Analyzing NFL Wide Receiver Breakout Potential: WRs with ADP 25-36

Finding production later in the draft is how you win fantasy championships.  In this article we will look at WR’s whose current ADP is 25-36.  These are WR’s you’re drafting as lower WR2 or WR3’s.  We’ll focus on which one of these 12 players has the best chance to end up a WR1 (top 12-15) at the end of the season.  Below is that list ranked lowest to highest in regards of chance to perform like a WR1 for your team in 2010!

12. Julian Edelman – WR (NE)

His value is tied directly to Welker’s knee.  If Welker comes back healthy, then Edelman’s value drops significantly.  I think Welker comes back earlier than expected.  That leaves Edelman with not much chance to produce as a WR1.  He might do it for a week or two, but once Welker comes back, he’s back to WR3 or Flex status.   Could be great potential trade bait if Welker isn’t able to come back early.

2009 stats 37/359/1 (ADP 88 overall, 35 WR)

11. Santonio Holmes – WR (NYJ)

Suspension obviously hurts his value.  He does have elite talent.  If you can draft him and stash him away on your bench, he could pay dividends after the suspension.  Still, can’t look past the “goose eggs” he’ll drop on you during the suspension.  With the suspension, there isn’t much chance that he finishes the season in top 12-15 WR’s.

2009 stats 79/1248/5 (ADP 89 overall, 36 WR)

10. Donald Driver – WR (GB)

There are lots of concerns for Driver entering this season.  James Jones and Jordy Nelson could emerge.  Also expect a bounce back year from Jennings and more production from Finley.  That leaves Donald out of the “driver” seat in 2010!  He is currently being drafted in the middle of round 5, which I think is a couple rounds too high.  I like him as a solid WR3 this season.

2009 stats 70/1061/6 (ADP 67 overall, 26 WR)

9. Robert Meachem – WR (NO)

There are just too many mouths to feed in New Orleans.  Brees is too good at spreading it around.  Lance Moore is also back healthy.  I like Meachem where he’s going in most drafts.  I wouldn’t expect a huge increase in his stats from last season.    His catches will go up, but I think it will be hard for him to find the end zone 9 times again.

2009 stats 45/722/9 (ADP 83 overall, 32 WR)

8. Jeremy Maclin – WR (PHI)

He’s the clear #2 WR on his own team, behind D. Jackson.  He might even be the 3^rd option in the passing game this season behind Jackson and Celek.  His stats while Kolb was at the helm were horrible.  In the two games with Kolb leading the way, Maclin had 6 catches for 45 yards and 0 TD’s.  Maclin is a great option to have as your real WR3, but I don’t see the potential to put up WR1 numbers.

2009 stats 55/762/4 (ADP 72 overall, 27 WR)

7. Devin Aromashodu – WR (CHI)

I'm smelling the “Aroma”, and it smells like upside.  I would expect an increase in catches and yards, but not enough for him to finish in the top 12-15 WR’s this season.   Set your expectations and draft him as a solid WR3, with major upside.

2009 stats 24/298/4 (ADP 82 overall, 31 WR)

6. Hines Ward – WR (PIT)

Ward was great in 2009, but I’m not sure he can produce at that rate this year.   He could be asked to block more this season.  He’ll also be without Big Ben for 6 games (although that suspension might get lowered to 4 games).  Ward will produce solid stats, but he doesn’t have the upside to make a push at finishing the season as a WR1.  I’m still taking him all day as my lower end WR2 or WR3.  I’ll take his limited upside for consistency any day in my WR3 spot.

2009 stats 95/1167/6 (ADP 62 overall, 25 WR)

5. Dez Bryant – WR (DAL)

He may not carry your pads, but he might carry your fantasy team into the playoffs.  He’s only behind Miles Austin right now.  A lot of people (me included) think Austin is overrated.  The Dallas offense is poised for a huge season and Bryant should be a benefactor.  He has the upside and is in a great situation to bust onto the scene and immediately become a WR1.  You don’t think Jerry Jones drafted him to sit behind Roy Williams, do you?

2009 stats N/A (ADP 74 overall, 28 WR)

4. T.J. Houshmandzadeh – WR (SEA)

If healthy and ready to start the season, expect a bounce back from Housh.  Tons went wrong last season in Seattle.  Hasselbeck played like Ryan Leaf, the entire offense was horrible and Housh dealt with the whole lingering injury thing.  I expect all that to get better in 2010.  Going into camp he’s the #1 WR in Seattle.  That bumps him up this list.  Being an actual teams #1, means you have more potential to produce like a WR1 for fantasy purposes.

2009 stats 79/911/3 (ADP 85 overall, 33 WR)

3. Malcolm Floyd – WR (SD)

I really love some “Malcolm” in the middle rounds.  He is currently around a 7^th round pick.  That could be a steal if V. Jackson holds out until week 10.  Floyd’s value is predicated upon Jackson not coming back.  This ranking is based on Jackson not coming back.  If he does, lower your expectations on Floyd.  If he doesn’t, Floyd could be a WR1 in waiting.  He’ll be playing on a solid offense with an established QB in Phillip Rivers.  He also has to size to be an elite red zone threat.

2009 stats 45/776/1 (ADP 87 overall, 34 WR)

2. Santana Moss – WR (WAS)

He’s got to catch passes right?  Moss will be the #1 WR for the Redskins and new QB, Donovan McNabb.  Why wouldn’t his stats go up?  They will!  The addition of McNabb immediately helps his value.  Moss should post at least 15 more catches then last season.  Also expect his TD’s to go up.  McNabb will be more willing to air it out than Campbell was.  I’m expecting at least one more season in the sun!   Don’t expect moss to grow on Santana this season.

2009 stats 70/902/3 (ADP 76 overall, 29 WR)

1. Mike Wallace – WR (PIT)

Wallace is the guy that has the most potential to end the 2010 season as a WR1.   This season his targets and catches will go up.   Santonio Holmes is gone, which leaves 79/1248/5 on the table for someone to pick up.  Wallace will get the lion’s share of that.  He averaged 19.4 yards a catch last season.  Think about this, 13 more catches last season (at his average of 19.4 yds per catch and 1 TD per 6.5 catches) would’ve made him a 1,000yd WR with 8 TD’s.  And that’s with only 13 more catches!  To be elite, all he needs is more targets, and I’m banking on that happening in 2010.

39/756/6 (ADP 77 overall, 30 WR)

Article written by Rick Coeburn

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