated at 3.57 as he has been the victim of a really poor LOB% at 71%. Lilly’s ERA issues are a direct result of the ballpark he was pitching in, Wrigley and his FB% of over 51% cost him when pitching in Chicago. He had allowed 18 home runs before being traded to LA but expect his HR/9 IP ratio to drastically change throwing from the mound in LA.

Backing the UNDER on a team (Dodgers) that is batting .225 or less as a team over the last 10 games against a team (Washington) with a starter that has an ERA of 7.50 or more on the season coming off the disabled list when oddsmakers open the total between 7 and 8 runs has cashed at a remarkable 40-9 (81%) clip over the last 13 MLB campaigns.

7* Play on UNDER 8 runs