Notre Dame Football: Could Irish be a Player in a BCS Conference?

Could the Fighting Irish compete in one of the six BCS football conferences? 

Could they play four conference road games, handle a tougher schedule, and still be in the race in late November?

While it's impossible to predict the future—in 2010 the Irish could win four games, or they could make it to a BCS game—if we look at the past five to ten years, maybe we can explore some of these hypothetical questions.

For a long time Notre Dame has played a "rainbow schedule."  Without conference affiliation, they play teams from every conference and every section of the country.

They regularly play teams from the Big Ten, Pac Ten, Big East, and ACC—they rarely play teams from the SEC or the Big 12.

Without playing teams from the SEC and the Big 12, it might be difficult to predict how they’d fare. They would, however, have trouble breaking into each conference's upper half.

The SEC has won the last four BCS Championships and has won half of all BCS Championships since its inception in 1998.

The Big 12 has won one BCS Championship and has been runner-up in five.

As mentioned, Notre Dame regularly plays teams from the other four BCS conferences. 

They’ve played these teams enough over the last ten years that it may possible to form some kind of opinion on their probability for success if they were a member of these conferences.

The college football season lasts 12 games.  Let's go back and analyze the last 12 games Notre Dame has played against the Big Ten, Pac Ten, Big East, and ACC.

NOTRE DAME VS. LAST 12 PAC TEN TEAMS

10/3/09           vs.       Washington                    W          37         30

10/17/09         vs.       Southern Cal                   L           27         34

10/31/09         vs.       Washington St               W          40         14       

11/28/09         @        Stanford                          L         38          45

10/4/08           vs.       Stanford                         W         28         21

10/25/08         @        Wash                             W        33           7

11/29/08         @        Southern Cal                  L            3           38

10/6/07           @        UCLA                             W        20           6

10/20/07         vs.       Souther Cal                    L            0          38

11/24/07         @        Stanford                        W          21         14

10/21/06         vs.       UCLA                            W         20          17

11/25/06         @        Southern Cal                  L          24          44

TOTAL:  7-5

Notre Dame has competed well against the Pac Ten.

Four of their five loses were to national power USC. They’ve shown they can defeat lower tier Pac Ten teams on a consistent basis.

NOTRE DAME VS. LAST 12 ACC TEAMS

10/24/09         vs.       Boston College            W        20         16

10/11/08         @        North Carolina              L         24         29

11/8/08           @        Boston College             L          0          17

9/1/07             vs.       Georgia Tech                L          3          33

10/13/07         vs.       Boston College             L         14          27

11/17/07         vs.       Duke                           W        28           7

9/2/06             @        Georgia Tech               W        14         10

11/4/06           vs.       No Car                         W       45         26

11/1/03           vs.       Florida State                L           0         37

8/31/02           vs.       Maryland                     W        22          0         

10/26/02         @        Florida State               W          34         24

1/1/03             vs.       No Carolina St              L           6         28

TOTAL:  6-6

Notre Dame has competed well against ACC teams and their record could be reflective of their chance to finish near the middle of this conference.

NOTRE DAME VS. LAST 12 BIG TEN TEAMS

9/12/09           @        Michigan                       L          34         38

9/19/09           vs.       Michigan St                  W         33         30             

9/26/09           @        Purdue                          W         24         21

9/13/08           vs.       Michigan                       W         35         17

9/20/08           @        Michigan St                   L           7          23      

9/27/08           vs.       Purdue                          W        38          21

9/8/07             @        Penn State                     L         10         31

9/15/07           @        Michigan                        L           0         38      

9/22/07           vs.       Michigan St                    L         14         31

9/29/07           @        Purdue                           L         19        33

9/23/06           @        Michigan St                   W         40        37

9/30/06           vs.       Purdue                           W         35        21

TOTAL:  6-6

Notre Dame has shown it can compete with mid-range Big Ten teams.

Without playing Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State, and piling up wins against Purdue, they would have a good chance to finish near the middle of this conference.

NOTRE DAME VS. LAST 12 BIG EAST TEAMS

11/14/09         @        Pittsburgh                      L          22        27             

11/21/09         vs.       Connecticut                   L          30        33

11/1/08           vs.       Pittsburgh                      L          33        36     

11/22/08         vs.       Syracuse                       L          23        24

  9/3/05            @        Pittsburgh                    W         42        21   

11/19/05         vs.       Syracuse                      W         34        10

10/23/04         vs.       Boston Coll                   L          23        24

11/13/04         vs.       Pittsburgh                     L          38        41            

10/11/03         @        Pittsburgh                    W          20        14

10/25/03         @        Boston Coll                   L          25        27             

12/6/03           @        Syracuse                      L         12        38

11/23/02         vs.       Rutgers                         W         42        0

TOTAL:  4-8

The Big East has displayed the ability to dominate Notre Dame in recent years.

While going 4-8 against the Big East, and without playing West Virginia, Cincinnati, and USF, Notre Dame may not be able to finish in the upper half of this conference.