When Alex Rodriguez went from 499 homers to 500, it took him nine games and 28 at-bats to do it. Now that he’s at 599, let’s take a look at how long to expect it to take this time.
If it took him another nine games, that would set him up for No. 600 on July 31st in Tampa against the Rays. This time could be different, though.
Since 2007, when he hit no. 500, A-Rod has transformed from a "me first" egotistical player to one who is more relaxed, looks like he genuinely has fun, and cares more about winning than personal stats. In other words, it won’t necessarily take him nine games this time.
So let’s look at this realistically. This season, he has 16 homers in 338 at-bats, or a home run just about every 21 at-bats.
With an average of 3.84 at-bats per game, that puts him at about five and a half games before he smacks 600. So if he kept up his season average of homers per at-bat he would do it either Tuesday or Wednesday in Cleveland.
The thing is, these statistics might as well get thrown out the window, because the Yankees are currently facing the same team A-Rod hit No. 500 against, the Kansas City Royals.
Not only are the Royals in almost the same situation they were in back in 2007, pitching wise, they actually have the same pitcher, Kyle Davies, who gave up No. 500 pitching tomorrow.
So maybe A-Rod homers on Saturday. However, that might be homer No. 601, because before he faces off against Davies, A-Rod faces off against another Royals pitcher whom he’s had success against: Brian Bannister.
He’s only faced Bannister over seven at-bats, but he’s 4-for-7 against him with three home runs. You’ve got to like those odds.
I’ve already pointed out that Alex is likely to hit No. 600 any time between tonight and July 31st, but where exactly is he going to hit the home run?
SeatGeek.com has actually done some research. They’ve determined that Alex hits most of his homers to left field, which is typical for a right handed power hitter.
The most likely section that he’ll hit it to is section 136 in Yankee Stadium. He’s got a 9.0 percent chance at hitting one. Next is section 135 with a 7.8 percent chance. It then goes 134 (6.9%), 235 (4.7%), and 236 (3.7%).
So if you are looking to catch A-Rod’s 600th homer, head over to Stubhub and start buying up tickets in those sections.
However, if you are really serious about landing the prized ball, you should look into “The Money Seat.” SeatGeek has actually determined that section 135, row 18, seat 6 is the one seat in the entire stadium where A-Rod is most likely to hit the ball.
SeatGeek puts A-Rod’s chances of homering at Yankee Stadium at 54.3 percent right now. I’ve been in touch with them and they’ve told me that should he fail to homer at home this weekend, they will come up with the numbers of where his historic homer will land in either Cleveland or Tampa.
So if he doesn’t get the job done soon, check back before you book your flight to follow the Yankees on the road.
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