Fantasy Football Preview: San Diego Chargers 2010

Fantasy Football Spin, FFSpin.com, takes the NFL news and helps you understand what it all means in fantasy football terms.  As we prepare for the 2010 season, FFSpin is taking a look at all 32 NFL teams.  Let's take a look at the fantasy football prospects of the Denver Broncos.  Follow us on Twitter for all the late breaking news follow us on Twitter @FFSpin...

The Chargers are slowly becoming the Atlanta Braves of the NFL as they have yet to win the Lombardi despite numerous division titles. In 2009, the Chargers finished 13-3 but were upset by Rex Ryan and the upstart Jets in the AFC divisional round. San Diego is beginning to evoke memories of Air Coryell as they have become a pass happy offense led by fantasy stud QB Phillip Rivers.

Rivers has cracked 4,000 yards and averaged 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions over the past two seasons vaulting him into the upper tier of fantasy QBs. It’s buyer beware with Rivers this season as he could be hard pressed to match his 2008/2009 numbers in 2010.

His go-to WR Vincent Jackson is suspended for the first three games and is likely to holdout through Week 10 as part of a contract dispute.

TE Antonio Gates will likely become the focus of the passing game but a greater focus on the running game is also possible following the draft selection of RB Ryan Mathews with the 12th overall pick. The 30-year-old Gates battled plantar fasciitis but had a great 2009 season finishing with a career high in yards (1,157) and yards per catch.

He has been a model of consistency during the past six seasons averaging 9.5 touchdowns and should remain a red zone monster if Vincent Jackson misses the bulk of the season.  Jackson has averaged over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns the past two seasons and if he misses time I would look for Malcolm Floyd and the a lesser extent Legedu Naanee to gain fantasy relevance.

The Chargers rushing game ranked an anemic 31st in the NFL in 2009 (averaging 89 yards a game).

After nine seasons in San Diego, the Chargers decided to release  future Hall of Famer Ladainian Tomlinson (now with NY Jets). LT battled injuries in 2009 and showed signs of decline, averaging only around 50 yards/game. He did post his ninth consecutive season of double digits TDs in 2009 and could prove to be undervalued in 2010 (despite the reduced workload) as he’ll now be running behind an elite O-line with the Jets.

In steps rookie Ryan Mathews who will be the starter from day one but will likely be spelled by Darren Sproles and in the early going exit in favor of Sproles in passing situations.

Mathews has the build of an NFL-ready running back (5’11", 218 pounds) and many experts labeled him as the best pure runner in this draft class.  In 2009, Matthews amassed 1,808 yards on the ground and totaled 19 touchdowns at Fresno State which earned him All-American honors. Despite the upside potential, he’s better drafted as high end RB2 based on limited receiving skills and inexperience. Matthews only had 19 career receptions and was usually off the field on passing downs. Darren Sproles was resigned to a one-year deal and will likely spell Mathews on most third downs.  

FANTASY FOOTBALL SPIN:

Undervalued: 

WR Malcolm Floyd (ADP of 74 overall / WR30) –

With the expected holdout of Vincent Jackson until Week 11, Malcolm Floyd will be given every opportunity to emerge as the Chargers No. 1 receiver. 

The 29-year-old has yet to breakout but his Week 17 performance (nine catches, 140 yards) could be a sign of things to come in 2010. The Chargers resigned the restricted free agent to a one-year, $3.168 million contract so Floyd will be playing for his next contract. Following the release of Chris Chambers, Floyd stepped in at split end but failed to top four catches from Weeks eight through 16. He has elite downfield ability as evidenced by the fact that Floyd finished fourth in the league in yards-per-catch average.  The 6’5", 225 pound receiver has the ideal size/speed combo to thrive in the Chargers downfield passing attack giving him a chance to emerge as a legit WR2. As an added bonus the Chargers face the third most favorable schedule for wide receivers.

Overvalued:

QB Philip Rivers – (ADP of 46 overall / QB7) -

The loss of emerging superstar WR Vincent Jackson (rumored to miss the first 10 weeks due to a contract holdout) will leave a gaping hole in the Super Chargers aerial attack.  Malcolm Floyd, Naanee, and Craig ‘Buster’ Davis will be forced into a more prominent role but a greater focus on the running game is likely. Head Coach Norv Turner has a history of success emphasizing the run game as he’s worked with running backs Emmitt Smith, Ricky Williams, Frank Gore, and Tomlinson during his career. The loss of V-jax might force the Chargers to become a more balanced attack which could limit the fantasy potential of Rivers in 2010. On the plus side, the Chargers face a somewhat soft schedule as they have the 13th most favorable schedule for quarterbacks in 2010. Rivers will remain a QB1 but I would feel better taking him in round six or seven rather than the four or five based on the question marks surrounding his No. 1 receiver

Stud:

RB Ryan Mathews – (ADP of 21 overall / RB10) –

Someone has to fill the shoes of Ladanian Tomlinson and it appears that the Chargers have no faith in Darren Sproles.

Enter Ryan Mathews, he is young, promising, fast, strong, and a down hill runner. He is also in a nearly perfect situation.

The absence of starting LT Marcus McNeil does not bode well, nor does the string of bad decisions capped by the decision to hold out by Vincent Jackson.

Aside from those issues, there is no rookie back in a better situation to succeed than Mathews. Norv Turner has even spoken of the former Fresno State back catching upwards of 50 balls in his inaugural NFL campaign.

Mathews will not be a 300-carry back, not with Sproles around. But we like him for 250 carries and 40 catches, and those, in our estimation, are the “safe” numbers. That should be good enough for a top 15, easily.

Who Will Benefit if Vincent Jackson Holds Out:

TE Antonio Gates – (ADP of 45 overall / TE2) -

The durable future HOFer is coming off of what was his best season in many ways in 2009. His 2009 total yardage and YPC surpassed any of his previous six seasons and his 79 catches were third best.

Vincent Jackson will be gone for at least 3 games, because he likes to drive drunk and such, and maybe longer as he is poised, publicly at least, for a hold out that could stretch to Week 11.

This opens up the possibility that Gates could play an even larger role in the passing game and approach or eclipse his career best 89 reception total of 2005.